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初创企业盈利挂帅对不对
 作者: Mark Suster    时间: 2012年01月11日    来源: 财富中文网
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初创企业必须在盈利和成长之间作出取舍。如果不把今天的盈利投资到明天的成长上,当然可以推高利润。同理,如果要维持高速的发展,必然需要把今天的一部分利润投资到扩大再生产,谋求明天的发展壮大。
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细节

    我和很多第一次创业的人都进行过这样的谈话。他们已融资二、三百万美元,推出的一款产品已有了相当的市场影响力,年化营业收入在100万美元左右。

    处在这样的阶段,作为创始人,你会觉得无限接近盈利。很多人也许会想:“今年我要大力控制成本,力争实现盈利。我不想亏欠投资者。”我的回答往往是:“没问题。但你的最终目标是什么?你计划在未来一到两年出售公司吗?还是说你打算保持较小的规模,但维持不错的利润?你设想过将来吸引风险投资、打造一家发展速度更快的公司吗?”

    由于我所在的圈子,我常常会遇到很多这样的人,他们的最终目的是希望打造一家大公司,因此希望最终能吸引到风险投资,“做大做强”。但他们希望通过举债实现这个目标。这个阶段的投资者更关心增长,而不是盈利,因此要小心别弄巧成拙。我了解创业者对掌控感的渴望,盈利能给予你一切尽在掌握之中的感觉。但这不能以牺牲着眼于增长的投资为代价。

    如果你的公司三年前募集了300万美元的资金,如今已实现盈利,营业收入达到150万美元,风投家的反应可能是“那又怎样?”这种不以为然的态度或许会让人难以接受,但事实就是这样。

    如果公司客户增长迅速,只是没有致力于营收,则是另外一回事了。如果这三年时间你是在完善一些高度细分的技术知识产权,可能同样无可厚非。但如果你放慢脚步只是为了证明你有能力盈利,那么未来再要进行融资时,可能就要另寻门路了。

理解利润

    我看损益表时,首先会看的是营业收入一栏。对于所有想了解一家公司业务状况的人们来说,营业收入有没有增长很重要。

    每次记者们向我问起上市公司股票时,我也总是提到这一点。两家 “盈利”(利润)都是1亿美元的公司可能有着截然不同的未来。一家公司营业收入的年增幅可能达到50%,而另一家只有5%。假定它们的净利润率(利润/营收)完全一样,那么到年底时,前一家公司的状况就会好得多。因此,虽然最简单的股票估值指标是市盈率,但我们也需要参照市盈率相对盈利增长比率(PEG)等其他指标。

投资者看重的是增长

    一家公司的价值就是将未来所有现金流预期总额按贴现率折算的当前现值(正如你所知,明年的1美元没有今天的1美元值钱)。高增长的公司更有可能在未来产生更高的利润总额。

    因此,评估一家公司的时候,首先要看“增长”。光看两家公司的盈利数据无法了解它们的前景孰优孰劣。

    如果(是像风投公司一样)考察的是更早期的公司(就像风投一样),那么客户增长可能比营收增长还要重要。

营收本质很重要

    评估已经开始产生营业收入的公司时,我希望能更详细地了解营收一栏。营收由什么构成?只有一项产品,还是多项产品?20%的客户贡献了80%的营收,还是三大客户贡献了80%的营收?

    这就是所谓的“营收集中度”,营收集中度越高,未来收入下降的风险就越大。

    我还希望弄清其他一些事情,比如产品的定价机制,竞争对手的定价策略,你未来的定价预期等等。随着竞争加剧,价格被迫下降,早期的高成长往往不得不放慢。

The Details

    I have had this discussion with many a first-time entrepreneur. They have have raised $2-3 million, built a product that has some amount of market traction and got to annualized revenues of around $1 million.

    At this level, as a founder you feel SO CLOSE to profitability that many say, "I'm going to keep my costs really low this year to try and hit profitability. I don't want to be beholden to investors." My response is often, "That's fine. What's your objective? Are you looking to potentially sell the company in the next year or two? Do you plan to run this as a smaller business but maintain healthy profits? Do you imagine eventually raising VC and trying to build a faster growing company?"

    Because of the circles I run in I tend to meet many people who eventually do want to build large companies and therefore do want to eventually raise VC and "go big." But they want to do it with leverage. Investors at this stage care way more about growth than profits so be careful not to shoot yourself in the foot. I certainly understand the desire to be in control, which is what you are when you earn a profit. Just be careful that it doesn't come at the expense of investments in growth.

    The likely response of a VC to your company that raised $3 million and now is profitably doing $1.5 million in revenue three years later is, "So effing what?" Harsh, but real.

    If you had huge customer growth but just didn't focus on revenue that's a different story. If you spent the 3 years perfecting some hugely differentiated technology IP that may also be different. But if you simply went more slowly to show you could earn a profit you may need to look for alternative funding sources to fuel your future growth.

Understanding profits

    When I look at an income statement, I start by focusing on the revenue line. One thing that should matter to all people trying to understand the performance of a company is whether it has revenue growth.

    I always remind this to journalists who ask me about public stocks. If you have two companies each with $100 million in "earnings" (profits) they might have vastly different prospects for the future. One company might be growing its revenue at 50% per year and the other might be growing at 5% per year. And assuming they both had the same net profit margins (profit / revenue) then the former company would be much better off at the end of the year. So while the simplest way that people often evaluate stocks is by P/E ratios (price-to-earnings), one also needs to look at other metrics such as the PEG (price-to-earnings-growth).

Investors value growth

    The value of a company is the expected value of all future cashflows discounted back to today's dollar (because as you know a next year is worth less than a dollar today) and a company that is growing more quickly is more likely to yield better overall profits in the future.

    So for a start when you want to evaluate companies you want to evaluate "growth." Looking a earnings alone across two companies won't tell you the picture of the different prospects.

    And when you're looking at even earlier-stage companies (as VCs do) you might be even more focused on customer growth than revenue growth.

The nature of your revenue matters

    When I do evaluate companies that already have revenue, I actually want to understand the revenue line in more detail. What makes up revenue? Is it one product line or many? Do 20% of the customers make 80% of the revenue or do the top 3 customers represent 80% of the revenue.

    This is called "revenue concentration" and the more concentrated your revenue the higher the risk that your revenue could decline in the future.

    I also try to understand things like how you're pricing your product, how your competitors price and what your pricing expectations will be in the future. Fast early growth in a market is often eroded when competition gets fierce and prices are forced down due to competition.







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@DuoDuopa:彼得原理,是美国学者劳伦斯彼得在对组织中人员晋升的相关现象研究后得出的一个结论:在各种组织中,由于习惯于对在某个等级上称职的人员进行晋升提拔,因而雇员总是趋向于晋升到其不称职的地位。    参加讨论>>
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