欧洲面临崩盘危机（上）

美国摧毁欧洲经济

    人们越来越担忧这些债券将大幅贬值，甚至出现违约，金融市场为之动荡不安。事实上，美国股市最近的暴跌，以及那疯狂的波动，一方面是因为标普（S&P）下调了美国债信评级所致，另一方面也正是因为欧洲债务危机蔓延。大量传言称，持有成百上千亿欧元意大利和西班牙国债的银行可能很难维持短期融资能力，而这种能力是它们的生命线。

    即使欧洲银行不会面临流动性紧缩问题，如果其持有的主权债券贬值，其资本仍将严重下降，这将迫使它们停止发放新贷款。信贷紧缩可能会把欧洲推入严重的经济衰退，而这又可能扼杀美国经济复苏，因为美国出口的商品中有21%进入欧盟市场。现在，即使出现世界末日般的局面也是有可能的，届时某个或多个经济脆弱的国家将放弃欧元，造成极为庞大的违约及全欧范围的银行崩溃。

    确定无疑的是，欧洲经济增长已经在急剧放缓，而且可能会持续走软。原因在于：利率将远远高于预期，而银行因为担心资本充裕度问题，将会越发惜贷。“企业和消费者贷款的利率完全取决于政府借款的成本，而后者正在迅速攀升，”卡内基基金会（Carnegie Endowment）经济学家尤里•达杜什指出，“所有这些不确定性使公司不愿进行新的投资，也不愿招聘新员工。他们的计划不得不暂时搁浅。”

    这场债务危机很大程度上意味着欧盟、特别是成员国多达17个国家的欧元区未能实现当初的承诺，这一惨败令人震惊。欧元1999年启用，旨在促使欧洲国家缔结更紧密的经济联盟，使希腊和意大利等经济较弱的国家能从繁荣昌盛的伙伴国家那里获得力量，弥合双方在增长率和生产力方面的鸿沟。

    欧元被赞誉为欧盟最具代表性的成就，是使欧洲与美国和亚洲平起平坐而押下的重注，但它并未取得成功。意大利、西班牙和希腊等国并未推行市场自由化，而是保留了几乎所有最恶劣、最不利于竞争的政策，包括集中工资谈判制和支持零售业卡特尔的限制性牌照政策等。现在，维系欧元区不致解体的唯一原因是：法国、特别是德国等富国仍愿意提供巨额援助资金，同时欧洲央行（the European Central Bank）远远超出其章程规定的权限行事，极力支持经济弱国。8月中旬，欧洲央行甚至同意购入西班牙和意大利债券，以缓解这两个国家的压力。

    没人能知道这些紧急措施能维持多久。因此，债务危机已经迫使欧洲走到了一个历史性的转折点。虚度多年光阴后，各国政府现在必须争分夺秒。它们面临的挑战包括两个层面：首先，债台高筑的国家必须迅速消灭庞大的财政赤字，防止债务越滚越多；其次，这些国家必须证明自己能获得足够的增长速度，从而满足清偿现有到期债务之需，进而削减债务负担。这就要求它们强力推行开放市场改革，迅速完成经济现代化的艰难使命——这些改革本该在几十年前就开始推行了。

    欧洲作出了许多不明智的选择，浪费了不少宝贵机会，因此深受其害，最近我走访了最有代表性地反映了这一切问题的国家——希腊。繁荣转眼之间就成了灾难，难怪不少希腊人茫然不知所措。“我们意识到希腊已经破产。如果不作出改变，这个国家就完了。”芭芭拉•维尼科斯如是说。她是该国最大的奢侈品进口商之一Notos Com旗下百货商店部门的首席执行官。不过，希腊人对本国政界非常怀疑，不相信他们有能力降服工会和卡特尔，并实现承诺。如果他们无力做到，那这个民主的发源地可能会把欧洲各国的政府统统拖入混乱。

How Washington is destroying the economy

    The growing fear that those bonds will plummet in value, or even default, is roiling financial markets. Indeed, the recent plunge in U.S. stock prices -- and the manic volatility -- is as much about the contagion in Europe as the S&P downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt. Rumors are rife that French banks, which own tens of billions of euros in Italian and Spanish bonds, may be struggling to maintain the short-term financing that's their lifeblood.

    Even if Europe's banks don't face a liquidity crunch, a drop in the value of sovereign bonds would severely deplete their capital, forcing them to halt new lending. The credit crunch would probably throw Europe into a severe recession. That in turn could kill the U.S. recovery, since the European Union accounts for 21% of U.S. exports. Even a truly apocalyptic outcome -- where one or more weak nations abandon the euro, causing gigantic defaults and a Europe-wide banking crash -- can no longer be dismissed.

    What's certain is that growth in Europe is already slowing sharply and will probably keep weakening. The reason: Interest rates will be far higher than predicted, and banks, worried over their capital levels, will be increasingly reluctant to lend. "The rates on corporate and consumer loans all depend on what it costs the government to borrow, and that number is rising fast," says Uri Dadush, an economist at the Carnegie Endowment. "All the uncertainty makes companies wary about making new investments and hiring people. Their plans go on hold."

    Most of all the debt crisis represents the stunning failure of the European Union, and especially the 17-nation eurozone, to deliver on its promise. Launched in 1999, the euro currency was designed to bind nations into a tighter economic union so that weaker members such as Greece and Italy would draw strength from their prosperous partners and close the gap in growth and productivity.

    What was lauded as the EU's crowning achievement -- its bid to remake Europe as an equal of the U.S. and Asia -- didn't succeed. Instead of liberalizing their markets, countries such as Italy, Spain, and Greece left almost all of their worst, anticompetitive practices in place -- from centralized wage bargaining to restrictive licensing that supports cartels in retailing. Now the only thing keeping the eurozone from collapse is the willingness of rich countries such as France and especially Germany to provide big bailouts and of the European Central Bank to roam far from its charter to support the weaklings. In mid-August the ECB agreed to buy Spanish and Italian bonds to ease the pressure on those countries.

    It's impossible to know how long the emergency measures will last. Hence the debt crisis has driven Europe to a historic inflection point. After dawdling for years, governments must race to beat the clock. The challenge is twofold. First, the debt-ridden nations need to close their big budget deficits rapidly so that debt won't continue escalating. Second, they need to prove they can grow fast enough to service, then lower, the debt they have now. That will require a rapid and difficult campaign to modernize their economies by ramming through market-opening reforms they should have imposed decades ago.

    I recently traveled to the nation that best symbolizes all the poor choices and lost opportunities that are now haunting Europe -- Greece. The Greeks are dazed that years of prosperity turned so rapidly to disaster. "We recognize that Greece is bankrupt, and if we don't change it's over," says Barbara Vernicos, CEO of the department store division of Notos Com, one the nation's largest importers of luxury goods. But Greeks deeply doubt the ability of their politicians to face down the unions and cartels and deliver. And if they can't, the country that invented democracy might plunge a whole continent of governments into chaos.