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专栏 - 苹果2_0

二季度全球平板电脑市场份额:iPad上升,Android下降

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年09月20日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
全球平板电脑市场年增长303.8%,其中大部分来自苹果公司。

    
全球平板电脑市场份额(按发货量)。来源:IDC

    市场调研机构IDC于一月份推出全球媒体平板电脑和电子书季度追踪系统。此后,该机构对平板电脑市场的监测水平可谓参差不齐。

    IDC对2011年第一季度的追踪报告直到七月份才出炉,令一些知名的技术写手大为困惑,以至于他们将其误认作第二季度的报告【参见《平板电脑销售放缓真相》 (What slowdown in tablet sales?)一文】。

    IDC的第二季度平板电脑报告于上周三面世,距离第四季度开始仅2周,该报告提出了一些有价值的见解,但也存在很多漏洞。上方的图表中包括了我们从IDC的三份跟踪报告里能搜集到的所有市场份额数据。我们在周三联系了IDC的新闻处,询问他们能否补足缺失的信息,到目前尚未收到回复。

    与此同时,IDC已经发布的信息包括:

    • 全球平板电脑市场正在迅猛增长,从第一季度到第二季度,发货量上涨了88.9%,同比增长了303.8%。IDC目前预测2011年发货量为6,250万部,此前其预测发货量为5,350万部。

    • 尽管竞争加剧,但苹果的市场份额在第二季度上升至68.3%(第一季度为65%),虽然比2010年第三季度的近87.4%要低。

    • 黑莓设备生产商RIM在第二季度凭借PlayBook进入平板电脑市场,获得4.9%的份额——至少发货量是这个数字。

    • 运行谷歌(Google)各种版本Android的平板电脑市场份额下降,在第二季度降至26.8%(第一季度为34%),而且还可能进一步下跌。

    • 惠普(Hewlett-Packard)以99美元低价销售其TouchPad,在第三季度获得了近4.7%的市场份额,但鉴于惠普已经正式抛弃这款产品,这一成功注定是短暂的。到第四季度,惠普的市场份额将下降为零。

    译者:项航

    Since IDC launched its Worldwide Quarterly Media Tablet and eReader Tracker in January, its coverage of the tablet market has been, shall we say, spotty.

    Its tracking report for the first quarter of 2011 didn't arrive until July, causing serious confusion among some high-profile tech writers who mistook it for a second-quarter report (see What slowdown in tablet sales?).

    IDC's tablet report for Q2 arrived Wednesday, two weeks before the start of Q4, and while it offered some worthwhile insights, it's also full of holes. The chart above contains all the market share data we've been able to glean from IDC's three tracking reports. We asked IDC's press office on Wednesday if they could fill in the blanks; so far, no reply.

    Meanwhile this much can be said: According to IDC ...

    • The worldwide tablet market is growing like gangbusters, with shipments up 88.9% from Q1 to Q2 and 303.8% year over year. IDC is now forecasting shipments of 62.5 million units in 2011, up from an earlier projection of 53.5 million

    • Apple's (AAPL) share, while down from Q3 2010, when it was nearly 87.4%, actually grew to 68.3% in Q2 (up from 65% in Q1) despite increased competition

    • Research in Motion's (RIMM) entered the market in Q2 with its PlayBook and grabbed a 4.9% share -- at least in terms of units shipped

    • The tablets running various versions of Google's (GOOG) Android lost share, falling to 26.8% in Q2 (from 34% in Q1), and the news is likely to get worse before it gets better

    • Hewlett-Packard's (HPQ) probably bought a 4.7% share in Q3 with its firesale of $99 TouchPads, but given that HP has officially abandoned the TouchPad, that success is necessarily short-lived. By Q4 HP's share will have fallen to zero

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