兵马未动，粮草先行：后勤缘何压倒战略

    论及军事，业余军迷总喜欢谈论谋略战术，而专业人士则研究后勤保障。两本有关二战史的新作则提醒我们，后勤在战争中为何如此之重要。保罗•肯尼迪的著作《工程师的胜利：谁决定了二战的胜负？》（Engineers of Victory: The Problem Solvers Who Turned the Tide in the Second World War）详细解释了盟军科学家、技术专家以及实业家改进和创新装备以令部队在战场上节节获胜的功绩。而史蒂芬•布迪安斯基的《布莱克特的战争：他击败了德国U型潜艇》（Blackett's War: The Men Who Defeated the Nazi U-Boats and Brought Science to the Art of Warfare）则讲述了一个鲜为人知的故事，一个默默无闻的英国物理学家通过令人震惊的技术与组织管理技巧扭转了整个战争的走势。

    “战略思维”的信徒们或许会觉得这两本书里的说法不值一提。不怪他们——战争时期，后勤的地位远逊于战略。肯尼迪和布迪安斯基都将书中的主人公设定为首席创新官，他们负责盟军与轴心国补给供应线的生死战，但却都深陷于繁文缛节的官僚政治斗争之中。在这场斗争中，破坏敌人的供给线通常要比保护自己的补给线来得更加重要。

    肯尼迪是一位学院派的大战略家，他也曾著有畅销书《大国的兴衰》（Rise and Fall of the Great Powers）。对他而言，这是一次成为专业人士的机会。书中的各章节讨论的都是军事上最棘手的挑战，比如如何安全地通过大西洋；如何取得制空权；如何在重兵把守的情况下抢滩登陆等等。这些惨烈的战役的重述与改写模仿了克劳塞维茨著名的警句：“战争中的一切看似都非常简单，但最简单的同时却也是最困难的。”在二战中，没有什么是简单的。

    怎样的技术、战术、宣传、组织管理以及分析手段的综合，或者说是系统化运用，才使得盟军的胜利成为可能？在不止一场的战役中，什么样的领导品质能够带来决定性的优势？肯尼迪虽然是在全面论述战争，但他针对于上述问题的回答还是受到了他一贯的战略思维的影响。但越是对后勤创新有所了解，人们就越觉得宏大的战略作用甚微。

    It's a military truism that amateurs talk strategy while professionals study logistics. Two engaging new World War II histories remind us why logistics matter more. Paul Kennedy's Engineers of Victory: The Problem Solvers Who Turned the Tide in the Second World War explains how Allied scientists, technologists and industrialists improvised and innovated their way to give their armed forces a fighting chance. And Stephen Budiansky'sBlackett's War: The Men Who Defeated the Nazi U-Boats and Brought Science to the Art of Warfare tells the little-known story of an obscure British physicist who applied extraordinary skills in technology and organizational management to transform the Allied war effort.

    Disciples and devotees of "strategic thinking" might find both books humbling. They should. In wartime, logistics eats strategy for lunch. Kennedy and Budiansky cast their lead characters as chief innovation officers who struggle to manage bureaucratic battles even as they oversee life-and-death conflicts between Axis and Allied supply chains. In this competition, disrupting enemy supply chains often proves more important than protecting one's own.

    For Kennedy, an academic grand strategist who authored the best-selling Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, this is an opportunity to turn pro. Chapters are themed to the military's most daunting challenges: How to Get Convoys Safely Across The Atlantic; How to Win Command of the Air; How to Advance on an Enemy-held Shore, etc. These painful tales of iteration and adaptation mock Clausewitz's famous aphorism: "Everything in war is very simple, but the simplest thing is difficult." In World War II, nothing was ever simple.

    What mix -- or system -- of technical, tactical, doctrinal, organizational, and analytical ingredients made the Allied victories possible? What leadership qualities conferred competitive advantage for more than a battle? While comprehensively informed, Kennedy's answers are inflected by his lofty strategic perspective. But the closer one examines the logistical innovations, the more they overshadow grand strategy.