三问欧债救助方案

    上周穆迪（Moody's）警告称，EFSF计划对那些信贷评级为AAA的欧元区成员国的影响为“负面”，因为最终要指望靠这些国家的税收收入来完成整个救助计划。穆迪发出“负面”警告后，部分国家的评级可能会被下调，导致它们的融资成本相应提高，进一步陷入债务泥沼。对于失业率达9.9%的法国而言，这尤其让人忧心。上周标准普尔（S&P）指出，法国由于财政状况不佳，早就处于失去AAA评级的边缘。如果失去AAA评级（市场普遍预计12月份标准普尔在对法国评级进行回顾时可能做出这样的调整），就意味着EFSF债券的评级可能降低，欧洲人将必须提供更高的收益率才能吸引投资者。

    如果标准普尔贯彻其夏初的表态，上述前景可能已经不可避免，而EFSF将遭遇重创。今年夏初，这家信用评级公司曾表示，任何“联合信贷安排”的评级将取所有出资国中的最低评级，而不是最高评级。由于欧元区包括希腊在内的所有17个成员国都参与了出资，EFSF的债券无疑应为垃圾评级。在这一关键问题上，欧洲人正在和评级机构磋商，但上周没能达成一致意见。

    假如外国政府为了表达对欧洲的支持，纷纷购入债券，垃圾评级可能就不是问题。但现在除了中国已表明会考虑投资EFSF，其他国家如巴西、澳大利亚和俄罗斯，都还没有明确表态。信贷评级问题更加明朗化之前，救助方案依然无法获得推进。

希腊减债

    方案需要回答的最后一个大问题是与希腊减债有关。方案呼吁银行业“主动”将所持希腊债务减半。方案没有说明如何实现这一点，但可能会迫使银行将所持债券换成长期债券。虽然目前已经就减债问题和部分银行达成某种一致，但都是非正式的协议，因此银行仍有可能拒绝参与。

    减债50%非同小可，为此银行业可能需要在如此不景气的时节进行募资。没有银行的大力支持，救助方案可能引发信贷事件，大幅推高希腊信贷违约掉期（CDS），从而重击做多希腊债券的银行和对冲基金，并可能引发金融震荡。但很难分辨哪些银行是在做多希腊债券，哪些银行是在做空希腊债券。这也是周一欧洲银行股下跌的部分原因。

    此外，救助方案希望到2020年将希腊的负债/GDP比率回调至120%左右。老实说，这样的负债比率仍属高位，而且前提是在此期间希腊经济不会继续恶化。如果希腊无法重振旗鼓，银行业最终可能要冲销所有的希腊债务。如果希腊经济继续疲弱，也可能导致大批私人贷款违约，危及曾在经济繁荣时期向希腊公众放贷的欧洲银行。

    欧债救助方案有很多令人称许的地方，但还是有太多问题需要回答。市场似乎正在逐渐认识到这一点。欧洲人给出明确的答案，填补这些漏洞之前，市场将延续震荡态势。

    Moody's issued a warning last week that the EFSF plan is a "negative" for the nations in the euro zone that have a triple-A credit rating, since it will ultimately be their tax dollars that will be counted on to hold this entire bailout together. The "negative" warning from Moody's (MCO) could lead to downgrades in some countries, which would increase their cost of funding, plunging them further into debt. This is especially a concern for France, which has an unemployment rate of 9.9%. S&P said last week that the country is already in danger of losing its triple-A rating as a result of its weak fiscal situation. The loss of that rating, which is widely expected to occur when France comes up for review by S&P in December, will mean that the EFSF bonds could take a credit rating hit, forcing the Europeans to offer a higher yield to attract investors.

    This all may be a moot point if S&P follows through with a promise that could crush the EFSF entirely. Earlier this summer, the credit rating agency said that any "combined credit facility" would carry the rating of the lowest, not the highest, member contributing to the fund. Since all 17-members are contributing, including Greece, the bonds should have a junk credit rating. The Europeans are in talks with the ratings agencies over this key issue, but no agreement was forged last week.

    A junk rating may not be an issue if foreign governments just snap up the bonds in a show of solidarity with Europe. But while China has said it would consider investing in the EFSF, other nations like Brazil, Australia and Russia have stayed mum on the situation. Until there is more clarity on the credit situation, this deal remains locked.

Greek haircut

    The last major hole in the deal is surrounding the Greek haircut. The deal calls for banks to accept a "voluntary" 50% haircut on their Greek debt. How this would be accomplished wasn't explained but it would probably force banks to swap their current bonds for ones that have a long maturity. While there has been some agreement with banks over the haircut, nothing is official, so they can still refuse to participate.

    The 50% haircut is massive and will force banks to raise capital at a precarious time. Without strong buy-in from the banks, the deal could trigger a credit event that could set off Greek credit default swaps. That could crush banks and hedge funds that are long Greek debt, creating a potential financial panic. But it is hard to tell which banks are long Greek debt and which are shorting it. That is helping fuel the drop in European banks stocks today.

    In addition, the plan hopes to bring the Greek debt to GDP ratio to around 120% by 2020. That is still a really high level of debt and excludes the possibility that the Greek economy will get worse. Banks could ultimately need to write off all that Greek debt if the country is unable to get their act together. Further weakness in the Greek economy could also lead to cascading defaults of private loans, threatening to bring down many European banks that issued private loans to the Greek public during the boom years.

    There are many things to like about the European plan, but there are still too many unanswered questions. The markets seem to be sobering up to that reality today. Until the Europeans get specific and fill in these holes, volatility will continue in the markets.