根据路透社（Reuters）的报道，智能手机制造商黑莓（BlackBerry Inc.）如今开始“不排斥”私有化。太让人开心了。另一条相关消息，我的小女儿也“不排斥”在下个生日时接受一匹小马驹作为礼物。

    账面上看，收购黑莓将是一笔很划算的交易。考虑到黑莓自2008年起估价840亿美元的市值一路狂跌到如今的48亿美元（比年初下降了19%），这场交易可被看作一笔很划算的买卖。更重要的是，黑莓仍掌握着充裕的现金流（上季度6.3亿美元），而且完全没有债务。

    此外，战略竞标者之间也不太可能产生竞争关系。很难想象银湖投资集团（Silver Lake）和迈克尔•戴尔会在将戴尔公司（Dell Inc.）私有化之后，再花上约50亿美元收购黑莓，而伊坎作为大股东的戴尔公司更可能充当卖家而非买家的角色。坊间传闻联想（Lenovo）和宏达（HTC）也一直对黑莓感兴趣，但是很难想象这起交易能通过加拿大监管部门的许可（更不用说与美国政府部门达成卖主协议）。也有人认为，苹果（Apple）、谷歌（Google）和微软（Microsoft）这样的公司也许希望部分收购黑莓——比如它的安全网络资产或专利——但私有化收购与只出售一部分大不相同。而且，就战略利益而言，即使按照如今的低股价，部分收购黑莓可能仍然得不偿失。

    所以回到收购会谈这个话题——也许根本没有收购会谈呢？如果没有哪家公司正在积极主动地敲门杀价，黑莓也只是表示了这种“不排除”的态度。

    讨价还价交易的反面就像是一把下落的小刀，很难想象会有很多私募股权公司想对一家下滑如此之快的公司伸出双手。黑莓的收入以每年30%的惊人速度递减，这家曾经利润颇丰的公司已经出现了数亿美元的亏损。

    如今的黑莓对苹果和三星（Samsung）而言，就像Palm曾经对于黑莓的意义一样。也就是说，它已经成为了消费者眼中的过气产品，而这似乎与产品的质量无关。私募股权公司善于改善流行产品的管理方式和财务状况，增加其销量，但并不善于让一个大型品牌重生。

    此外，大型私募股权公司对于尖端技术的专业知识十分有限（想想有几家公司认真考虑过收购戴尔吧）。

    所以很抱歉，我的女儿艾玛，今年11月你不能收到小马驹的礼物了。但你不是唯一一个无法得偿所愿的人……（财富中文网）

    译者：严匡正

    Smartphone maker BlackBerry Inc. (BBRY) is "open" to going private, according to Reuters. How delightful. In related news, my toddler is "open" to getting a pony for her next birthday.

    On paper, a BlackBerry leveraged buyout does make sense. The company could be viewed as a bargain, given that its $4.8 billion market cap is a perverse rearrangement of the $84 billion it was valued at back in 2008 (and 19% lower than where it began the year). More importantly, it still has decent cash-flow ($630 million last quarter) and absolutely no debt.

    Moreover, there is unlikely to be competition from strategic bidders. It's hard to imagine Silver Lake and Michael Dell would spend another $5 billion or so after having just been forced to stretch for Dell Inc. (DELL), while an Icahn-owned Dell would be more seller than buyer. China's Lenovo (LNVGY) or HTTC are always rumored to have interest, but it's hard to imagine such a deal flying with Canadian regulators (let alone what would happen to vendor agreements with U.S. government departments). There are arguments that companies like Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG) or Microsoft (MSFT) may want select piece of BlackBerry -- such as its secured network assets or patents -- but being amenable to a take-private buyout is much different than enabling a strip sale. And even at today's depressed valuation, BlackBerry's parts may be too rich for strategic interest.

    So back to the buyout talk. Or lack thereof, since companies only leak such "openness" if no one is actively beating down their door.

    The flip side of a bargain is a falling knife, and it's hard to imagine too many private equity firms wanting to put out their hands for a company that is descending at such terrifying velocity. Revenue is down a whopping 30% year-over-year, while the once-profitable company is now hundreds of millions of dollars in the red.

    Today's BlackBerry is to companies like Apple and Samsung what Palm used to be to BlackBerry. That is to say it has become passé among consumers, seemingly regardless of product quality. Private equity firms are good at changing up management, massaging finances and growing sales of already-popular products. But not really at massive brand resuscitations.

    Moreover, the universe of large private equity firms with deep tech expertise is fairly limited (just think of how few firms took a serious look at Dell).

    So I'm sorry Emma, but no pony come November. But you won't be the only one not to get what you want...