过去几年，世间确定无疑的只有三件事：死亡、税收和Facebook不断增长的估值。不过，现在我们恐怕不得不回到前面老二样上去了。

    上周五晚些时候，研究机构PrivCo发布报告指出，近来，在二级私募市场，Facebook的市值出现了前所未有的持续下滑。

    PrivCo将数据划分为每两周为一个阶段，结果显示Facebook在6份和7月的部分时间里表现良好，成交价为35美元每股，整个公司估值将近840亿美元。股价在7月29日时下滑到34美元每股，随后到报告截止日期即8月16日，又下滑到33美元每股。总的来说，Facebook估值跌回2011年3月时的792亿美元。显然这个市值不可等闲视之，但从变化趋势来看，Facebook明年可能无法达到1,000亿美元的首次公开募股（IPO）估值目标（基于私募市场交易股价通常为上市股价的20-30%的假设）。

    PrivCo首席执行官山姆•哈迈德表示：“事实上，投资者们还不如在2月份时购买短期国债，这样风险小得多而且也能保证完全流动性。”

    PrivCo.com运营部副总裁约瑟夫•兰泽贝奇补充说：“从近期二级市场不断下跌的股价来看，熟悉Facebook内部业务趋势的灵通人士显然更愿意抛售股票。”

    PrivCo认为Facebook近期股价下跌与谷歌（Google）的竞争有关，后者最近启动了Google+服务，而且Facebook用户普遍患上“Facebook疲劳综合症”也是原因之一。Facebook层出不穷的隐私问题同样不容小觑，按计划，该公司称周五会发布新的安全策略。

    译者：项航

    For the past several years, there have been three things you could count on: Death, taxes and Facebook gaining in value. Now we might have to return to the old standbys.

    Facebook recently suffered its first-ever consecutive decline in valuation on the private secondary markets, according to a report being released later today by research firm PrivCo.

    The data is broken out into two-week periods, and shows that Facebook spent the better part of June and July trading at $35 per share, for a company valuation of approximately $84 billion. That price fell on July 29 to $34 per share and then to $33 per share for the period ending August 16. Overall, that brings Facebook back to its March 2011 valuation of $79.2 billion. Obviously nothing to sneeze at, but also not the sort of direction that should give Facebook total confidence in a $100 billion IPO value next year (based on assumption that private markets typically trade at a 20-30% discount to public comps).

    "In effect, investors would have been better off buying a treasury bill in February with a small fraction of the risk and total liquidity," says PrivCo CEO Sam Hamadeh.

    Joseph Ranzenbach, vice president of operations at PrivCo.com, adds: "Insiders, who know better than anyone what the internal business trends are, have are clearly now more willing sellers as reflected by the recent consecutive stock price drop in secondary markets."

    PrivCo attributes the recent drop to competition from Google, which recently launched its Google+ service, and general "Facebook fatigue" among users. There also are the social network's continuing privacy issues, which it plans to address today by rolling out new security controls.