在大约一个世纪前，威尔逊当政时期的美国副总统托马斯•马歇尔听厌了参议员们无休止地谈论这个国家的各种需要，于是说了一句让他不朽的话：“这个国家需要的是五分钱一支的好雪茄。”如今，当喋喋不休地说废话已经成为整个国家的政治消遣时，让我把马歇尔1917年的话改编一下：这个国家需要的是一场真正的五级金融危机，否则还会继续处于一盘散沙状态。

    我的意思是，看看周围的情况。自从金融危机爆发以来，政府做出的唯一真正的改变还是由恐慌引起的。（当然美联储不断努力促进经济复苏的行动除外，虽然它的一些行动也可能是因为受误导而祭出的。）在2008年9月28日，美国国会下议院驳回了不良资产救助计划（Troubled Asset Relief Program），导致道指暴跌778点，这才使下议院吓得不得不通过这个后来在恢复信心和维护金融系统稳定方面起到关键作用的计划。

    预算自动减支涵盖的所有内容中，只有关于美国联邦航空管理局（FAA）的预算削减和食品安检人员临时下岗的措施得到修改，前者引发严重的航班延误使政客们被迫采取措施改进，后者由于肉禽行业的声援而得以修订。自动减支根本是不经思考的经济白痴行为。要知道，自动减支的前提是假设人们愿意不惜一切避免这一愚蠢且破坏性的方案，是为了解决2011年债务上限而设立的“末日”工具。如今这个工具已然被动用了。

    现在，我们却在两年内第三次面临债务上限的戏码。前面的两次由共和党表演——2011年夏季和2012年末——他们毁坏了国家的财政信誉，自己也没有得到什么明显的好处。我不明白为什么他们觉得第三次就能有起色。比起民主党（我的前前政党），共和党（我的前政党）更应对这场国家僵局负责。但民主党也不值得表扬。

    以预算赤字为例，这一数额正在急速缩减。许多民主党人宣称胜利，说一切都走向正确的方向，没必要再减少社会保障、联邦医疗保险（Medicare）和医疗补助（Medicaid）计划的预算增长，一切都在掌握之中。但如果去看无党派立场的国会预算办公室（Congressional Budget Office）最近的分析，你就会发现从长远来说，美国还远未走出困境。

    预算赤字减少，一部分是由于今年生效的更高税率，另一部分归功于经济增长。但赤字减少的很大一部分原因来自于即将消失的一次性项目，比如一些公司将2013年的部分股息和红利提前计入上一年让受益人规避1月份的涨税，从而使得今年所得税征收增长。另一个因素是国债收益率低于此前预期。但这一情况不会永远持续，因为美联储已经开始警告市场未来会加息。

    Almost a century ago Thomas Marshall, Woodrow Wilson's Vice President, got tired of listening to senators blather on about the nation's needs and uttered the words that made him immortal: "What this country needs is a good five-cent cigar." Today, with 24/7 blathering as our national political pastime, let me adapt Marshall's 1917 remark: What this country needs to get its act together is a good five-alarm financial crisis.

    I mean, look around. Except for the Federal Reserve, which has consistently tried to help the economy, misguided though some of its actions may be, about the only real changes our government has made since the onset of the financial crisis were induced by fear. The Troubled Asset Relief Program, which played a vital role in restoring confidence and stability to the financial system, was passed only because the House's rejection of it on Sept. 28, 2008, set off a 778-point plummet in the Dow. That scared the House into reversing itself.

    The only parts of the budget sequester -- an exercise in economic idiocy -- that have been modified are the FAA's cutbacks that caused air-travel delays bad enough to scare politicians into action and the food inspectors who were rescued after the meat and poultry industry spoke out in support of them. The sequester, remember, was a doomsday device created to resolve the debt-ceiling crisis in 2011, on the assumption that sequestration was so stupid and damaging that people would do anything to keep it at bay. Yet here it is.

    Now, for the third time in two years, we're dealing with a debt-ceiling drama. The previous two times Republicans played this game -- the summer of 2011 and year-end 2012 -- they damaged the country's financial credibility for no discernible gain to themselves. Why they think the third time will be the charm is beyond me. I blame the Republicans (my former party) more than I blame the Democrats (my previous former party) for our national gridlock. But the Democrats are no prizes either.

    Take the budget deficit, which is shrinking rapidly. Many Democrats are declaring victory, saying that everything is heading in the right direction; there's no need to cut the growth of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid; it's all under control. But if you read the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office's recent analysis, you see that everything is far from fine for the long term.

    Part of the deficit decline comes from the higher tax rates that went into effect this year, and part from the economy's growth. But a good part of the shrinkage is from one-time items that will disappear, such as an increase in this year's income-tax collections because companies accelerated some 2013 dividends and bonuses into last year so recipients could avoid the Jan. 1 tax increases. Another factor is the lower-than-previously-projected interest rates on the national debt. But they won't last indefinitely, because the Fed has already begun warning markets of future rate increases.