上周，普信基金公司（T. Rowe Price）成为反对戴尔公司（Dell）私有化方案的最大股东，公司称拟定每股13.65美元的交易“没能反映戴尔的价值”。这个变化或许会让迈克尔•戴尔叫苦不迭。

    普信基金公司持有约800万股戴尔股份，占戴尔流通股的5%左右。另外一个，也是唯一的一个比普信基金更大的外部股东——东南资产管理公司（Southeastern Asset Management）同样给该私有化方案泼了冷水。

    戴尔公司要想实现私有化，必须获得不包括迈克尔•戴尔在内过半数股东的批准。也就是说支持率要超过42%。

    根据笔者计算，持有戴尔公司流通股超过14%的机构股东，目前都表达了反对意见。没有一家机构股东支持私有化方案。

    需要说明的是，戴尔公司十大外部股东持有的公司流通股不到30%。这意味着，大型机构股东单靠自身力量不可能阻止这次私有化行动，但他们倒是可以依靠自身的信誉说服力来施加影响（举个例子，如果大股东反对，小股东就会跟风）。

    因此，这宗240亿美元私有化方案的关键在于，迈克尔•戴尔及其在银湖资本（Silver Lake）的私募股权伙伴们是否愿意提高出价。

    正如笔者在交易公布之前所写的那样，低于每股14美元，无异于自找麻烦。通常来说，私募股权公司在宣布私有化时，都会留一点提价的回旋余地（虽然他们从未公开承认过）。这也是为什么这类新闻发布会中通常都会避免使用“最高和最终出价”这样的字眼。

    但每股13.65美元或许确实到了银湖资本的极限——它已经承诺出资14亿美元，这个数字已经超过了它新基金的10%——有报道称，由于价格问题，谈判再次破裂。所以或许最终的结果是，在价格上给股东一点小小的甜头，由迈克尔•戴尔自己寻找资金填补缺口。

    毕竟，按照目前的安排，迈克尔•戴尔已经是公司的控股股东。所以，额外一两个百分点并不影响大局。而且，迈克尔•戴尔并不缺钱。实际上，只要他想，就算没有银湖资本或者微软（Microsoft）的帮助，他也能完成这次收购。

    我们在这里说出自己的想法，同时也在期待其他大股东，比如贝莱德集团（BlackRock）和先锋集团（Vanguard）等表明立场。不过，很难说迈克尔•戴尔没有一套替代方案，就算这意味着他要自掏腰包。（财富中文网）

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    T. Rowe Price yesterday became the latest Dell Inc. shareholder to oppose the company's plans to go private, saying the proposed $13.65 per share deal "does not reflect the value of Dell." This has got to be making Michael Dell sweat a bit.

    T. Rowe Price (TROW) holds around 86 million shares of Dell (DELL) stock, or around 5% of all outstanding shares. The only larger outside shareholder is Southeastern Asset Management, which also threw cold water on the proposed buyout.

    To go private, Dell needs approval from a simple majority of shareholders not named Michael Dell. That works out to just north of 42%.

    By my count, institutions holding more than 14% of Dell's outstanding shares now have signaled their intentions to oppose. And none have come out in favor.

    For context, Dell's ten largest outside stockholders hold less than 30% of the company's outstanding shares. That means that the big institutions alone don't have the mathematical muscle to stop this train, but rather are banking on their powers of reputational persuasion (i.e., if the large oppose, the small will follow).

    The $24 billion question, therefore, is if Michael Dell and his private equity pals at Silver Lake will increase their offer.

    As I wrote before the deal was announced, anything too far below $14 per share seemed like it was just asking for trouble. Generally, private equity firms have a bit of upside wiggle-room when they announce a take-private (although they never admit it publicly). It's the reason that such press releases don't typically include the phrase "best and final offer."

    But Silver Lake may have really stretched to $13.65 per share -- it has committed $1.4 billion, which is more than 10% of its new fund -- with some reports suggesting that negotiations broke down repeatedly over price. So perhaps the end game is a small price sweetener for shareholders, with Michael Dell financing the difference.

    After all, Michael Dell already would be controlling shareholder under the current arrangement. So an extra percent or two wouldn't really affect things too much. And it's not as if he doesn't have the money. In fact, had he wanted to, Michael Dell could have launched this offer without the help of either Silver Lake of Microsoft (MSFT).

    Really just thinking aloud here, as we wait for other large holders like BlackRock (BLK) and Vanguard to make their intentions known. But it would be hard to believe that Michael Dell doesn't have a Plan B up his sleeve, even if it involves reaching into his pocket.