上周三，本•巴加林在Tech.pinions网站上发布了名为《三星登顶》（Peak Samsung）的收费文章。而此前一天，本•汤普森在其Stratechery网站上发布了一篇名为《智能手机真相及三星衰败不可避免》（Smartphone Truths and Samsung’s Inevitable Decline）的文章。

    两篇文章都在开篇就提到三星于上周二发布的坏消息：这家公司的智能手机和平板电脑销售放缓，导致公司盈利年同比下滑了24％。

    两人都在用自己的方式表达“我早就说了吧”这个意思。

    汤普森列出了一长串要点，之后才从更宽广的视角着笔写道：

    “说到底……三星的根本问题在于，他们没有基于软件的差异化。这就意味着，从长远来看，他们只能打价格战。而在这方面，惠普（HP）和戴尔（Dell）可谓是前车之鉴。”

    “其实，事实证明，智能手机确实就同电脑一样：获得高额利润的是自有操作系统的硬件制造商，其他厂商可谓是自废武功，白白让软件商占了便宜。”

    我认为，关注智能手机市场的人一定要看看这两篇文章。巴加林的收费文章一贯能够值回票价（他的收费标准是每篇文章25美分，包月5美元，包年50美元）。（财富中文网）

    译者：项航

    Bajarin’s piece, posted Wednesday behind the Tech.pinions paywall, is called Peak Samsung. Thompson’s, posted the day before on his Stratechery site, is titled Smartphone Truths and Samsung’s Inevitable Decline.

    They both start with the bad news Samsung released Tuesday – slowing smartphone and tablet sales leading to a 24% earnings decline year over year.

    And they both, in their own way, say “I told you so.”

    Thompson runs through a long list of bulleted items before landing on the broader point:

    “Ultimately… Samsung’s fundamental problem is that they have no software-based differentiation, which means in the long run all they can do is compete on price. Perhaps they should ask HP or Dell how that goes.

    “In fact, it turns out that smartphones really are just like PCs: it’s the hardware maker with its own operating system that is dominating profits, while everyone else eats themselves alive to the benefit of their software master.”

    I consider both pieces must-reads for anyone watching the smartphone market. Bajarin’s work is always worth the price of admission (25 cents per piece, $5 per month, $50 per year).