中国媒体对美国苹果公司（Apple）发起的“声讨运动”已经进入第三周。本周一，花旗集团（Citi）分析师格兰•杨对苹果公司因此而遭受的潜在损失金额进行了估算。他指出，苹果公司并不是第一家在中国受到针对性负面报道的外国公司。去年12月，央视播出了对百胜餐饮集团【（YUM brands）肯德基品牌部分】的类似调查报道。受此打击，百盛今年前两个月销售额同比下跌了20%。而在1999年央视报道了东芝（Toshiba）对中国消费者和美国消费者实行的差别对待后，这家日本制造商丢掉了在中国笔记本电脑销量第一的地位。

    为估算当前这场声讨运动可能给苹果公司带来的损失，格兰•杨参考了惠普公司（Hewlett-Packard）在中国遭遇的类似惨痛经历：

    2010年，惠普公司遭遇了类似的打击，导致它在中国个人电脑市场的份额下滑了大约50%。2012年，苹果公司在中国卖出的产品约占其总销售额的16%；过去两年（2010 -2012年）中，苹果约24%的收入增长都来自于中国业务。如果苹果在中国损失50%的市场份额，它的收入将缩减大约131亿美元，合每股收益减少3.62美元。此前，我们对苹果公司在市场份额方面的霸主地位已经心存种种担忧，它在中国受到的职责更加让我们担心，因此我们眼下还是不推荐这只股票。

    资深分析师理查德•加德勒此前离开花旗集团已经导致该行对苹果公司的追踪出现偏空氛围，格兰•杨在该报告中的评论更加看淡，远不止是“我们早就说过会这样”而已。

    他写道：“虽然多头们对苹果公司的发展机遇仍然保持坚定乐观，但是负面报道的打击将影响这家公司与中国移动（China Mobile）签订合作协议以进一步把握中国机遇的能力。但更重要的是，我们相信，此事对苹果品牌价值的损害可能会带来更加隐性和长期的影响。尽管其他机构普遍对苹果公司给出了正面评级，我们还是不推荐眼下买入该股。我们维持2012年12月16日把它降为‘中性’的评级。”

    苹果公司股价周一报收于428.91美元，下跌了13.75美元（跌幅3.11%），为一周内第五个下跌的交易日。

    Citi's Glen Yeung on Monday tried to put a dollar figure on the potential cost to Apple (AAPL) of China's state-sponsored propaganda campaign, now entering its third week.

    Apple, he points out, is not the first foreign company to be targeted by the People's Republic. YUM brands (part of KFC) saw sales fall 20% year over year in January and February after it was hit by a similar Chinese TV investigative report last December. Toshiba lost its No. 1 spot in Chinese notebook sales after state-run media reported in 1999 that the Japanese manufacturer had different policies for Chinese and American customers.

    To calculate the damage the current campaign could do to Apple, Yeung uses Hewlett-Packard's (HPQ) experience as a template:

    Recall that a similar campaign hit HP in 2010, leading to a ~50% reduction in their PC share in China. Apple derives ~16% of its sales in China (CY12) and China accounted for ~24% of Apple's revenue growth in the past 2 years (2010-2012). If Apple were to lose as much as 50% of their China market share, this would equate to ~$13.1B/$3.62 in revenues/EPS. We add this to our list of concerns about Apple's market share dominance and still do not recommend the shares at this time.

    Continuing the bearish tone that entered Citi's Apple coverage with the departure of veteran analyst Richard Gardner, there's more than a whiff of "we told you so" in Yeung's remarks.

    "While bulls remain stubbornly optimistic about Apple's opportunities," he writes, "these attacks put a wrench into Apple's ability to strike a deal with China Mobile to open opportunities further in China. More importantly, however, we believe the undermining of Apple's brand value can have a more insipid and long-lasting impact. Despite overwhelmingly positive ratings from our peers, we do not recommend Apple shares at this time and stand by our 12/16/12 downgrade to Neutral."

    Apple turned in its fifth down day in a week, closing Monday at $428.91, off $13.75 (3.11%).