老派高论一度认为，苹果公司（Apple）在市场上不管取得了什么优势，注定都是昙花一现而已。众多竞争对手所授权的广泛分布、无处不在的操作系统——来自微软公司（Microsoft）或谷歌公司（Google）——很快就会削弱苹果公司的高昂定价，夺取其市场份额。眼前就有现成的例子：Android手机军团现在已经占据了全球智能手机市场约50%的份额。

    新派高论——来自上周末发表的两篇报道——则认为，在未来一段时间里，在两大最火热的市场领域，苹果公司的众多竞争者们恐怕得一直含垢忍辱，仰视库比蒂诺（Cupertino，苹果公司总部所在地——译注）。

    辛迪•约翰逊在彩衣傻瓜股票论坛（Motley Fool）上撰文发问《难道平板电脑就要成为一骑绝尘的比赛了吗？》（Are Tablets Becoming a One-Horse Race?）接着她引用了英伟达公司（Nvidia）首席执行官黄仁勋的一段话来自问自答。这段话阐述了黄仁勋对Android平板电脑销售不敌iPad的见解：

    “这个问题事关卖点。事关零售专业技巧。事关面向消费者的营销。事关价格。”去年5月，科技资讯网CNET的作者布鲁克•克罗瑟斯引述了这段话。他认为，这些还只是小问题。

    与此同时，杰森•克洛斯在《微电脑世界》（PC World）上撰文总结超轻薄笔记本电脑市场的现状，题为《Windows系统笔记本电脑无法赶上苹果超薄笔记本电脑》（Windows Laptop Makers Can't Catch Up to the MacBook Air.）。他指出，索尼公司（Sony）和戴尔公司（Dell）早在苹果公司推出Air很早以前就推出过超薄的笔记本电脑。它们就像第一代Air一样，定价高昂，电池续航能力不足。因此它们销售惨淡，很快就销声匿迹。而苹果公司则坚持了下来。克洛斯称，第四代Air已成为“年度必选笔记本电脑”，而索尼、戴尔、惠普和其他公司则在苦苦追赶。

    他写道：“今年秋天，还会有其他模仿者觊觎超薄笔记本电脑的宝座。有华硕（Asus）的UX51，宏基（Acer）的Aspire 3951。还有传言说惠普也会很快推出超薄笔记本电脑。这些电脑的共同点是什么呢？它们都来晚了。”

    换言之，iPad和苹果超薄笔记本电脑也许不太会像当初的苹果Mac电脑，而更像当初的iPod。苹果Mac电脑问世时声势惊人，最终却在台式机大战中败下阵来。

    译者：清远

    The old conventional wisdom was that any advantage Apple (AAPL) gained in the marketplace was necessarily short-lived. Competitors licensing widely available operating systems -- from Microsoft (MSFT) or Google (GOOG) -- would soon undercut Apple's premium pricing and steal its market share. Case in point: The army of Android phones that now commands roughly 50% of the world's smartphone market.

    The new conventional wisdom -- captured by a pair of stories published over the weekend -- is that Apple's competitors may be eating Cupertino's dust in two of the hottest market categories for some time to come.

    In The Motley Fool, Cindy Johnson asks "Are Tablets Becoming a One-Horse Race?" and answers her own question by quoting Nvidia CEO Jen-Hsun Huang on why Android tablets aren't selling well against the iPad:

    "It's a point of sales problem. It's an expertise at retail problem. It's a marketing problem to consumers. It is a price point problem." And that, according to CNET's Brooke Crothers, who nabbed the quote last May, is just for starters.

    Meanwhile, over at PC World, Jason Cross summarizes the situation in the ultra-lightweight computer market with a piece entitled "Windows Laptop Makers Can't Catch Up to the MacBook Air." He points out that Sony (SNE) and Dell (DELL) both brought out razor-thin notebooks long before Apple launched the Air. Like the first-generation Air they were overpriced and lacked sufficient battery life. They didn't sell and were summarily killed. Apple, however, persisted. According to Cross, the fourth-generation Air has become "the must-have laptop of the year," and Sony, Dell, HP and the rest are scrambling to catch up.

    "There are other pretenders to the ultrabook throne coming this fall," he writes. "There's the Asus UX51, and the Acer Aspire 3951. Rumor has it HP will unveil an ultrabook soon. What do all these systems have in common? They're too late."

    In other words, the iPad and the MacBook Air may be less like the original Mac -- which had the buzz but lost the desktop wars -- and more like the original iPod.