摩根士丹利的分析师凯蒂•休伯蒂刚从中国转了一圈，她带来了来自全球最重要的智能手机市场的新鲜情报。

    在给客户的一系列三份报告中，休伯蒂称目前中国市场：

    • 库存堆积：中国政府称上季度国内新智能手机的需求同比下降了9％，而IDC报告称，中国地区的手机出货量上升了37％。休伯蒂表示，中国运营商正削减市场营销费用和手机补贴，等待政府发放4G牌照。

    • iPhone 6蓄势待发：休伯蒂接触到的大部分苹果分包商，都预期到12月，iPhone 6的需求将比去年圣诞期间的热卖机型iPhone 5S高出20％。休伯蒂个人预计需求涨幅为12％。

    • 大屏效应：同时，AlphaWise四月为摩根士丹利进行的一项调查表明，大屏iPhone——传闻iPhone 6将是一款大屏手机——将帮助苹果在美国多获得11％的市场份额。

    买家请注意了：去年夏天摩根士丹利进行的预测不太准：

    下图：休伯蒂根据上述发现调整了其智能手机模型。(财富中文网)

    Katy Huberty is back from a trip abroad with fresh intelligence from the world's most important smartphone market: China.

    In a series of three "takeaway" notes to clients, she reports:

    • Inventory pile-up: The Chinese government is saying demand for new smartphones fell 9% year-over-year last quarter even as IDC reports shipments of phones into the region rising 37%. Huberty says the Chinese carriers are spending less on marketing and subsidies as they wait for the government to issue 4G licenses.

    • iPhone 6 build-up: Most of the Apple subcontractors she spoke to expect demand for the new iPhone 6 by December will be 20% better than demand was for last year's big Christmas seller, the iPhone 5S. Huberty was only expecting 12% growth.

    • Big-screen boost: Meanwhile, an April survey for Morgan Stanley by AlphaWise suggests that a larger-screen iPhone -- as the iPhone 6 is rumored to be -- could buy Apple 11 points of market share in the U.S.

    Buyer beware: This Morgan Stanley prediction from last summer didn't quite pan out:

    Below: How Huberty's findings have changed her smartphone model.