欧洲应该欣然接受破产

    除了盈利增长，当然还有盈利质量。上周四，摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）公布的每股收益为1.02美元，掀开了盈利数据之争——该数据初看似乎稳稳高于市场普遍预期的0.92美元。但一如既往的是，问题在于盈利质量。摩根大通每股收益中有0.29美元是“由于公司信贷利息扩大，投行业务的借方估值调整（DVA）盈利。”因此，如果我们剔除信贷利差扩大对摩根大通盈利的贡献，该公司每股收益同比就会下降27%。这就是争议所在！

    全球宏观情况方面，更迫在眉睫的问题是中国可能难以维持对欧洲的高出口。公平而言，9月份中国出口总额增长17.1%，这是一个很高的数字。不幸的是，对欧洲出口（欧洲是中国最大的贸易伙伴）大幅下滑，从8月份的同比增长22%继续下降至9月份的9.8%，创下18个月来中国对欧洲出口同比增幅的次低。

    中国的经济活动显然在放缓，但在我们看来，目前断言中国经济将大幅放缓仍为时过早。正如我的同事达瑞斯•戴尔上周写到：

    “全盘考虑，中国启动货币宽松政策可能仍需一段时间。以2008年为参照，我们可以看到，中国整整等了6个月才确认了CPI增速为持平至下降，CPI同比下降380个基点后，中国才在当年9月初宣布降息。”

    当然了，经济增速不会永远放缓，而且不管是通过货币政策刺激，还是内生性增长，我们期待看到的积极催化剂是经济增长加速。但到目前为止，这一点仍难有定论。

    Alongside earnings growth, there is of course the quality of earnings. J.P. Morgan (JPM) kicked off the earnings debate yesterday with earnings of $1.02 per share -- at first blush, it seemed solidly above consensus of $0.92. The question as always, though, relates to the quality of earnings, and $0.29 of EPS was a "benefit from debit valuation adjustment ("DVA") gains in the investment bank, resulting from widening of the Firm's credit spreads." So, if we back out the benefit to JPM's earnings from widening of their credit spreads, EPS declined -27% year-over-year. Yikes !

    The more pressing failure in global macro land is the failure of the Chinese to maintain high exports to Europe. To be fair, in aggregate Chinese exports overall were up 17.1% in September, which is a formidable number. Unfortunately, exports to Europe, Chinese largest trading partner, declined substantially, sequentially from 22% year-over-year in August to 9.8% in September. This is the second-slowest year-over-year growth rate of Chinese exports to Europe in 18 months.

    Chinese economic activity is clearly slowing, but in our purview it is still too early to call for massive Chinese easing. As my colleague Darius Dale wrote this week:

    "All things considered, it could be a while before China pulls the trigger on the monetary easing front. Merely using 2008 as a semi-comparable reference, we saw that China waited a full six months for confirmation of flat-to-down sequential CPI growth and a -380bps reduction in YoY CPI before cutting interest rates in early September of that year."

    Certainly though, growth doesn't slow forever and whether by monetary stimulus or organic means, the positive catalyst we will be looking for is growth accelerating, on the margin. So far though, it is too early to bet on that.