几年前，风险投资家斯图尔特•奥斯普发表了一个演讲，讨论为何Facebook公司不应接受微软公司（Microsoft）按150亿美元估值所做的投资。或者更确切地说，为何Facebook不应让这一估值泄露出去。他的观点是，Facebook可能会上市，或以更低价格被收购，随之而来的压力会使公司在外界看来走上了下坡路——尽管对处于当时那个发展阶段Facebook来说，50亿美元或100亿美元的估值已经是一个巨大成功了。

    诚然，斯图尔特在Facebook一事上判断失误。但他的论断却在Groupon身上得到了验证。我不知道首先报道此事的是哪家媒体，但几个月来，一直有人公开暗示，Groupon正在寻求总额达250亿美元的后IPO估值。证券交易委员会（SEC）公开的文件中并未出现这个数字，很明显，是有人泄密。此人要么是Groupon公司的内部人员，要么是其他与公司高层有所接触的人（比如银行家）。

    如果Groupon自己就是那个狂妄自大的泄密者，那它活该要遭受来自同行们射来的乱箭。而如果是某个内部人员干的，那么安德鲁•梅森就该找出这个人来，再把他塞到《玩偶特工》（Dollhouse，Fox电视台科幻剧，主人公是一个被抹去了记忆的试验品——译注）那样的傀儡里。

    尽管问题不断，包括与证券交易委员会之间的摩擦，Groupon仍是一个源源不断吐出现金流的巨人。今年晚些时候，它几乎肯定会以某个价格进行IPO。而现在，任何少于250亿美元的估值——它肯定达不到这个数——都会给它带来尴尬，或者被视为增长乏力。Groupon三年前才刚创立、迄今尚未盈利，对这样一个公司来说，100亿美元或150亿美元的估值并不是真的让人难堪，而是因为它自己或某些人无端生造出来的某种看法使人产生这种感觉。最起码，它很有希望成为一个值得所有后来者警惕的故事。

    【警告：如果Groupon最终以低于60亿美元的估值上市，也就是谷歌公司（Google）去年提出的收购价格，这种尴尬就会成为现实。】

    译者：清远

    Several years ago, venture capitalist Stewart Alsop gave a speech about why Facebook shouldn't have accepted Microsoft's investment at a $15 billion valuation. Or, more specifically, why Facebook shouldn't have allowed the valuation to leak. His argument was that Facebook would likely go public or be acquired at a lower number, and the subsequent press would make the company appear to be on the decline – even though $5 billion or $10 billion would have been a massive win for a company at that stage of its development.

    To be sure, Stewart was wrong about Facebook. But his lesson might be taking hold at Groupon. I don't know who reported it first, but for months it's been publicly suggested that Groupon is seeking a post-IPO valuation of $25 billion. You can't figure that out from the available SEC docs, so clearly this was leaked by someone either at Groupon or someone else (read: banker) who met with company executives.

    If Groupon itself was the hubristic leaker, then it deserves many of the arrows currently sticking out of its North Side hide. And if it was someone else, then Andrew Mason should track that person down and shove him into a dollhouse miniature.

    For all of its issues, including those with the SEC, Groupon is a revenue-producing monster that almost certainly will price an IPO later this year. But now anything short of $25 billion – and it almost certainly will be short of that – will be viewed as some sort of embarrassment or loss of momentum. Not because a $10 or $15 billion valuation actually is embarrassing for an unprofitable company founded three years ago, but because of a perception it or someone else needlessly created. At the very least, it hopefully will be a cautionary tale for anyone who follows.

    [Caveat: If Groupon goes public at a valuation lower than $6 billion – i.e., the price Google offered to pay for an acquisition last year – then the embarrassment would be legitimate.]