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专栏 - 从华尔街到硅谷

Zynga首度公开募股,Facebook迎来市场考验

Dan Primack 2011年06月30日

Dan Primack专注于报道交易和交易撮合者,从美国金融业到风险投资业均有涉及。此前,Dan是汤森路透(Thomson Reuters)的自由编辑,推出了peHUB.com和peHUB Wire邮件服务。作为一名新闻工作者,Dan还曾在美国马萨诸塞州罗克斯伯里经营一份社区报纸。目前他居住在波士顿附近。
Zynga的成败系于其自身,但其首度公开募股对众多依附Facebook、并意在跟进的公司来说意义重大。

    据美国全国广播公司财经频道(CNBC)的凯特•凯莉透露【她似乎已在主承销商摩根斯坦利(Morgan Stanley)公司找到了稳定的信息来源】,社交游戏巨子Zynga公司(Zynga)计划于本周递交相关文件申请进行首度公开募股。该公司希望以150亿到200亿美元的市值募集15亿美元到20亿美元。这意味着Zynga已在二级市场交易的价格出现25%的溢价,也为不敢买入团购网站Groupon公司股票的交易者提供了另种一选择。

    不管何时打开Zynga公司的股票发行推荐书(S-1),不出意外,大多数批评都集中在该公司对Facebook公司的依附关系上(新股发行者不管取得多大成功,总是难逃批评)。

    我最好的推测是,当然仅仅只是推测而已,这波抨击将是短命的,很快就会被人遗忘。从客户的角度看,存储内存平台Fusion-IO公司对Facebook的依赖极大,但这并未有损该公司的股价。互联网内容供应商Demand Media公司承认,潜在的大患是谷歌公司(Google)频繁修改其搜索算法,但其股价仍然坚挺(虽然它一度在二级市场苦苦挣扎)。

    真正的问题在于,人们是否能普遍接受像Facebook这样的互联网公司作为一个合法稳定的平台,为其他上市公司的发展提供基础。就像现在人们普遍认可微软公司(Microsoft)或苹果公司(Apple)的操作系统是软件开发者的共用平台一样。

    Zynga公司将是迄今为止最大的一次实验,而它显然已通过私募市场的初步考验了。即将到来的首度公开募股将是一场决赛。

    译者:清远

    Social gaming juggernaut Zynga plans to file for an IPO this week, according to CNBC's Kate Kelly (who seems to have found a steady leak within lead underwriter Morgan Stanley). It would look to raise between $1.5 billion and $2 billion, at a valuation of between $15 billion and $20 billion. This would represent up to a 25% premium to where Zynga has been trading on the secondary markets, and could serve as a portfolio alternative to traders scared of getting into Groupon.

    Whenever we do get to see Zynga's S-1, expect most of the criticism to focus on its Facebook dependency (there always is criticism of a new issuer, no matter how successful).

    My best guess, and it's only a guess, is that this line of attack will be short, swift and forgotten. Fusion-IO (FIO) was largely reliant on Facebook from a client perspective, and that hasn't hurt the stock. Demand Media (DMD) admitted potential disaster is Google (GOOG) tinkered too much with its search algorithms, yet still priced well (although it had struggled in the aftermarket).

    The real question is if an Internet company like Facebook can be widely accepted as a legitimate, stable platform upon which other publicly-traded companies can build. Kind of like how the Microsoft or Apple operating systems are viewed today for software makers.

    Zynga will be the largest test to date, and it clearly has passed the private-market preliminaries. Its IPO will be the medal round.

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