苹果营收低于预期没什么大不了

    分析师有责任根据苹果公司的指标设定合理的估算参数。众所周知，苹果公司非常保守，而且一贯如此。公司确实给出了明确的范围，分析师应该参照公司在相关季度的实际表现表现，将这一范围视为上下浮动的参数。苹果公司不断重申，第4季度是一个过渡季。但分析师却似乎并未理解这种暗示。

    据汤姆森金融公司（Thomson Financial）报道，分析人士普遍希望该季度苹果公司能够实现营收297亿美元。这比苹果公司250亿美元的季度指标高出47亿美元。

    但有意思的是，这一预测比苹果公司的营收指标高出18.8%。这意味着，如果分析人士对每个季度的预测均超出公司指标18.8%，那么除了第3财季，自金融危机以来，公司每个季度的营收均低于预期。

    这说明什么问题？苹果本季度的表现超出平均水平，但华尔街却给出了一个不现实的数字，完全背离了近期的历史标准。简直是不可理喻。

    当然分析人士也有自己的理由。苹果公司第3财季的表现确实超过正常的12% - 18%的范围，超出指标24.22%。但苹果之所以能在第3季度实现这么高地营收增长，很大程度上是由于公司iPad产品运营速度大大超过了苹果公司自身的预期。刚刚进入第3财季时，苹果公司是否会突破iPad 2的产量限制，公司并无明确预期。而且当时iPhone手机的表现也远远超出预期。

    我们有时确实会遇到这样的财季，但这种情况极为罕见。而且，在进行预测建模时，最好是坚持保守的立场。从这一角度而言，分析师本应领会苹果的暗示，根据苹果公司过去的平均表现进行预测。

    其实，苹果公司此次的营收下降根本不值得大惊小怪。之所以引发如此关注，很大程度上是由于分析师们对自己的估算过分热衷。苹果公司营收下降的原因只不过是分析师的错误。如果这种说法无法让你信服，或许苹果公司第1财季的指标能让你相信，这种“增长神话”还在上演。

    苹果公司给出的370亿美元收入指标显示，公司同比营收增长幅度将达到60%，每股利润率达77.7%。而且，为了实现420亿美元的营收指标，iPhone手机的销量必须比去年同期翻一番，达到3,300万台。去年同期iPhone手机的销量为1,623.5万台。

    不论是营收还是每股利润，苹果公司均遥遥领先于微软（Microsoft）。对于这样一家公司而言，如果说第1财季的每股利润增长率将达到77.7%，这是否有些滑稽？如果收回现金，明年公司的市盈率为5倍；反之，则为8倍，这岂不是更加滑稽？

    本文作者安迪•M•扎克为Bullish Cross资产管理公司基金经理，并负责运营财务网站Bullish Cross。

    译者：阿龙/汪皓

    It's the job of analysts to make sure that they set reasonable parameters to their estimates based on how Apple guides. Everyone knows that Apple is conservative, but they are consistently conservative. They do offer a clear-cut range, which should be the upper and lower parameters based on the quality of the quarter. This quarter, Apple harped on the fact that this would be a transition quarter. Yet, analysts didn't seem to take the hint.

    The analyst consensus for the quarter was calling for Apple to report revenue of $29.7 billion according to Thomson Financial. That is $4.7 billion above Apple's $25 billion guidance on the quarter.

    Now what's interesting about this revenue consensus is that it was 18.8% above Apple's revenue guidance. That means if you exclude fiscal Q3, Apple would have missed in every single quarter since the financial crisis if analysts had modeled for that same 18.8% revenue beat in each of those quarters.

    What does that say about analyst expectations this quarter? Apple beat by its usual number, but Wall Street modeled for a number that was simply unrealistic by recent historical standard. This is completely insane.

    Now in defense of the analysts, Apple did report a number that was beyond the normal 12%-18% range we've seen in the past in fiscal Q3. In fiscal Q3, Apple reported a 24.22% beat. But a huge part of that beat had to do with Apple being able to get its iPad production up and running a lot faster than even Apple expected. Going into fiscal Q3, there wasn't a whole lot of clarity as to whether Apple would be able to get any traction with iPad 2 production constraints. We also had a much stronger than expected iPhone number.

    We tend to see quarters like this from time to time but they tend to be the rarity. Moreover, when it comes to modeling, it's always better to be conservative and to take the conservative stance. In this sense, analysts really should have taken a hint from Apple and modeled for the same type of earnings beat that Apple has typically delivered in the past.

    In the end, this miss is just a minor blip largely due to analysts simply getting a little overzealous with their estimates. If you're not convinced that Apple's miss was due to nothing more than a mistake by analysts, perhaps Apple's fiscal Q1 guidance can convince you that the growth story is still in tact.

    Apple's $37 billion revenue guidance suggests that the company is going to report 60% year-over-year revenue growth and 77.7% EPS growth. Moreover, in order for Apple to report $42 billion in revenue as indicated by its guidance, the company would have to report sales of about 33 million iPhones. That is a 100% growth rate for the iPhone above the 16.235 million iPhones Apple sold in the same quarter last year.

    For a company that has far eclipsed Microsoft in both revenue and EPS, doesn't it seem a little ludicrous that Apple is going to produce 77.7% EPS growth in fiscal Q1? Doesn't it seem even more ludicrous that the company trades at only five time next year's earnings if you back out cash and only eight times next year's earnings if you don't back out the cash?

    Andy M. Zaky is a fund manager at Bullish Cross Asset Management and runs the financial newsletter, Bullish Cross.