上周一，我与一位银行家通了电话。这位银行家坚持认为，迈克尔•戴尔和银湖资本（Silver Lake Partners）收购戴尔公司（Dell）的交易不可能以每股13.65美元的价格成交。他觉得，自从戴尔董事会接受这个价格以来，市场情况已经改变了很多，两个月来惠普（Hewlett-Packard）股价大涨就是明证。

    两相比较，不仅股东们会拒绝现有出价，也有助于黑石集团（The Blackstone Group）和卡尔•伊坎（Carl Icahn）等竞争对手的更高出价获得银行融资。

    最近的代理委托书显示，银湖资本在2月4日提交了每股13.65美元的出价。在此之前，已有多次私下密商和外部活动，包括彭博（Bloomberg）报道称，一项交易正在进行中。

    当日，惠普股价开盘报16.31美元。昨日，这只股票开盘报23.73美元，涨幅近45.5%。

    如今，不只是我联系的这位银行家认为，戴尔股价应比2月4日的价格高45.5%，特别是考虑到几周前就已经传出戴尔可能被全面收购的消息。但在消息传出（1月14日）前，戴尔的股价走势也会跟惠普如出一辙吗？倘若如此，上周二戴尔的开盘价应该达到15.71美元。

    然后，上周二早间有消息称，高盛（Goldman Sachs）将惠普评级降至“卖出”。惠普股价下跌超过6%，截至本文撰写时该股报21.90美元。用前面这位银行家的类比法，戴尔也应被降级。

    它意味着自戴尔可能被全盘收购的消息泄露以来，惠普股价累计仅上涨了33%。如果把这一轮新的涨幅套用在戴尔股票上，它当前的股价应该达到14.50美元。

    这个价格显然高于银湖资本当前每股13.65美元的出价，比黑石的每股14.25美元出价也高一点（但比卡尔•伊坎的出价略低一点）。但这是下行轨迹的反映，不是上行。

    由戴尔有些股东可能希望看到更高的出价，还有些人指望大批现有股东否决当前的交易。对这些人而言，这就会产生一个问题。如果惠普眼下的经历只是一个小插曲，那还不是什么大问题。但如果股价下滑持续一周或者更长的时间，而眼下只是一个开始，那么每股13.65美元的出价或许会变成最好的选择。

    译者：早稻米

    Yesterday I spoke with a banker who insisted that Michael Dell and Silver Lake Partners would never get their Dell (DELL) buyout done at $13.65 per share. He felt that the market had changed too much since the offer was accepted by Dell's board, as evidenced by Hewlett-Packard's (HPQ) stock surge over the past two months.

    Not only would the comparison spur shareholders to reject the existing offer, but it also would help rivals like The Blackstone Group (BX) and Carl Icahn secure bank financing for higher bids.

    Silver Lake arrived at the $13.65 per share figure on February 4, according to a recent proxy statement. This was after several machinations and outside events, including an earlier Bloomberg report that a deal was in the works.

    That day, Hewlett-Packard stock opened at $16.31 per share. Yesterday it opened at $23.73 per share, or nearly 45.5% higher.

    Now not even my banker is suggesting that Dell would be trading 45.5% higher than it was on Feb. 4 -- particularly given that news of a possible buyout had leaked several weeks earlier. But might it not at least have mirrored HP since before the leak (Jan. 14)? In that case, Dell would have opened today at around $15.71 per share.

    Then came word this morning that Goldman Sachs (GS) had downgraded HP to "sell." Company shares fell more than 6%, and as of this writing are trading at $21.90. Using the banker's analogy, Dell also would have been downgraded.

    What this means is that HP stock now is up only 33% from where it was before news of a Dell buyout leaked. And if you apply that new premium to Dell, its current stock price would be $14.50 per share.

    That's obviously higher than the current Silver Lake offer of $13.65 per share, and even a bit above the $14.25 per share that Blackstone has indicated (albeit lower than Carl Icahn's $15 suggestion). But it's reflective of a downward trajectory, rather than of an upward one.

    This could prove problematic for Dell shareholders who are counting on a superior offer, or on large existing shareholders to kill the current deal. If today's HP experience is just a hiccup, then no big deal. If it becomes the beginning of a slide that lasts a week or more, however, then $13.65 may begin to look like the best possible option.