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随后，西尔斯表示，成功的投资者必须跟踪经济周期和经济指标，包括波动率恐惧指数（VIX fear index），了解应该何时进入、退出股市板块及具体的个股。值得指出的是，波动率和美国供应管理协会（ISM）的经济报告是投资界普遍关注的报告。但在2008年，关注这些指标也救不了谁。 西尔斯在这本书中常常听起来就像是一名日间操盘手。考虑到他的日常工作是为《巴伦周刊》的期权市场栏目撰稿，这也难怪。倒不是说他说不出什么高见，但他每日时时刻刻跟踪市场的变动，这种思维模式似乎影响到了他的建议。 真相是成功投资是人生的苦苦追求之一。伟大的投资者通常都有你我所不具备的特质，而且，他们的行事方式通常与一般的人背道而驰。再以巴菲特为例。上世纪90年代初，他公开支持富国银行（Wells Fargo）的股票，因为该股当时很便宜，续跌空间有限，而上升空间巨大。但当时，其他所有人都盯着该行糟糕的房地产贷款。 三位知名做空者穿着印有“巴菲特-小子”的T恤，四处高呼富国银行股票将下跌（我们都知道最后的赢家是谁）。这给我们什么启示？很多最优秀的投资者不像其他人那样试图把握经济周期的时机。他们按照自己的步调走。 看起来似乎毫无希望，但有工作的人可以成功地进行投资。而且，这不需要依照华尔街规则来做。只需要知道几个“诀窍”就行。第一，成本永远是投资过程中你唯一能够控制的因素。现如今，很多华尔街分析师告诉我们，美国企业的利润将继续蓬勃增长，美国股市每年将上涨9%，等等。这样的预测可能在未来10年是成功的，但之后10年就又说不准了。天晓得。但如果你的共同基金收取1.50%的费用，你唯一可以指望的事情就是，你的钱每年会损失1.50%。 第二，不应在股价贵的时候买入，也不应在股价便宜的时候卖出。但你怎么知道今天是便宜、还是贵呢？最可信的指标就是耶鲁大学（Yale）教授罗伯特•席勒的长期股票水平评测工具，他用一个Excel表格来跟踪历年股市走势，并发表在耶鲁大学网站上，全世界的人都能看到。根据席勒的表格，经过周期调整的美国股票历史平均市盈率为16倍。如今，这一比率为22倍。华尔街人士总是一味让你买进。但席勒提供了一个更好的方法。 第三，对股市进行更广泛投资，或者找一个人帮你做，最好这个人还喜欢价值股，不喜欢那些热门但前景不可预测的成长型公司。简单说，除非想寻开心，否则不要想着在个股上赌一把。每天都有数以万计极其聪明、极富野心的选股者涌入股市。你真的比他们还懂行吗？ |
Sears then argues that successful investors must follow economic cycles and indices such as the VIX fear index to understand when to hop in and out of market sectors and individual stocks. It's worth noting, however, that the VIX and ISM economic reports are some of the most widely followed reports in the investing world. Yet tracking them didn't save anyone in 2008. Sears often sounds like a day trader in this book. That makes sense given that his day job is covering the options market for Barron's. It's not that he can't provide wise insights, but his advice seems distorted from covering market gyrations on a second-by-second basis. The truth is that successful investing is among life's harder pursuits. Great investors often possess traits unlike yours and mine, and they act in ways that often contradict basic human behavior. Take Buffet again. There was a time in the early 1990s when he publicly supported Wells Fargo (WFC) stock because the bank's shares were cheap enough to protect against further losses and offered enormous upside. But everyone else was focused on the bank's terrible real estate loans. A trio of well-regarded short selling brothers went around wearing "Buffett Busters" T-shirts and shouting that Wells Fargo was going down. (We know who came out on top.) What's the takeaway? Many of the best investors don't worry about trying to time economic cycles like everyone else. Instead they chart their own course. It may seem hopeless, but people with day jobs can invest successfully. And it doesn't require playing the game by Wall Street rules. You only need to know a few "secrets." First, cost is the only aspect of the investing process that you'll ever be able to control. Nowadays, many Wall Street analysts tell us that U.S. corporate earnings will continue to flourish, that U.S. stocks can be expected to rise by 9% a year on average, and on and on. These predictions may pan out over the next decade, and then again they may not. Who knows? But if your mutual fund charges 1.50% in expenses, the one thing you can bank on every year is losing 1.50% of your money. Second, you shouldn't buy stocks when they're expensive, nor sell when they're cheap. How do you know which condition applies today? The most reliable indicator is Yale professor Robert Shiller's long-term gauge of stock levels that he tracks on an Excel file and publishes on a Yale website for all the world to see. According to Shiller's spreadsheet, the average historical cyclically-adjusted P/E multiple for U.S. stocks is 16. Today they trade at 22. Wall Street will always tell you to buy. Shiller espouses a better method. Third, invest in the broad stock market or find someone who will do it for you, preferably someone who favors value stocks instead of high-flying but unpredictable growth companies. Simply, the only time you should gamble on individual stocks is to have fun. Tens of thousands of very smart, very ambitious stock pickers crowd into the market every day. Do you really know more than they do? |
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