巴菲特投资美国银行：浴缸里萌生的灵感

    基金经理和分析人士担心美国银行因为需要筹集大量额外资本，从而不得不以极其低廉的价格发行新股。他们认为，该行的财务实力不足，无法覆盖不良抵押贷款带来的巨大的风险敞口。电视节目主持人、失望的投资者，甚至是美国银行内部获得股票分红的投行家都认为该行前景黯淡，行将崩溃，对莫伊尼汉的领导能力也不抱信心。在最近的新闻中，美国银行整日遭受抨击，成了欧洲债务危机一样的靶子。

    巴菲特的观点却截然不同：如果美国银行真需要他的钱，伯克希尔反倒不会投资了。这位伯克希尔董事长认为，美银能够解决当前的问题，而且事实将证明其基本的银行业务盈利能力很强。

    有趣的是，使政府雇员保险公司走出困境的是一部“发电机”——爱尔兰裔美国经理人杰克•拜恩兼具出众的分析能力和极富感染力的推销技巧，每天早上，他都在公司总部的中庭里把帽子高高抛向空中，像克努特•罗克尼（传奇美式足球教练——译注）那样鼓舞士气。金融媒体和多数华尔街人士都认为拜恩会吃败仗，但他以业绩证明他们当初看走了眼。

    伯克希尔对美银的投资显然是对莫伊尼汉的支持，正如当年给拜恩投下的信任票。莫伊尼汉曾说过美国银行几年内有可能赚得250亿美元，如果事实证明他是正确的，那伯克希尔的投资利润将超过100亿美元。

    而所有这一切都发端于巴菲特的回忆：半个世纪前使投资者惊慌失措的那场色拉油丑闻。

    译 小宇

    Fund managers and analysts fear that Bank of America needs to raise lots of additional capital by selling stock, at extremely low prices. They believe the bank lacks the financial strength to cover its big exposure to troubled mortgages. The TV talking heads, disappointed investors, and even investment bankers within BofA who get bonuses in stock and are watching it collapse, take a dim view of its future and Moynihan's leadership. In the current news cycle, the relentlessly negative tilt about Bank of America now rivals the talk about the European debt crisis.

    Buffett takes a different view: Berkshire wouldn't have invested in BofA if it needed his money. The Berkshire chairman reckons that the bank would work through its current problems, and that the underlying banking business will prove highly profitable.

    It's interesting that it took a dynamo to pull GEICO out of its ditch -- an Irish-American executive named Jack Byrne who combined excellent analytical skills with flamboyant salesmanship¬¬ who would heave his hat into the headquarter's atrium every morning and rally the troops like Knute Rockne. The financial press and most of Wall Street thought Byrne would fail, and he proved them wrong.

    Berkshire's BofA investment is clearly an endorsement for Moynihan, just as it was a vote for Byrne. And if Moynihan's claim that BofA will earn as much as $25 billion in a few years proves correct, Berkshire's profits will exceed $10 billion.

    It all started with memories of a salad oil scandal that spooked investors half a century ago.