That all depends on how well Windows 8 works. The operating software isn't expected to arrive until the second half of the year, but early reviews are positive. Windows 8 looks to be the most ambitious redesign of Microsoft's core operating software since Windows 95. It reportedly reboots in less than eight seconds, requires a restart only once a month and employs the Metro interface.
Metro is key to Windows 8's future. It's a touch friendly interface designed to work on smartphones running Windows Phone 7, tablets powered by ARM processors, PCs using Intel chips and perhaps even the Xbox 360.
It took Apple (AAPL) several years to make the iOS software work smoothly on multiple devices – iPhones, iPads and, perhaps in time, Macbook Airs. Microsoft is planning to accomplish this in one fell swoop. Some critics doubt this is possible. Others see Microsoft trying to make it work. It all comes down to the details, of course, but if it works, Microsoft is poised to become a viable competitor to Apple not just in PCs and laptops, but in tablets and phones as well.
The notion that Microsoft would languish in a post-PC world has been a cloud that has hung over the company for years. But now, the worst-case-scenario for Microsoft is that Windows becomes irrelevant and the company focuses on other initiatives like servers, business software and the Xbox.
For the first time in years, there is also a best-case scenario as well. Along with its other lines of business growing, Windows 8 will make Microsoft a strong player in tablets, smartphones and PCs. That would vindicate Ballmer against all the critics who called for him to resign. (There are rumors that Ballmer will do just that, after the release of Windows 8 later this year.) Success or disappointment, Windows 8 could be Ballmer's swan song. If it's a success, that could make for an bittersweet departure. Because Windows 8 may well be the technology that proves Microsoft can still be relevant.