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专栏 - 苹果2_0

是谁让苹果市值蒸发了960亿美元?

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2012年05月22日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
上周在曼哈顿举办了一次有很多对冲基金经理参加的会议,与会者的言论直接影响着苹果股价的变化。会上当有人放出看空苹果的言论时,苹果股价也相应大跌。之后另一位发言者对此进行了反驳,苹果股价相应地也大幅提升。

 

杰弗里•冈德拉奇。路透社(Reuters)

    请看上图,5月16日下午3点后不久,苹果(Apple)股价一度跌至540美元多一点。

    差不多与此同时,DoubleLine Capital的杰弗里•冈德拉奇(即上图中的基金经理)正在曼哈顿对着一屋子的投资经理大谈看空苹果,“我怀疑等到iPad 87出来时,还会有多少人会围着一个街区转圈排队购买”。

    See on the chart at right where Apple's (AAPL) share price dropped to just over $540 shortly after 3 p.m. Wednesday?

    That corresponds roughly to when the fund manager pictured above left, DoubleLine Capital's Jeffrey Gundlach, told a room packed with investment managers that he was shorting Apple. "I just wonder how many people will queue up around the block for an iPad 87," he said.

戴维•埃因霍恩

    看到收盘前的快速拉升了吗?这发生在第二位发言人Greenlight Capital的戴维•埃因霍恩讲话之后,Greenlight Capital以持有大量空头头寸而知名。埃因霍恩认为,冈德拉奇大错特错。如果苹果每年都能推出一款热销产品,就不会丧失其吸引力。根据《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal)对此次会议的报道,这是“假定苹果是一家硬件公司。但它并不是。”他说,“苹果是一家软件公司。它的价值来自其iOS操作系统、App Store、iTunes和iCloud。”

    据埃因霍恩称,对冲基金持股仅占苹果9.35亿股的5%,似乎这样的持股比例不足以造成当日苹果股价的突然下挫。

    但管理这些基金的是那些对杠杆操作略知一二的经理们。

    因此,如果你想弄明白是谁让苹果股价从4月9日的历史高点644美元下跌100多美元至5月16日的541.04美元——市值蒸发960亿美元,或许可以先看看5月16日是哪些人参加了在林肯中心(Lincoln Center)艾弗瑞费舍尔大厅(Avery Fisher Hall)举办的艾拉索恩年度投资研究会议(Ira Sohn Conference)探讨市场状况,并为儿童癌症研究筹集资金。

    See where the share price popped back up just before the closing bell? That happened after the next speaker, David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital, a hedge fund famous for taking very large short positions, said Grundlach was flat wrong. Apple won't lose its appeal if it stops making a new hit product every year. That "assumes that Apple is a hardware company. It's not," he said, according to the Wall Street Journal's account of the meeting. "Apple is a software company. Its value comes from iOS, the App Store, iTunes and iCloud."

    According to Einhorn, hedge funds own only 5% of Apple's 935 million shares, as if to suggest that weren't enough to make a dent in the stock price.

    But those funds are managed by guys who know a thing or two about leverage.

    So if you are wondering who could have brought Apple's share price down more than $100 from its all-time high of $644 on April 9 to its low for the day of $541.04 -- carving $96 billion out of the company's market cap in the process -- you might start with the men who gathered Wednesday in Lincoln Center's Avery Fisher Hall for the Ira Sohn Conference to talk about the market and raise money for pediatric cancer research.

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