2012年3月，苹果公司（Apple）季度毛利率（它是衡量一家公司将销售额转换为利润效率的指标）和其股价季度表现（涨幅达29%）一起达到了顶峰，高达47.4%。但是上去的迟早会下来，但是当苹果公司警告华尔街称，公司的毛利率可能会下跌 时，苹果的股票却连续暴跌了4个月。苹果的毛利率上个季度跌到了36%，本季度在37.5%和38.5%之间。

    而苹果公司2013年1季度毛利率超过预期这一事实 – 报38.5%，而非36% - 都未被市场视而不见。华尔街坚信，苹果公司40%多毛利率的日子已经一去不复返。正如他们所言，这种变化是结构性，而非季节性的。但是在周一早些时候发布的一份提示中，摩根史丹利（Morgan Stanley）的凯蒂•休伯蒂在苹果公司的季报 SEC Form 10-Q 中找到证据，显示毛利率较低的季节也许即将结束，公司的毛利率以及股价可能会在2013年下半年获得显著改善。

    她强调了三点：（以下内容为引用）

    生产设备计划采购金额较低，预示着iPhone 5S毛利率将会提高。季报披露设备承诺采购金额为9.04亿美元，而仅仅在两个季度之前苹果公司为iPhone 5投资新的in-cell触控屏时该数据达到45亿美元。金额下降可能是由于iPhone 5S不要求显著改变硬件，因此13年下半年iPhone毛利率将会大幅度增加。

    12月NAND闪存价格受挫，但是可能会有所缓和。零部件销售额递延利润是苹果公司相对于现货价格的零部件成本优势，并与苹果公司的毛利率相关。12年下半年这一指标出现下滑，但是未来可能会改善，因为近期NAND合约和现货价格之间的价差在扩大。更为有利的NAND合约价格趋势与苹果公司上周增加在9.7" iPad中采用NAND闪存的做法一致。

    苹果公司表外承诺采购金额季度环比并未恶化。198亿美元的承诺采购金额季度环比下降了10%，这一数据的五年平均值为-12%，并暗示13年1季度营收可能更接近-17%的季节平均值，而非我们模型所示的-21%

    与大多数卖方苹果公司分析师一样，休伯蒂在上个月的盈利报告公布之后，把她的目标价从714美元下调到了630美元。但是在她的看涨情景分析中，苹果股价到明年2月将会窜高至980美元。因为苹果公司今年夏季将会发布新的iPad和低成本iPhone，2014年之前与中国移动达成交易，并将更多现金返还给股东。（财富中文网）

    Apple's (AAPL) quarterly gross margin -- the measure of how efficiently a company turns sales into profits -- peaked in March 2012 at an astonishing 47.4%, along with its quarterly stock performance (up 29%).

    But what goes up must come down, and when Apple warned Wall Street that its margins were likely to fall -- to 36% last quarter and somewhere between 37.5% and 38.5% this quarter -- the stock went into a four-month swoon.

    The fact that Apple beat its GM guidance for Q1 2013 -- returning 38.5% profits rather than 36% -- fell on deaf ears. The Street was convinced that the days of Apple's 40-plus percent margins were over. The change, as they say, was structural, not seasonal.

    But in a note issued early Monday, Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty finds evidence in Apple's SEC Form 10-Q that the season of lower margins may be ending, and that the company's GM% -- and share price -- could improve significantly in the second half of 2013.

    She highlights three bullet points: (I quote)

    • Lower planned purchases of production equipment sets up for higher iPhone 5S margin. The 10-Q discloses $904M of commitments for equipment purchases compare to $4.5B just two quarters ago when Apple invested in new in-cell touch displays for the iPhone 5. The decrease is likely due to iPhone 5S not requiring significant hardware changes, therefore iPhone GM could be much higher in C2H13.

    • NAND prices hurt in December but could ease. Deferred margin on component sales represents Apple's component cost advantage relative to spot prices and correlates with Apple's GM. This metric deteriorated in C2H12 but could improve going forward given the recent increase in spread between NAND contract and spot prices. A more favorable NAND contract price trend is consistent with Apple increasing NAND in the 9.7" iPad last week.

    • Apple's off balance sheet purchase commitments not worse than seasonal.Purchase commitments of $19.8B fell 10% Q/Q vs. five-year average of -12%, and suggest C1Q13 revenue could trend closer to seasonal average of -17% vs. our model of -21%

    Like most sell-side Apple analysts, Huberty lowered her price target after last month's earnings report, to $630 from $714. But in her bull case scenario -- in which Apple releases a new iPad and a lower-cost iPhone this summer, cuts a deal with China Mobile by 2014 and returns more cash to shareholders -- the stock hits $980 by next February.