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以上这些就是该书给出的全部投资诀窍。另外，有一本书融合了本书的大部分智慧，但获得的媒体关注远少于《不屈不挠的投资者》，这本书就是丹尼尔•派瑞斯的《策略派息投资者》（The Strategic Dividend Investor）。这本书是写给买入－持有的投资者，前言第一句就是“如果你喜欢交易股票，请不要再往下读了”，听起来多么悦耳啊。派瑞斯信奉一个容易理解的派息理论——持股就该获得现金（派息）——宣扬耐心、低成本和强劲的长期回报。如果你打算只读一本有关投资的书，试试这一本。 与派瑞斯相比，西尔斯似乎总是有些短视。他说，对于股市投资而言，时机就是一切，他说的没错。永远都不应该不顾估值就买入股票——还记得2000年吗？但为了解决这个问题，他给出的方法有些难以执行——甚至可能还是危险：像高盛（Goldman Sachs）那样玩市场周期。按照这一策略，在经济扩张期，看好像能源和材料等周期类股票；在经济收缩期，退回医疗保健、公用事业等防御性股票。 如果你认为，你可以比华尔街更好地确定市场周期的时间，嗯……如果是这样，或许你可以开始考虑在华尔街找份工作了。颇能说明问题的是，高盛提供这类研究，帮助人们踏准市场周期，毕竟高盛经营着一个非常成功的经纪业务出售股票。 如果希望成为一名更出色的投资者，效仿华尔街人士的可能性不大。应该从简单的开始——挑选低成本基金，当席勒的长期市盈率曲线低位时买进股票，不要投资太多个股。最后，请记住巴菲特常说的一句话：成功投资很简单，但做起来却并不容易。以此为主题著书立说或许也同样如此。 译者：早稻米 |
That's about all the investing secrets there are. One book that incorporates most of this wisdom but has so far received little press is Daniel Peris' The Strategic Dividend Investor. Written for the lay investor, the preface begins, "If you like to trade stocks, read no further." (This should be music to your ears.) Peris espouses an easy-to-understand dividend philosophy -- he demands to be paid cash to hold onto stocks -- that preaches patience, low costs, and strong long-term returns. If you're only going to read one book about investing, try this one. Compared to Peris, Sears often seems myopic. He says timing is everything in stocks, and he's right. (You should never buy stocks regardless of valuations -- remember 2000?) But Sears prescribes a difficult-to-follow -- and potentially dangerous -- method to deal with that truth: a Goldman Sachs-endorsed approach to play market cycles. The strategy favors cyclical stocks like energy and materials when the economy is growing and retreats to defensive sectors like healthcare and utilities when the economy is shrinking. If you think you can time market cycles better than Wall Street, well ... maybe you should get a job on Wall Street. It's telling that Goldman Sachs (GS) provides the research that supports these prescriptions, given that Goldman runs a very successful brokerage business selling stocks. If you want to become a better investor, you can't possibly try to play the same game as Wall Street. Start with the easy stuff -- picking low-cost funds, buying stocks when Shiller's long-term P/E line is low, not betting on too many individual stocks. And remember what Buffett often says: Successful investing is simple, but not easy to do. The same might be said for writing a book on the topic. Our Weekly Read column features Fortune staffers' and contributors' takes on recently published books about the business world and beyond. We've invited the entire Fortune family -- from our writers and editors to our photo editors and designers -- to weigh in on books of their choosing based on their individual tastes or curiosities. |
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