上周二是Y Combinator日，这个每年两次的盛会展示的是那些受到风投界导师保罗•格雷厄姆青睐的初创公司。这次盛会的热点词是“众筹”。

    下面是CNet的丹尼尔•特第曼对现场的描述：

    一天内有47家初创公司上台，在聚光灯下进行三分钟演示。有好几家公司自称已通过Kickstarter众筹，已经采用如今众所周知的众筹模式，或者试图从这一模式的泛组织化中获利。

    它们是：Microryza (“Kickstarter for science”)、Teespring (“Kickstarter for T-shirts”)、Watsi (一家致力于通过众筹模式为个人医疗保健筹资的非盈利组织)、Wefunder (希望通过Kickstarter模式为初创企业提供资金)、Backerkit (已建立一个面向Kickstarter项目创立人的CRM系统)。

    另外，还有一家公司希望借助众筹，解决诊断疾病的难题。

    总而言之，感觉这就像是一场“众筹”大会。这一切应该感谢美国《创业企业融资法案》（JOBS ACT）。这部法案旨在为中小投资者提供机会（当然，也有风险），投资私营初创公司或项目。法案已经获得美国国会通过和奥巴马签字批准，正待实施。不过，它已经大大促进了众筹的发展，Kickstarter和它的竞争对手Indiegogo等平台则一马当先。

    我可以理解一开始的供需吸引力以及新法案的推动作用。但我怀疑这些平台可能大多数都难以做大做久。众所周知，这才是风险投资人来到展示日寻找的东西。

    股权型众筹基本上是追求风险投资的民主化——允许平头百姓投资本来可能不被传统融资模式看好的初创企业(原因可能是地理位置或所在行业)。更多的资金追逐更多的交易。

    但对于风险投资，有一件事我们是知道的，那就是这是最难获得高投资回报的投资方式之一。有一段时间，风险投资的10年回报率中值事实上为负值。近年来情况有所改善，但康桥咨询公司（Cambridge Associates）的报告依然显示，早期风投的1年、3年和10年投资基准仍低于道琼斯工业平均指数、纳斯达克综合指数以及标普500指数(5年期确实比这三个指数表现都要好)。天使投资的回报率更是差得惊人。

    众筹等于是将一些不成熟的投资者引入了一个发行人欺诈概率更高的全新市场。而且，可供投资的企业也具有“幸存者偏差”，大多数有前途的初创企业仍会选择传统的VC。

    Tuesday was Y Combinator Day, a bi-annual showcase for startups that have received the blessing of VC shepherd Paul Graham. And the buzzword this time around was crowdfunding.

    Here is how CNet's Daniel Terdimandescribed the scene:

    Over the course of the day, 47 startups took the stage for the three minutes under the spotlights. And no less than five of them were either described as "Kickstarter for" something, or were based on the now-well-understood crowdfunding model -- or trying to profit from that model's general disorganization.

    There was Microryza -- "Kickstarter for science;" Teespring -- "Kickstarter for T-shirts;" Watsi -- a non-profit aiming to leverage the crowd to finance individuals' medical care; Wefunder -- which wants to fund startups using the Kickstarter model; and Backerkit, which has built a CRM system for Kickstarter project creators.

    Plus, there was one company hoping to leverage crowdsourcing to solve difficult to diagnose medical conditions.

    All in all, this felt like a reunion party for the word "crowd." And we have the JOBS Act to thank for that. That legislation, which was designed to let small investors get in on the fun (and risk, obviously) of funding privately-held startups or projects, was passed by Congress passed and signed by President Obama, but has yet to be implemented. Nonetheless, it has inspired the growth of crowdfunding, with Kickstarter and competitors like Indiegogo leading the charge.

    I understand the initial supply-and-demand appeal, and the new legislative lubrication. But I'm skeptical that most of these platforms can become large, long-term businesses. You know, the type of thing that venture capitalists came to Demo Day to find.

    Equity-based crowdfunding is basically seeking to democratize venture capital -- allowing ordinary folks to invest in startups that may be disenfranchised by the traditional funding model (perhaps due to location or industry). More money chasing more deals.

    But one thing we know about venture capital is that it is among the most difficult ways to generate high investment returns. For a while, then ten-year median VC return was actually negative. Things have improved a bit lately, but Cambridge Associates still reports that the 1-year, 3-year and 10-year early-stage VC benchmark underperforms the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 (the 5-year actually bests all three comps). Angel investment returns are even scarier.

    Now you're introducing unsophisticated investors into a new market that has an increased likelihood of issuer fraud. Moreover, the pool of available investments will have negative survivor bias -- since many of the most promising startups still will go to traditional VCs.