美国债务危机的五大赢家

黄金

    不可否认，在这场关于提升14.3万亿美元债务上限的闹剧当中并没有什么真正的赢家。承认与否，最大的输家是我们自己。美国政府的降级将导致借贷成本的增加，这必将波及一切与借贷有关的业务，例如房贷及车贷，最终加剧消费者和商业的压力。

    目前，对投资者来说，最显而易见的避风港也许就是黄金。自从共和党的议案投票推迟后，金价飙升至1，634美元/盎司，创历史新高。欧洲债务危机的推动已使这种贵金属兑美元的比率在去年一年中上升了33%。

    尽管提升债务上限（不管是否会发生以及什么时候发生）可能最终能在一定程度上平息市场的紧张气氛，但是金价的涨势不太可能终结。提高债务上限意味着增发美元，美元将面临进一步贬值的压力，为了保值，投资者将投奔黄金的怀抱。

Gold 

  It's undeniable that there are few winners in the frenzied debate over raising the nation's $14.3 trillion debt limit. However you look at it, the big losers are -- well, us. A downgrade of the U.S. government would result in higher borrowing costs for everything from home to car loans, further straining consumers and businesses.

    Perhaps the most obvious place for investors to put money now is in the yellow metal. Gold jumped to a record $1,634 per ounce after the vote was postponed on the Republican plan. Helped by debt troubles in Europe, the precious metal has climbed 33% against the U.S. dollar over the past year.

    And while raising the debt ceiling (if and whenever that should happen) could finally calm markets some, gold's rally likely won't end. A higher debt ceiling would mean more U.S. dollars sloshing around the economy, which could effectively put downward pressure on the greenback and keep gold on the minds of investors looking for a decent store of value.

格恩西岛 （及其他3A评级主权国）

    格恩西岛是标准普尔（Standard & Poor）所列的19个3A评级的主权国之一，这个位于诺曼底海峡的富裕岛国也许很快就被投资者视为资产停靠的避风港，而且是一个比美国更安全的避风港。

    标准普尔和穆迪投资者服务（Moody's Investor Services）已将美国列入3A级降级评价观察名单。由于美国可能会丧失其零风险的地位，投资者开始审视其他拥有优异评级的主权国，其中包括：澳大利亚、加拿大、德国以及荷兰。

    就可供投资的3A级资产数量而言，美国一直遥遥领先于其他国家。美国拥有超过11万亿美元的未偿债券，有着无可比拟的广泛性和流动性；而其他国家的3A级政府债券总共不过7万亿美元。

    不管怎么样，投资者始终是朝前看的。有报道显示，一些投资已经离开美国这个避风港，流向英国、加拿大、澳大利亚以及瑞典证券市场。

    格恩西岛可能将是下一个目标。

Guernsey (and other triple-A sovereigns)

    As one of 19 sovereigns rated triple-A by Standard & Poor's, this tiny affluent Channel Island off the Coast of Normandy could soon be considered a safer place for investors to park their assets than the U.S.

    S&P and Moody's Investor Services have placed the U.S. government under watch for a possible downgrade of its triple-A Treasury bonds. With the nation possibly losing its risk-free status, investors have been eyeing other sovereigns with stellar ratings as alternatives. Among them: Australia, Canada, Germany and the Netherlands.

    But the pool of investable AAA-rated assets around the world is nowhere near as deep as that of the U.S. The nation offers the widest and most liquid range of such assets with more than $11 trillion outstanding, compared with roughly $7 trillion of all other outstanding triple-A rated government paper.

    Nevertheless, investors are looking ahead, with some safe-haven flows reportedly already moving to the U.K., Canadian, Australian and Swedish bond markets.

    Guernsey might just be next.

公司债券

    少数拥有高信用评级的公司有可能因祸得福，从这场债务危机中获益。

    一些墨守投资规则的资产经理只会投资3A级债券。如果评级机构降级美国信用，这些投资者将抛售美国债券，转投3A级公司债券的怀抱，例如微软（Microsoft）、强生（Johnson & Johnson）以及埃克森美孚（Exxon Mobil）。

    诚然，一些专家们担心美国政府的信用降级可能同样会导致美国公司的信用降级。但是到目前为止，有迹象显示，一些高盈利公司（金融公司除外）使公司债券成为部分投资组合经理中意的市场。

    “标准普尔表单中已公布数据的企业（不包括金融企业）净收入增长率约为20%”，明尼那波尼斯州（Minneapolis）基金公司哥伦比亚管理集团（Columbia Management）的一位投资组合经理在上周三向路透社（Reuters）透露，“公司债券是目前最安全的避难所。当然你得有所选择，一般我们并不投资金融企业。”

Corporate bonds

    A handful of companies with top credit ratings may actually gain from everyone else's pain.

    Investment rules that apply to some asset managers require them to hold only triple-A rated debt. If rating agencies downgrade the U.S., this will trigger a sell-off in Treasuries, leading investors to triple-A corporate bonds, such as those from Microsoft, Johnson & Johnson and Exxon Mobil.

    To be sure, some experts wonder if a downgrade to the U.S. government would lead to downgrades of American companies. But so far, it appears that stellar corporate earnings (excluding financial corporations) have made the corporate bond market an attractive place for some portfolio managers.

    "Net income growth is about 20% for those in the S&P (excluding financials) that have reported, " a portfolio manager at Columbia Management in Minneapolis told Reuters on Wednesday. "The best place to be right now is corporate bonds. Of course you have to pick your spots, and where we're not generally investing is financials."

瑞士法郎

    提升14.3万亿美元债务上限的闹剧使得投资者们更倾向于选择低风险的国家来进行投资，这其中就包括瑞士。

    上周四，尽管闭门磋商长达数小时，但显然提升债务上限议案不会提交众议院投票表决。随后，瑞士法郎延续了该月的升值势头，单月连续升值天数创17年之最。

    前一个交易日，瑞郎创下历史新高，上周五瑞士法郎兑美元也高达79.99生丁兑换1美元。过去的一年中，人们对瑞郎的青睐使得其对欧元的汇价上升了24%，对美元则上升了12%。

    由于欧元一直受欧洲债务危机拖累，瑞郎有望在未来一段时间继续成为投资者的避难所。

Swiss Franc  

    The frenzied negotiations over raising the $14.3 trillion U.S. debt limit have encouraged investors to put their money in low-risk locales, including Switzerland.

    The Swiss franc extended its longest monthly rally in 17 years after it became apparent on Thursday that there would be no U.S. House of Representatives vote over a deal following several hours of close-door meetings.

    The franc touched 79.99 centimes per dollar, after reaching an all-time high the previous day. For the past year the lure of the franc has pushed up its value by 24% against the euro and 12% against the U.S. dollar.

    With the euro under pressure amid the region's ongoing debt crisis, the franc looks to be a safe alternative for investors for some time.

国债

    美国国债在此次债务上限之争中处于风暴中心。尽管如此，美国国债仍是世界最安全的投资之一。根据目前的孳息率，即使评级机构降级美国信用评级，美国国债可能对投资者仍然具有吸引力。

    有人认为，由于担心美国违约，或者即便债务上限得以提升，美国信用的降级也将导致美国深受打击，投资者将抛售美国国债。但是，目前10年期国债孳息率仍低于3%，表明投资者并没有丧失对美国国债的胃口。

    诚然， 投资者一直在少量抛售1-3月期的国债债券。但是国债孳息率，这个与售价成反比的指标，并没有大幅攀升，仍处在本月波动的低谷。

    即便美国最终拿到的是2A而不是3A评级，但美国仍是美国，不是希腊。

Treasuries 

    U.S. Treasuries are at the heart of the tumultuous debate over raising the debt ceiling. Nonetheless, U.S. debt is still among the world's safest investments. Judging by yields thus far, it appears Treasury bonds could continue being attractive to investors even if rating agencies downgrade the U.S.

    Some have been expecting investors to sell Treasuries out of fear that the nation would default or get hit with a ratings downgrade even if the debt ceiling is raised. However, yields on 10-year bonds are still below 3%, as investors' appetite for Treasuries hasn't faded very much.

    To be sure, there has been some modest selling in one and three-month Treasury bills. But yields, which move inversely to prices, haven't exactly surged and are still at the bottom of the month's range.