独立分析师与华尔街专业分析师都在跟踪苹果公司（Apple）的表现，而这两者的最大区别在于，独立分析师们更重视预测的准确性。

    恕我直言，专业人士看来相当保守，总是担心脱离主流、标新立异。（请看链接1,2,3中的例子。）

    本周末就是苹果公布2012年第二财季财报的时间了。所以，希望得到消息灵通人士指点或提前了解苹果财报情况的投资者们最好仔细听听Asymco网站的贺拉斯•德迪欧的意见，因为他是最好的独立分析师之一。他对苹果的预测不仅经常胜过专业分析师，而且还会清楚而详细的解释自己得出这些预测数字的根据。

    上周三，德迪欧在个人网站Asymco.com上公布了对苹果2012年第二财季的预测，同时还在《关键路径》（The Critical Path）里详细讨论了预测情况。《关键路径》是德迪欧发布在丹•本杰明的5by5 Network上的播客，每周更新。

    德迪欧表示，对iPhone销量的预测相对比较明了。iPhone在过去几年一直保持着100%的年增长率。根据对苹果资本开支计划的分析，以及对手机市场的深入理解【德迪欧曾在诺基亚（Nokia）工作过八年】，德迪欧预测，iPhone在2012年销量有望再度翻番。

    至于iPad，德迪欧认为，其销量预测要困难得多。虽然当前的平板电脑市场完全是苹果在两年前一手打造的，而苹果现在还继续把持着霸主地位，但这一市场的年增长率已达到150%。依据全新iPad在首周末的销售情况，德迪欧目前认为这一疯狂增速在今年仍可能会得到延续。

    对比第一代和第三代iPad的首发情况，德迪欧指出，后者销量是前者的28倍。不过，全新iPad的首发国家数量要多很多，如果剔除这一因素，这一数字则只有大约3倍。

    德迪欧预测，iPad在2012年第二财季销量有望达到1,220万部。这一数字比华尔街的平均预测高出120万部，不过这还不是最为大胆的预测。上周，花旗集团（Citigroup）的理查德•加德勒和投资银行Evercore的罗伯特•希拉一致预测，iPad在第二财季销量或将达到1,300万部。

    译者：项航

    The chief difference between the independent analysts who follow Apple (AAPL) and their counterparts on Wall Street is that the independents put a premium on being right.

    The professionals, with all due respect, seem to care more about not over-promising or straying too far from the consensus. (See here, here and here, for example.)

    So investors who want informed guidance about what Apple is likely to announce when it reports its earnings for the second fiscal quarter of 2012, which ends next week, would do well to listen closely to Asymco's Horace Dediu, one of the best of the independents. Not only do his Apple forecasts regularly beat the professionals', but he explains how he gets his numbers clearly and in great detail.

    On Wednesday, Dediu published his Q2 2012 estimates on Asymco.com and discussed them at some length on The Critical Path, his weekly podcast on Dan Benjamin's 5by5 Network.

    Predicting how many iPhones Apple will sell, Dediu says, is relatively straightforward. Sales have been growing 100% per year, and based on his analysis of Apple's capital spending plans and his deep knowledge of the mobile phone market (he worked for Nokia for eight years), they seem poised to do it again this year.

    Predicting iPad sales is far more difficult, he explains, because contemporary tablet computers are a market that Apple created out of whole cloth two years ago. But that market -- which Apple continues to dominate -- has been growing at the rate of more than 150% per year, and based on first weekend sales of the new iPad, Dediu now believes that rate may be sustainable.

    The difference between the launch performance of the first iPad and the third, he points out, is a factor 28. Adjusted for the number of countries where each device was launched, that boils down to roughly 3 to 1.

    Dediu is calling for Q2 iPad sales of 12.2 million. That's more than 1.2 million units higher than Wall Street's current consensus, but it's hardly the biggest estimate out there. This week, Citigroup's Richard Gardner and Evercore's Robert Cihra both issued notes predicting Q2 iPad sales of 13 million.