顶级投资人回顾股市惊魂一周

周三：道指下跌4.6%

    周二晚上他睡得安心一些。但是，周三来到办公室，他却看到了彭博（Bloomberg）终端上令人抓狂的数字。一夜之间，标普500指数期货从1,170点跌至1,077点，跌幅达8%。“看起来就像是世界要……”佛瑞斯特没有把话说完。他顿了顿，说：“我不该这么说的，抱歉。但是我开始想，也许我真的错了。”

    在仅仅几小时之内，他就从看好市场转变为忧虑不安。周三股市大跌，周四早盘开始回升。在周四股市上涨时，佛瑞斯特早就再次进入出手购买的状态了。周三他再度减少指数看跌期权，并增持了其投资组合内的几乎所有股票，增持金额近1,000万美元。其中包括大牌公司如雪佛龙公司（Chevron）、马拉松石油（Marathon Oil）、奥驰亚（Altria）、旅行家集团（The Travelers Companies）以及微软（Microsoft）。他没有时间选择哪些才是自己最中意的公司。

    周三下午的大部分时间股市都在回升，但是晚些时候再度跳水，当日收跌4.6%。佛瑞斯特非常恼火。他想，“也许我忽略了什么。因为市场的表现实在是太诡异了。除非是2008年，不然市场不会出现这么大的起伏。”

    周三结束时，佛瑞斯特已经筋疲力尽。他已经连续咆哮了两天，不断对手下的两名分析师发号施令。当周标普500指数跌宕起伏，每日波动幅度达到4%以上。佛瑞斯特三周前就想和自己的家人一起去威斯康辛的绿湖度假，一直未能成行。

    佛瑞斯特心底里觉得他的做法是对的。周二和周三佛瑞斯特在股票价格从年内高点 下滑约20%后买入。他知道美国经济形势的变化并不像股票市场波动反映得那么剧烈。所以他回家休息了。那天晚上终于睡了个好觉。

周四：道指上涨4%

    周四股市高开，之后持续攀升。佛瑞斯特开始微笑。基金资产中还有约15%的现金，所以他也不是完全压注于股票。他仍持有一些指数看跌期权，以便在股市下滑的时候保护基金。但是佛瑞斯特感觉自己上周已经完成了基金的目标：捕捉市场下跌的30%，市场上涨的60%。他说：“要做到这一点，你必须在市场接近底部的时候加仓 。但底部令人恐慌。”他认为手头持有的优质公司股票在未来市场艰难的时候会有不错的表现。

    标普500指数在周四超过周二的高点之后，佛瑞斯特认为市场将会转好。眼下，情况确实如此。周五上涨之后， 股市在本周一再度走高。

    佛瑞斯特觉得自己终于可以抽空去度假了。他倒不是特别在乎排名，但是他的基金过去一个月的跌幅相对较小，仅下跌了3.6%，这比其他1,152个竞争对手好很多。

Wednesday: Dow -4.6%

    He slept better Tuesday night and arrived Wednesday to crazy numbers on his Bloomberg screens. The overnight futures on the S&P 500 index collapsed from 1170 to 1077, an 8% swing. "It just looked like the world was coming to…." Forester stops himself before finishing. "Well I shouldn't say that, sorry. But I started to think, maybe I'm just wrong."

    In just a couple hours he went from bullish to insecure. Stocks crashed out of the gate Wednesday before rising by late morning. By then Forester had steeled himself into buy mode again. He reduced the index puts again and added nearly $10 million of shares across nearly his entire portfolio, which includes top names Chevron (CVX), Marathon Oil (MRO), Altria (MO), The Travelers Companies (TRV), and Microsoft (MSFT). He didn't have time to pick favorites.

    After running up most of Wednesday afternoon, stocks crashed again late to finish down 4.6% on the day. Forester was miffed. "Maybe I'm missing something here," he thought. "Because the market is really acting funny. You don't get these large swings in markets unless you're in a 2008 environment."

    By the end of Wednesday, Forester was spent. He had been barking orders at his two analysts for two straight days. The S&P had whipsawed by more than 4% every day that week. He had been trying for three weeks to take a vacation to Green Lake, Wisc., with his family.

    Deep down Forester thought he had made the right moves. He bought stocks Tuesday and Wednesday after they had fallen about 20% from their year highs. He knew the U.S. economic news hadn't changed as dramatically as the stock market seemed to indicate. So he went home and tried to get some rest. He finally got a good night's sleep.

Thursday: Dow +4%

    When stocks opened higher Thursday and kept climbing, Forester started smiling. The fund still has about 15% of its assets in cash, so he isn't making an all-in bet on stocks. And he still owns index puts to protect the fund during future falls. But Forester feels like he accomplished the fund's objective last week: capture 30% of the market downside, and 60% of the upside. "In order to do that you have to add to your exposure somewhere near the bottom," he says. "But it's scary down here." He thinks his high-quality companies will hold up well during tough times ahead.

    Once the S&P 500 passed Tuesday's high during trading on Thursday, Forester thought things would get better. For now, they have. After rising on Friday, stocks are up again Monday.

    Forester is finally thinking he might be able to get away for a couple days of vacation. And not that he much cares, but his fund's relatively small 3.6% decline the past month is better than every single one of its 1,152 competitors.