|
摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的凯蒂•休伯蒂通过一系列经过精心研究的图表发现，在其它条件都相同的情况下，真正拉动智能手机销量的一个因素是：销售手机的无线运营商数目。 休伯蒂分在上周日致客户的报告中享了对225个国家760家运营商2007年到2011年之间的数据分析结果。过去5年，总体用户数年增长率为17%，其中与现有运营商签约的新用户同与新运营商签约的用户数量大致相当。 休伯蒂称，这在很大程度上与苹果（Apple）iPhone的情况相符。iPhone从2007年的一家运营商——美国电话电报公司（AT&T）——增长到如今的105个国家230家运营商。（见上图所示。） 虽然如此，但苹果的签约运营商数量仍然落后于竞争对手。比如黑莓手机生产商RIM，在休伯蒂所列举的760家运营商中，79%已和黑莓（Blackberry）签约，而其中仅有30%是iPhone运营商。 休伯蒂认为iPhone最大的增长点将来自亚洲（蒂姆•库克也赞同这种观点），一方面由于亚洲拥有庞大的人口；另一方面是许多消费者没有购买iPhone的渠道，因为所在地的运营商还未有发售计划。参见下面的图表。 |
In a series of well-researched charts, Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty has put her finger on the one factor -- all others being equal -- that really drives smartphone sales: The number of cell phone operators that sell the thing. In a report issued to clients Sunday, Huberty shared the results of an analysis of 760 carriers in 225 countries from 2007 to 2001. Over the past five years, the growth in total subscribers per year (17%) was split roughly 50/50 between new subscribers on existing carriers and subscribers signed up on new carriers. This holds true in spades, Huberty suggests, for Apple's (AAPL) iPhone, which since 2007 has gone from one carrier -- AT&T (T) -- to nearly 230 carriers in 105 countries. (See chart above.) Despite those carrier agreements, Apple still trails its competitors. Research in Motion (RIMM), for example, has deals for the BlackBerry with 79% of the 760 operators Huberty identified. Only 30% carry the iPhone. The biggest opportunity for growth, according to Huberty (and, for that matter, Tim Cook) is in Asia, both in terms of total population and in terms of the number of subscribers who don't have access to the iPhone because their cellular provider doesn't sell it. See the charts below: |
|
下面一幅图表的数据同样对iPhone这样定价相对较高的手机有利：在新兴市场，购买补贴手机的用户数量（即所谓后付费补贴计划）最近已经超过全额预付款购买廉价智能手机的用户数（被称为预付费手机）。 |
One last chart that also works in favor of cellphones, like the iPhone, with a relatively high sticker price: The growth in the number of subscribers in emerging markets who buy subsidized cellphones (in so-called post-paid plans) has recently overtaken those who prefer to pay full price for cheap cellphones at the time of purchase (so-called pre-paid phones). |
最新文章