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专栏 - 苹果2_0

戴尔竞价内幕

Dan Primack 2013年04月02日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
上周末,戴尔公司发布了股东签署的委托书,详细披露了公司创始人及银湖资本联合收购要约的出炉过程。

    不过,特别委员会觉得,这两笔出价都低估了戴尔公司的价值。结果,到了12月3日,高盛集团(Goldman Sachs)的一位分析师暗示,戴尔公司可能适合做杠杆收购——这一下子就让戴尔的股票涨了4.4%,到了每股10.06美元。而第二天,KKR就退出了收购阵营。它向特别委员会的顾问摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)表示,阻碍其采取进一步行动主要有两大原因,一是难以把握的PC市场,二是竞争压力——这也正是两个被戴尔近期的业绩表现所证实的因素。就在同一天,银湖将出价抬高到了每股12.70美元。

    就在特别委员会不断施压要求更高出价时,迈克尔•戴尔却提出了私有化的请求。他表示,如果戴尔私有化,他将推出四大举措:(i) 增加公司企业服务集团的研发投入;(ii) 增加销售人员;(iii) 拓展新兴市场;(iv) 为PC和平板电脑业务增加投资。换言之,他是想让公司业绩增长,而不是套现走人。

    随后又传来了彭博社(Bloomberg)的报道,说戴尔正开始全盘收购谈判,这让股价升至每股12.29美元。第二天银湖就将出价提到了12.90美元,但还是不够。阿历克斯•曼德尔开始和迈克尔•戴尔商量,如果戴尔维持上市公司格局,应该采取什么战略,多数都涉及到削减成本(而这恰恰和迈克尔已经表明过的愿景背道而驰)。曼德尔还向银湖表示,13.75美元是很完美的价格,但银湖就是不答应,还威胁要退出。几轮博弈后,收购价提到了每股13.65美元,而迈克尔则以13.36美元的股价投入自己的股份。这个方案还是能让戴尔继续支付红利——而如果收购价达到了13.80美元这就没戏了。

    一句话,是特别委员会推着银湖把出价从11.22-12.16美元一路提高到13.65美元。

    东南资本的算法:就在双方协议达成宣布之际,东南资本发布了一个声明,称13.65美元“严重低估了”戴尔公司的价值。它同时还拿出了自己的分析,称戴尔每股至少值24美元。不过东南资本称,如果戴尔选择私有化,那每股14-15美元也是可以接受的,只要它和其他“现在的大”股东们有机会再投入一部分股份。后来在委托书中,所谓的“现在的大”这类措辞被更笼统的说法“股东”一词取而代之了。

    询价:在询价阶段,Evercore Partners共接触过67家客户,其中10家最终参与了竞价。我们已对最终结果做了详细报道,但还有一些花边新闻值得关注:(1)与黑石合作的Insight Venture Partners从未和戴尔的管理层展开过会谈。(2)《财富》杂志(Fortune)报道过,黑石曾威胁称,除非戴尔同意补偿现款支付的费用,否则就退出竞价。(3)德州太平洋投资集团(TPG Capital)一开始做过为期两周的尽职调查,但最后选择不出价。但在“询价”阶段它又现身了,和黑石展开了合作。现在还不清楚为何黑石最终出价中不包括它,但这肯定让黑石在没有迈克尔•戴尔股份的情况下更难达成这笔交易了。(4)还不清楚为何特别委员会认为卡尔•伊坎的方案可能会带来最佳出价,它是建立在债务红利上的,对此特别委员会已做过详细审查,同时认为它会带来过多的长期风险。

    The special committee, however, felt both offers undervalued Dell. Then, on Dec. 3, a Goldman Sachs (GS) analyst suggested that the company might be ripe for a leveraged buyout -- sending Dell stock up 4.4% to $10.06 per share. The next day, KKR dropped out of the process. It told special committee advisor J.P. Morgan (JPM) that its main sticking point was the uncertain PC market and competitive pressures -- two factors validated by Dell's recent performance. That same day, Silver Lake raised its offer to $12.70 per share.

    As the special committee kept pressing for a higher price, Michael Dell kept making his case for going private. He identified four things he would do with a privately-held Dell: (i) Increase R&D for the company's enterprise services group, (ii) Hire additional salespeople, (iii) Expand in emerging markets, and (iv) Invest new money into the PC and tablet business. In other words, he wants to create growth rather than strip-and-flip.

    Then came a Bloomberg news report that Dell was in buyout talks, sending the stock up to $12.29 per share. The next day Silver Lake upped its offer to $12.90, but it was still seemed insufficient. Alex Mandl began talking to Michael Dell about strategic options were Dell to remain public, much of which involved cost-cutting (which was the opposite of Michael's stated vision). Mandl also told Silver Lake that $13.75 was the magic price, but Silver Lake just couldn't get there and threatened to walk. After a few more proposals it got to $13.65 per share, with Michael rolling over his shares at $13.36. This proposal also would allow Dell to continue paying out its dividend -- something it offered to suspend if the offer hit $13.80.

    In short, the special committee moved Silver Lake from $11.22-$12.16 to $13.65.

    Southeastern math: When the agreement was announced, Southeastern issued a statement saying that $13.65 per share "grossly undervalues" Dell. It also offered up its own analysis, saying the company is worth at least $24 per share. In private, however, Southeastern said it would be okay with a $14-$15 per share bid so long as it and other "large existing" shareholders were given the opportunity to roll over a portion of shares. Later in the proxy, the "large existing" language is dropped in favor of the more inclusive "shareholders."

    Go-Shop: Evercore Partners contacted 67 different parties during the go-shop, with 10 entering the process. We've already detailed the end results, but a few interesting tidbits (1) Insight Venture Partners, working with Blackstone, has never held discussions with members of Dell management. (2) As Fortune previously reported, Blackstone threatened to walk away unless Dell agreed to reimburse its out-of-pocket expenses. (3) TPG Capital conducted two weeks of due diligence during the original process, opting not to submit a bid. But it did reappear during the "go-shop," working with Blackstone. Unclear why it wasn't part of the final Blackstone bid, but that sure makes it harder for Blackstone to do this deal without Michael Dell's shares. (4) Still unclear why the special committee thinks Carl Icahn's proposal could result in a superior bid, when it is premised on a dividend recap that the special committee already examined and determined would pose too many long-term risks.

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