库克是名经验丰富的老将，因此预计苹果这次也将安然度过乔布斯病休的日子。不过，苹果董事会总有一天要为这位传奇人物寻找一位永久性的接班人。

    去年，日产汽车（Nissan）首席执行官卡洛斯•戈恩宣布，公司将开始为新兴市场生产老牌达特桑（Datsun）超低价汽车并要从中获利时，主流反应都是不屑一顾。“ 这是一个巨大的错误，”丰田（Toyota）高管告诉《华尔街日报》（the Wall Street Journal）；“又一个愚蠢的错误，”一位日本教授如是说。靠3,000美元的汽车赚钱？痴人 说梦罢了。众所周知，汽车行业的利润来自皮卡和豪车。

    没人能够预测戈恩的新想法是否可行。他之前对全电动汽车“聆风”的反思还没有有结果。但是，我们应该为戈恩喝彩：他正在努力提升对当今所有公司来说都至关重 要的能力——创新商业模式。

    “创新”是商界的热门词汇，只是大多讨论都集中于产品和服务。对当今大多数公司而言，更深远的挑战在于如何创新商业模式，为如何赚钱这个基本问题找到一个全 新的答案。

    你也会面临这样的挑战。为方便起见，我们做一个假设，假设你的商业模式不再奏效。这种直言不讳的断言不会错得很离谱。即使这种模式已经奏效了几十年，目前尚 运行良好，但也有可能很快就会过时。

    从经济层面来看，商业模式的崩溃受到几股力量的推动。最重要的是信息技术，它带来的直接后果是彻底改变了所有以信息为基础的产业。由此产生的二级效应是，信 息技术使大多数产业的出现或变革来得更加便捷和迅速。此外，信息技术还大大推进了其他趋势的进程和程度，例如新兴市场的崛起、政府日益重要的经济角色以及消费者口味的 变化。

    结果是：自工业革命以来，我们并没有看到很多公司的商业模式一夜之间就过时了。先来看看从事媒体行业的各家公司，或者那些依靠版权开展业务或销售广告的公司 。再来看看大型零售商——百思买（Best Buy）BBY、塔吉特（Target）、沃尔玛（Wal-Mart）——如何反思其陈列式商业模式（店内浏览或在线购买）以及eBay和亚马逊（Amazon ）的商业模式。整个教育行业也需要一个全新的模式。银行、邮局、电脑生产商、大型制药公司、音乐行业以及电信业行也都是如此。这些行业都需要新的商业模式，而且几乎都 需要经过一段时间的摸索才能找到。

    原因是，大多数公司都不具备商业模式创新的能力。其实，它们也无需进行创新。举例来说，200年来，报纸的商业模式一直非常成功。这么多年来，一代一代的管理 者们都无需做出任何改变。我们为什么指望今天这代人会进行创新呢？

    大多数公司也都是如此。即使你的商业模式没有200年的历史，或许也没有人必须要一下子改变它。

    如果这只是一代人的难题，那么你尽可以邀请几个高明的顾问把一切都搞定。但是，在如今的环境下，新模式的生命周期不会相同于之前的旧模式。亚马逊就是创新的 标杆。它的创新模式就是网上书店。后来，其网上书店发展为其他书商的大卖场。接着，它开始提供基础设施配置需求截然不同的其他产品（比如服装、电脑等）；开始销售电子 书、音乐、电视节目以及在线电影；创建自己的品牌设备（电子书阅读器Kindle和平板电脑Kindle Fire）；为客户公司提供网站服务；现在又开始投资上亿美元录制原创节目，同 时打造用于当日送货的食品仓库和其他商品仓库。亚马逊在这18年间到底采用过多少种商业模式，我们数也数不清楚。我们只知道，它的商业模式在不断变化。

    管理大师彼得•德鲁克曾指出，要“摆脱昨天”难于登天。所以，公司务必要常常为之。在此，最大的绊脚石莫过于想象力贫乏、利益威胁以及企业文化。商业模式创 新是一种新的必备技能。虽然难以掌握，但它却将成为未来赢家与输家的分水岭。（财富中文网）

    When Carlos Ghosn announced last year that Nissan, which he runs, will start making ultracheap cars for emerging markets under the revived Datsun brand -- and will make a profit on them -- the mainstream response was contemptuous. "A big mistake," a Toyota (TM) executive told the Wall Street Journal; "another blunder," said a Japanese professor. Make a profit on a $3,000 vehicle? Everyone knows the profits are in pickup trucks and luxury cars.

    No one can predict if Ghosn's new vision will work. His previous rethinking of the business, the all-electric Leaf, hasn't amounted to much so far. But applaud Ghosn for this: He is trying to develop the most crucial competency for every company today, innovating the business model.

    "Innovation" is the hottest word in business, but most of the discussion centers on products and services. The more profound challenge for most companies now is imagining a new business model, a new answer to the fundamental question, How do we make money?

    You will face this challenge. For convenience, just assume the following: Your business model doesn't work anymore. That blunt claim won't be far wrong. Even if the model has worked for decades, even if it's working okay right now, odds are that it soon won't be.

    Several forces are combining to shred business models economywide. The most important is information technology, the immediate effect of which is to revolutionize every information-based business. A second-order effect is that IT makes most businesses easier and faster to start or change. It also multiplies the speed and power of other trends, such as the rise of emerging markets, the growing economic role of governments, and changing consumer tastes.

    Result: Not since the Industrial Revolution have we seen a longer or broader list of companies whose business models are suddenly obsolete. Start with virtually all companies in the media business, or any company that relies on owning copyrights or selling advertising. Then look at how major retailers -- Best Buy (BBY), Target (TGT), Wal-Mart (WMT) -- are rethinking their models in response to showrooming (browsing in-store and buying online), eBay (EBAY), and Amazon (AMZN). The whole education industry needs a new model. So do banking, the post office, computer makers, Big Pharma, music, and the telecoms. They all need new business models, and almost all are having a hard time finding them.

    That's because business-model innovation is a competency that doesn't exist in most companies. It never had to. For example, the newspaper business model worked great for 200 years. Twenty generations of management didn't have to change it. Why should we expect that today's generation would know how it's done?

    It's the same in most companies. Even if your model isn't 200 years old, probably no one has had to change it in a while.

    If this were a once-a-generation problem, you could hire some smart consultants and get it over with. But in today's environment, your new model will not last nearly as long as your old one did. The new normal is Amazon. It launched with an innovative model as an online bookstore. Then it also became a marketplace for other booksellers. It started offering other products (clothing, computers) requiring far different distribution infrastructures; began selling digital books, music, TV shows, and movies online; created its own branded devices (Kindle and Kindle Fire); added web services for companies; and is now investing hundreds of millions of dollars in original programming and in warehouses for same-day delivery of groceries and other merchandise. We can't count how many business models Amazon has used in its 18 years of existence. The model is changing continually.

    Peter Drucker noted that "sloughing off yesterday" is almost impossibly difficult, yet every organization must get used to doing it regularly. The largest obstacles will be weak imaginations, threatened interests, and culture. Business-model innovation is the new essential competency. It's hard. It will separate tomorrow's winners from the losers.