新兴市场难逃经济流感，国内消费维系反弹希望

    部分原因在于，随着新兴市场国家央行开始着手对抗通货膨胀，新兴市场股票的市盈率也将会下降。这种情况尤以亚洲为甚。人们普遍担忧：在世界面临新一轮金融危机之际，新兴市场国家的贸易扩张计划或将停滞。这一担忧致美元从亚洲经济体大量外流。今年1月，外界对亚洲商品的需求量达到经济复苏后的高峰，但此后需求量持续走低，不能不引起人们的担忧——本地市场发展不充分，不足以摆脱由于西方市场消费能力减弱而导致的经济低迷。

本土消费将助一臂之力

    尽管在全球经济增长速度放缓的大形势下新兴市场将经历凄风苦雨，但是和之前经济衰退时所面临的困境相比，这次的情况并非生死攸关。很显然，目前大部分新兴经济体都以出口为主，也有迹象表明，新兴市场能够通过刺激消费来摆脱衰退。对于新兴市场政府来说，应对危机的关键是大力支持本国货币，保护本国国民的储蓄。到目前为止，亚洲各国的消费率仍然保持稳定。以韩国为例，根据英国巴克莱银行（Barclays）最新数据，虽然该国最近出口贸易疲软，再加上股指暴跌，该国的国内需求热度不减，个人在购买进口汽车方面的消费依然强劲。

    亚洲各国政府可以采取相应措施，提振本国经济和当地市场信心，阻止美元的外流；同时，稳定本国货币，以保持国内对本国及进口商品的消费水平。就这方面而言，韩国显然在各新兴经济体中处于领先地位。为遏制韩元贬值，本周，韩国央行（Bank of Korea）采取了一项激进的汇市干预措施。据报道，韩国央行抛出了100亿美元，用以弥补由于华尔街资金撤退所造成的影响。这一举措在周五成功地稳定了韩元兑美元的汇率。

    韩国如此迅速且果断的救市举措值得其他新兴经济体效仿。对于大部分新兴市场国家来说，这简直是小菜一碟，因为它们与美国存在较大的贸易顺差，手中持有大量美元储备。现在，关键是要在不影响本国大型企业盈利能力的情况下，通过注入足够的美元以保持本国购买力。但各国要根据自己的情况找到适合自己的最佳平衡点。

    新兴市场经济体尽管目前正处于经济困境，但是来年定会出现强劲增长的局面。因为新兴市场国家人民日益富裕，国内需求也会相应增长，将在本国经济的增长中发挥更大的作用。随着世界范围内的需求量下跌，商品将更加低廉，有助于当地企业削减成本，从而将更多商品用于供应本地市场。

    只要本国货币保持稳定，就可以保持国民的消费能力，这样，尽管全球经济不景气，国内消费依然会有所增长。只要抓住这一线希望，新兴市场必将走出低谷，届时，华尔街投资者的美金必将不请自来。

    译者：李淑玉/刘进龙

    Part of the reason for this is that price to earnings multiples in emerging market equities tend to fall when their central banks start fighting inflation. This is particularly important in Asia. U.S. dollars are moving out of Asian economies on fears that businesses might cancel expansion plans as the world faces another recession. External demand for Asian goods continues to weaken from their post-recovery peak in January of this year and there is concern that the local market is not developed enough to pick up the slack from reduced consumption from the west.

Consumption will soften the blow

    While emerging markets will experience headwinds in a global economic slowdown, it doesn't have to be catastrophic as was the case in past downturns. While most emerging economies are clearly export driven, there are signs that the local economies could blunt the downturn by consuming more. The key would be for emerging market governments to protect the savings of their populace by supporting the local currency. For now, consumption rates in Asian countries are holding. Take a look at Korea. Recent weakness in exports and the sharp decline in the Korean stock market have yet to dampen domestic demand, with discretionary spending on imported cars remaining strong, for example, according to Barclays (BCS).

    Asian governments can help support their local economies and pump up confidence in their markets to help stem the outflow of U.S. dollars, while at the same time supporting their local currency to preserve domestic consumption of both local and imported goods. South Korea appears to be on the vanguard of the emerging market economies in this regard. The Bank of Korea has been very aggressive this week in trying to stem slides in the won, dumping a reported $10 billion to make up for the investment outflows from Wall Street. The action was successful in capping losses on the won versus the U.S. dollar on Friday.

    Such quick and decisive action on the part of the South Koreans should be replicated across other emerging market economies. This should be relatively easy for most of them as they possess large U.S. dollar reserves given their large trade surpluses with the U.S. The key will be to inject just enough dollars to preserve purchasing power without compromising the earnings power of their largest companies. A careful balance needs to be found, which will be bespoke for each country.

    Emerging market economies are still slated to see robust growth next year despite the current headwinds. A larger percentage of that growth will be from a pickup in domestic demand as their populations grow richer. Cheaper commodity prices due to a perceived downswing in worldwide demand will help local businesses cut costs, allowing them to offer more of their products to the local population.

    If local currencies remain stable, then purchasing power will be preserved, allowing for domestic consumption to grow despite the economic downturn. This silver lining should help emerging markets rebound from their current lows and once again become an attractive place for Wall Street to park its cash.