中国衰退论阴魂不散

    世界银行（World Bank）近日发布的一份报告指出，中国可能将面临一次经济危机，除非中国实施深层次的改革，包括收缩国有企业规模，同时改善企业家的生存环境。

    《华尔街日报》（Wall Street Journal）率先报道了这份题为《中国2030》（China 2030）的报告。该报告警告，中国的经济增长可能会突然急剧减缓。报告援引了一个近年来才得到确认的现象，经济学家们称之为“中等收入陷阱”，指的是当一个快速增长的经济体的年人均收入达到17,000美元左右时，其经济增长速度会出现显著下降。希腊和爱尔兰等国都经历过这种现象。有些分析人士表示，中国到2015年左右也将成为中等收入陷阱的受害者。

    报告还指出，主导中国经济的大量国有企业未来将面临一个十字路口。如果放任国有企业不受约束地增长，他们可能会妨碍商业竞争，挤压自由市场创业精神的生存空间。汽车厂商们都深知这一点。中国要求西方厂商必须与中国企业建立合资公司，而其中有些最重要的中资合作方就是国有企业。

    此类合作中最成功的一个当属上海通用。通用汽车与国有的上汽集团（Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation，SAIC）建立了长期稳固的合作关系。上汽集团甚至在海外也有发展。二者合资建立的上海通用汽车公司占据了中国乘用车市场9%的份额，而上海通用五菱则在中国卖出了100多万辆轻卡和面包车。现在二者又达成了一项新的合作，联手开发印度和东南亚市场。在亚洲工作的分析师邓凯一针见血的指出：“通用汽车在中国做的每一件事，上汽都有染指。”

    通用汽车与上汽的关系最近有点复杂。2009年在通用破产危机进入白热化的阶段，通用汽车向上汽出售了上海通用1%的原始股权，使上汽集团拥有了51%的控股权。后来通用一直想回购这1%的股权，使双方重新回到50%对50%的均势。据说双方在友好的气氛中进行了谈判。但到底怎么回事，谁知道呢？考虑到中国当前的汽车销量、政治、经济和行业政策，现在就预言中国车市的未来，恐怕要冒格外大的风险。

    译者：朴成奎

The specter of a Chinese recession

    A new report by the World Bank says China could face an economic crisis unless it implements deep reforms, including scaling back its vast state-owned enterprises and making life easier for entrepreneurs.

    The report, titled "China 2030, " whose contents were first reported in the Wall Street Journal, warns that growth could slow rapidly and abruptly. It cites a recently identified phenomenon that economists call the "middle-income trap," in which rapidly growing economies slow down significantly when their per capita incomes reach around $17,000 a year. The phenomenon has been observed in Greece and Ireland, among other countries, and some analysts say China could fall victim by 2015.

    The report also sees a crossroads ahead for China's state-owned companies, which dominate the economy. Left to grow unchecked, they could put a damper on competition and squeeze out the spread of free-market entrepreneurism. Auto companies know all about this. China requires that Western manufacturers establish joint ventures with Chinese companies, and some of the most prominent are state-owned.

    In one of the most successful such arrangements, GM is locked into long-term partnerships with the state-owned Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (SAIC) that have spread even beyond China's borders. Shanghai-GM has a 9% share of the China passenger car market, while Shanghai-GM-Wuling sells more than a million small trucks and vans in China. Yet another partnership between the two companies has been formed to expand into India and Southeast Asia. As Asia-based analyst Michael Dunne has wisely observed, "SAIC has its fingers in everything GM does in China."

    GM's relationship with SAIC has been tangled lately. The U.S. automaker sold a 1% interest in its primary joint venture to its partner in 2009 during the heat of the bankruptcy crisis, giving SAIC a 51% controlling interest. Lately GM has been trying to reacquire that 1% to restore the balance to an even 50-50 split, and negotiations are said to be proceeding amicably, but who knows? Given the current state of sales, politics, the economy, and industrial policy, predicting the future in China right now seems especially hazardous.