当CEO们对我说，他们关心的头等大事是不确定性时，和许多人一样，我的第一反应是怀疑。拜托，人生本来就充满了不确定性。难道当下这一刻真的有什么不同吗？

    事实上的确如此：经济的不确定性，特别是政策的不确定性，正处于多年来最严重的时刻。如果你很想知道美国经济为什么几近停滞，或者想了解数百万工人为什么无法找到工作，非同寻常的不确定性就是答案的重要组成部分——或许是最大的组成部分吧。

    高度的不确定性创造出了一种瘫痪循环，这就是我们目前所处的境地。决策者们不知道将发生什么事情，只好袖手旁观，美联储（the Federal Reserve）近期的表现就是这样。会议纪要显示，在最近一次联邦公开市场委员会（Federal Open Market Committee）会议上，“几乎所有的与会者”都表示，目前的经济前景比过去20年更加不确定；这个委员会没有采取任何行动，道琼斯指数随之跌落。会议纪要还显示，商界领袖告诉委员会成员，“业已加大的不确定性”导致他们“暂时搁置潜在的投资项目，直至这种不确定性得以解决。”那么，这些商界领袖所不确定的究竟是什么？答案是政府的政策。一项由斯坦福大学（Stanford University）和芝加哥大学（University of Chicago）经济学家创造的政策不确定性指数可以支持他们的观点，该指数显示，近几个月的政策不确定性比过去25年要高出很多。

    最令商界领袖感到不确定的是税收和监管问题。这些事情总是多变的，但潜在的波动有可能让人头晕目眩。6月，最高法院作出支持奥巴马医改方案（Obamacare）的裁定。随后，共和党总统候选人和共和党国会领袖许诺称，倘若他们赢得11月份的总统大选，他们将废除这项方案。没错，如今的情形是，一项针对世界最大经济体的最大经济部门推出的有史以来规模最大、将对这个国家的每位雇主和个人都产生影响的监管计划要么将作为法律持续存在，要么将消失得无影无踪。在这种情况下，谁还会有心思规划未来的事情呢？

    与之类似的情形还包括今年年底将出现的“财政悬崖（fiscal cliff）”——联邦开支的强制性削减和布什减税政策到期这一致命组合。即便假设国会最终避免了联邦财政坠入万劫不复的深渊，也没有人知道这一幕的具体情形。着眼于短期的修复措施（这是迄今为止最有可能出现的结果）将对促使经济增长毫无助益，原因是，这种措施会让商界人士不知道接下来会发生什么事情。投资和雇佣并不是什么短期决策。哈佛大学（Harvard University）教授阿布迪韦利•阿里得出这样的研究结论：“信心的缺失，以及对经济政策稳定性的质疑，迫使投资者推迟资本投资……不可能每次政府扭转经济政策时，他们也跟着撤销固定资本投资的决策。”

    它不仅仅涉及到经济政策。不确定性正在带来切实的痛楚。据超党派的国会预算办公室（Congressional Budget Office）预测，仅仅财政悬崖引发的不确定性就足以使美国下半年的经济增速减少0.5个百分点。在一个增长率不到2%的经济体中，这无疑是一个大麻烦，这意味着数十亿美元将无法用来雇佣新员工。

    那么，谁是罪魁祸首呢？极端对立的国会堪称一台生产不确定性的机器。奥巴马医改方案在国会两院获得通过时，没有一个共和党议员投赞成票；当众议院最近就废除这项法律进行投票表决时，与239位共和党议员一道投支持票的民主党议员也仅有区区5位。这无疑是向商界人士传递了一个清晰的讯息：不要对任何一项未获得两党实质性支持的法案抱有指望了。这么说来，意义重大的法案似乎就不再有可能在国会通过了。

    CEO们经常向我提及的另一件事情是，政策的确切内容或许不如其可预见性那般重要。如果他们知道规则，他们将根据规则，谋求商场制胜之道。只有当他们不知道规则的时候（比如现在），他们才会左右为难。在3月份之前，拜托这次总统大选的获胜一方（无论他们是谁）向美国民众表明，他们是国之领袖，而不是乱发脾气的小孩。在此之前（谁晓得呢，或许过了那时也不一定），我们将无所适从，无处可去。

    译者：任文科

    When CEOs tell me that their No. 1 concern is uncertainty, as a great many do, my first reaction is skepticism. Please. Life is uncertain. Is this moment really different?

    Actually it is: Economic uncertainty, especially policy uncertainty, is greater than it has been in many years. And if you're wondering why the U.S. economy is barely moving or why millions of workers can't find jobs, extraordinary uncertainty is a major part -- maybe the largest part -- of the answer.

    High uncertainty creates a loop of paralysis, and that's what we're in right now. Policymakers have no idea what's going to happen, so they sit on their hands, as the Federal Reserve did recently. "Nearly all participants" in the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting said that the economic outlook was more uncertain than it had been over the past 20 years, according to the minutes; the committee took no action, and the Dow dropped. The minutes also reported that business leaders were telling committee members that "heightened uncertainty" had led them "to put potential investment projects on hold until the uncertainty is resolved." And what were those business leaders uncertain about? Government policy. An index of policy uncertainty created by economists at Stanford and the University of Chicago backs their view, showing that policy uncertainty has been much higher in recent months than during the previous 25 years.

    The business leaders were most uncertain about tax and regulatory issues. Those things are always changeable, but the potential swings could make you dizzy. After the Supreme Court upheld Obamacare in June, Mitt Romney and Republican congressional leaders promised to repeal it if they win the election in November. So the biggest-ever regulation of the largest sector of the world's largest economy, affecting every employer and individual in the country, either will continue as the law of the land or will disappear. Who can even think about planning in those circumstances?

    It's similar with the fiscal cliff at year-end: the killer combination of mandatory cuts in federal spending and the expiration of the Bush tax cuts. Even assuming that Congress averts a plunge over the edge, no one knows how it will happen. A short-term fix, by far the likeliest outcome, will do nothing to get the economy moving because it leaves businesspeople wondering what comes next. Investment and hiring decisions are not short-term. Research by Abdiweli M. Ali of Harvard concluded, "Lack of confidence and skepticism about the stability of economic policies force investors to postpone capital investment ... They cannot undo decisions about fixed capital every time the government reverses its economic policy."

    This isn't just economic theory. Uncertainty is creating real suffering. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that uncertainty about the fiscal cliff alone could reduce U.S. economic growth by 0.5% in the second half. In an economy growing at less than 2%, that's a lot, representing billions of dollars that won't be available to hire people.

    Who's to blame? A hyperpolarized Congress is an uncertainty-generating machine. Obamacare was enacted without a single Republican vote in either chamber; when the House voted recently to repeal the law, only five Democrats voted with 239 Republicans. The message to businesspeople: Don't count on anything that passes without substantial bipartisan support. And little of significance seems to be enacted that way anymore.

    Another thing CEOs often tell me is that the precise content of policy may be less important than its predictability. If they know the rules, they'll play to win. It's when they don't know the rules, like now, that they get stuck. Give the election's winners, whoever they are, until March to show that they're leaders rather than kids throwing tantrums. Until then -- and who knows, maybe beyond -- we're going nowhere fast.