如今，苹果（Apple）和谷歌（Google）Android系统专利大战的战火已经在世界各地点燃，德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）的克里斯•惠特莫尔在周一发布的致客户报告中对这场纷争的战果给出了四种预测。

    1) 双方和解，苹果获得单位许可费；

    2) （对苹果）更有利的结果是，苹果得以遏制Android的各项功能以及/或分销能力，并抢占Android未来市场份额的25%；

    3) 双方打成平手；以及

    4) 苹果败诉，必须支付反索赔费用

    惠特莫尔肯定认为出现第3种与第4种结果的可能性很小，因为他随后通篇都在计算第1种和第2种结果能为苹果公司股东带来的价值。

    结果1——双方和解，苹果出售知识产权，每部Android设备收取大约10美元。根据惠特莫尔的计算，这个方案大概能使苹果的股价上涨35美元。

    结果2——Android大量功能或分销能力遭到削弱，这比第1种结果的可能性要低得多，但它可能给苹果带来巨大的回报。比如说，若苹果获得未来预期Android市场的25%，惠特莫尔预计苹果的股价可能上涨260美元之多。

    因此，他总结说：“我们怀疑苹果不可能轻易和解。”

    惠特莫尔表示，与此同时，苹果投资者应该按兵不动。他们“几乎不用投入什么成本，就可能从这场专利战中收获非常丰厚的战果，可谓坐享其成。”

    译者：项航

    In a note to clients issued Monday, Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore lists four possible outcomes of the patent wars being fought in courts around the world between Apple (AAPL) and the Google (GOOG) Android ecosystem:

    1) settlement with per unit license fee paid to Apple;

    2) a more favorable outcome where Apple handicaps Android's feature set and/or distribution and captures 25% of Android's future market share;

    3) neutral with no winner; and

    4) Apple loses and must pay a counter claim

    Whitmore must not consider outcomes 3 and 4 very likely because he spends the rest of the note trying to calculate the value to Apple shareholders of outcomes 1 and 2.

    Outcome 1 -- a settlement where Apple licenses its intellectual property for about $10 per Android device sold --could add, according to Whitmore's calculations, roughly $35 to Apple's share price.

    Outcome 2 -- where Android's feature set or ability to distribute is diminished -- is considerably less likely, but the payoff could be enormous. If Apple were to capture 25% of the future anticipated Android market, for example, Whitmore estimates that Apple's share price could grow by roughly $260 per share.

    "As a result," he concludes, "we suspect Apple is unlikely to settle cheaply."

    Apple investors, meanwhile, should sit tight, according to Whitmore. They are "gaining exposure to a potentially very lucrative favorable IP outcome for little or no cost."