分析软件会抢走风投家的饭碗吗？

    我会不会被一个软件取而代之？

    众所周知，新数据分析产品 Quid 业已上市，它可以检测特定行业哪些细分领域的创新时机已经成熟，并向风险投资家推荐最佳的投资机遇。由于这是我和我的同行所承担的关键职责，一想到我可以把工作外包给别人（或者别的东西？），而且这个人不会把他的私人问题带到办公室，也不会喝掉最后一杯咖啡却没有续满，我就有一种解脱的感觉。

    《风险投资期刊》（Venture Capital Journal）刊文称，Quid的形象可以设想如下：

    想象一下，把数据插入计算机中，比如一个细分领域内数以千计企业的招聘趋势和过去数轮融资情况的数据，然后软件就会开始处理大量的数据、预测哪些领域尚未有创业者进入，而投资时机已经成熟。这样，当一名雄心勃勃的企业家怀揣着创业点子步入风险投资公司的大门，打算追捧该算法预测的市场空白时，风险投资家立马就能做出判断，是留心倾听他的宏图大略，还是低头玩自己的 iPad。

    这样一来，至少有一半造访我办公室的人不需要我费心接待了。iPad，我来啦。

    Quid 由肖恩・古尔力开发，他最初发明了一种技术，用以预测具有战争倾向的国家发生叛乱的时间。报道称，古尔力“使用从手机采集的公众信息，短信和来自媒体报道、非营利组织和联合国的批评数据来以寻找叛乱的迹象。然后采用计算机程序运行统计数据，从中发现了战争的普遍规律。阿富汗、斯里兰卡、哥伦比亚、卢旺达和秘鲁都显示了这些特征。”

    我喜欢这个比喻，用战争来比喻男性主导的风险投资业简直是完美无缺。战争侦测机器发明了瓦解竞争的王牌软件，难道还有比这更好的吗？或许填满风险资本的炮弹能算一个。

    Quid 软件将武士精神应用到数据分析上，搜集特定公司的“关键词、专利和新闻提及次数来制作图像，显示企业之间的相互联系。图上的每一点代表一个公司。”秘密在于找到针眼，即图上排列阵容的空白点，从而引导投资者找到大展拳脚的理想市场空间。

    我想象着自己像邪恶博士【美国电影《王牌大贱谍》（Austin Powers）中的反派人物——译注】一样坐在自己的椅子上，一边吃着糖果，一边逗弄着吉娃娃，而我的数据大军突然之间替我发现了潜力巨大、尚待挖掘的企业。那感觉真是妙不可言！

    风险投资行业通常由观察和直觉说了算，这种想要依赖软件的想法非常有意思，但也伴随着争议。当然，历史无数次地证明，人类自身的分析能力远远无法令人满意。大多数人（即便是彻头彻尾的武士）都很难抛开偏见和个人观点，清楚无误地看待数据。许多行业，即便是那些以前将本能视为成功关键的行业，都逐渐认识到信息终将战胜勇气的硬道理。奥克兰运动家队和波士顿红袜队基于这一理念认定自己必须依赖所谓的棒球数据统计分析法，而不是夹着烟卷的球探，来组建理想的球队。

    另一方面，经验和本能并非一无是处。尽管摘掉有色眼镜，数据就能引导人们找到显而易见的规律；但是有些人拥有第六感，他们看待或解读数据的方式与众不同，这些人是无可替代的。尽管棒球数据统计分析法有自身的优势，但是奥克兰运动家队在很长的时间并未赢得世界职业棒球大赛。

    那么Quid是否会走向消亡？好消息是从Quid获取分析结果并不需要支付附带权益。坏消息是它无法将我和我的同行们从努力工作以求生计的苦海中解脱出来。那些不得不和风险投资家打交道的人可能要失望了，因为他们认识到风投家可能无法完全被软件所替代。但是在风投行业打拼了这么久之后，我坚信这个行业的赢家必须能够将数据分析和直觉结合起来，同时还需要一点运气。

    好了，不说了，继续工作。

    Lisa Suennen是 Psilos Group的联席创始人和管理层成员。Psilos Group是以医疗为核心的风险投资公司，管理超过5.77亿美元的资产。

    Can I be replaced by a piece of software?

    Apparently there is a new data analysis product called Quid that is able to detect what sectors in a given industry are ripe for innovation, and direct venture capitalists toward the best opportunities. Since that is a key function of what me and my colleagues do, it is a relief to think that I can outsource it to someone (something?) who won't bring their personal issues to the office or drink the last of the coffee without replacing the pot.

    According to Venture Capital Journal, you can visualize Quid as follows:

    But imagine plugging data into a computer, such as hiring trends and past rounds of funding for thousands of companies in a sector, and then having software that crunches the numbers and predicts what areas are untapped by startups and ripe for investment opportunities. That way, when a gung-ho entrepreneur walks in a firm's door with a startup idea that goes after the market sector predicted by the algorithm, a VC knows whether to listen to the pitch, or play on the iPad while the entrepreneur talks.

    Guess I won't have to expend all that extra energy paying attention to at least half of those who visit my office. iPad, here I come.

    Quid was developed by Sean Gourley, who originally invented the technology to predict insurgency in war-prone nations. Gourley is reported to "have used public information culled from cell phones, texting and attack data from media reports, nonprofit organizations and the United Nations to look for signatures of insurgency. He ran his statistics through a computer program and discovered universal patterns of war. The characteristics looked the same across Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Columbia, Rwanda and Peru."

    I like the war metaphor, as it is perfect for the male-dominated business of venture capital. What better than a war-detection machine to identify the killer app to destroy the competition? Venture capital in a nutshell (artillery shell?).

    So applying that warrior spirit to data, Quid amasses company-specific "key words, patents and press mentions to create a graph that shows how the companies are connected. Each dot on the graph represents a company." The trick is to find the eye of the needle—the spots on the graph where there are breaks in the ranks, leading an investor to the ideal marketplace in which to do battle.

    I have a vision of sitting back on my perch like Dr. Evil, eating bon bons and petting a Chihuahua while my squadrons of data bots root out insurgent companies laying in wait to explode onto the market with a bang. Awesome.

    The idea of relying on software where observation and intuition traditionally rule is an interesting concept associated with some controversy. Certainly it has been proven time and again that the human capacity for analysis leaves a lot to be desired. It is too difficult for most people (even bad-ass warrior types) to separate their biases and personal filters from data such that they can see it clearly. Many industries, even those that have historically been known as ones where instinct is key to success, have learned the hard way that information wins out in a battle against gut feel. The Oakland A's and Boston Red Sox have made a mission out of this idea, relying on so-called Sabermetrics, instead of cigar-chomping scouts, to craft the ideal baseball team.

    On the other hand, there is something to be said for experience and instinct. While data can lead you to patterns that would be obvious if you could remove your self-colored glasses, it cannot replace that sixth sense that some people have that lets them see data in a way no one else could or would interpret it. Sabermetrics has its advantages, but the A's haven't won the World Series in a really long time.

    So wither Quid? The good news is that it will not demand carried interest in exchange for its insight. The bad news is that it will probably not be able to free my colleagues or me entirely from the drudgery of working for a living. I can hear the disappointment as those forced to interact with VCs realize that they are probably not going to be completely replaced by software after all. But having done this for a while, I have no doubt that the spoils of war in venture investing are won through a combination of data analysis, intuition and good old-fashioned luck.

    Alas, back to work.

    Lisa Suennen is a co-founder and Managing Member of Psilos Group, a healthcare-focused venture capital firm with over $577 million under management.