惠普不是股价陷阱，抄底买入适逢其时？

    惠普（Hewlett-Packard）看起来就像走了另一个极端的苹果。由于管理不善，惠普股价今年下跌了35%，只是在最近才稍有回弹。相比之下，尽管乔帮主逝世，CEO换帅，但苹果的股价今年还是飙升了25%。惠普在平板电脑市场无功而返，而苹果的iPad却仍然卖得异常火爆。许多手握数以十亿计美元的投资机构似乎已经放弃了惠普，但他们对苹果的未来却抱有十足的信心。因此现在苹果已经成了全球市值最高的公司，超过了埃克森美孚（Exxon Mobil）的两倍。

    如果我说眼下咱们先忽视苹果一会儿，再给惠普的股票一次机会，你会不会觉得我在散布异端邪说？但有些价值型投资者就是这么说的。上个月他们有了更多的证据来支持自己的观点。比如伯恩斯坦公司（Bernstein）的分析师托尼•萨克纳西，他对苹果公司的预测经常成为媒体头条。惠普的股价从49美元跌到22美元后，萨克纳西做了一番数据研究，发现惠普的股价十分便宜，甚至差不多是历史上最便宜的。它的股价仅为未来12个月预期收益的5.5倍。自从1990年以来，还从来没有哪个大型科技公司的股票达到或低于这个水平——除了近期同样萎靡不振的黑莓手机制造商RIM。

    《财富》杂志（Fortune）在11月7号的杂志中首次刊登了这个消息。此后，惠普的股价已升至28美元，上涨了22%。不过有些价值型投资者却认为，惠普的股价至少可以增长到40美元区间。

    投资者对惠普的失望不难理解。自从前CEO李艾科上任以来，惠普连续三次调低了销售预期。后来惠普推出了自己的WebOS移动操作系统和一些搭载了该系统的相关设备，同时兴奋地大谈特谈它们的发展潜力；然而才过了半年，这些设备就夭折了。然后在今年八月，李艾科宣布惠普斥资100亿美元收购了软件制造商Autonomy，在某些投资者看来，这笔交易的价格实在高得有些离谱。后来李艾科又宣布惠普打算剥离市值410亿美元的PC业务。好在上周惠普改变了主意，终于让华尔街欢呼雀跃了一回。

    李艾科的继任者梅格•惠特曼是否胜任CEO一职尚无定论。惠特曼曾任eBay首席执行官，但eBay只有15,000多名员工，而且eBay的业务是面向消费者的业务；惠普员工多达32万人，而且它的业务主要是面向企业，因此许多分析师都怀疑她是否能够挑起这个重担。

    不过有些正在买入惠普股票的价值型投资者却认为这个问题可能并不重要。比如经验老道的投资者沃利•威茨就认为，虽然从目前的股价来看，市场都说惠普已经破产了，但是在他看来，惠普尽管受到重创，但它仍是一个坚实可靠的科技巨头，在打印机和服务领域也有坚实的循环现金流。威茨说：“让我们稍微感到欣慰的是，惠普的一些个别业务是好的，至少是比较不错的。”他在九月底买入了惠普的股份，赌定股市一定会出现过度反应。

    Hewlett-Packard looks like Apple's polar opposite. HP's stock is down 35% this year, despite a recent bump, thanks to horrendous management; Apple's shares shot up 25% amid a CEO change. HP failed to create a hit tablet; Apple's iPad is still selling like crazy. And institutional investors who control billions seem to have given up on HP while those same investors believe enough in Apple's future to make it the world's most valuable company -- worth more than even Exxon Mobil (XOM).

    So is it heretical to suggest that you ignore Apple (AAPL) for the moment and give HP (HPQ) shares another shot? That's what some value investors are saying. And last month they got more ammunition. Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi, who usually grabs headlines for his Apple forecasts, did some number crunching after HP's shares fell from $49 to $22 and found that HP is cheap -- like historically cheap. It's trading at 5.5 times expected earnings for the next 12 months. No large technology stock -- other than that of reeling Blackberry-maker RIM (RIMM) -- has traded at that level or below since 1990.

    Fortune first reported this story in its Nov. 7th issue. Since then, HP's stock has jumped 22% to $28. But these value investors still see a stock than can at least grow into the $40s.

    Investors' frustration with HP is pretty easy to dissect. Since former CEO Leo Apotheker took over last November, the company lowered sales forecasts three times. It killed devices for its mobile operating system half a year after excitedly talking up their possibilities. Then in August, Apotheker announced HP's $10 billion acquisition of software-maker Autonomy that seemed a little too rich to some investors. He followed it up with news that HP was exploring a spinoff of its $41-billion PC business. Which was finally reversed last week, to Wall Street cheers.

    Whether his replacement Meg Whitman is the right fit is anybody's guess. Analysts have wondered whether Whitman, who as CEO of eBay (EBAY) managed the site's 15,000 employees and its consumer-focused business, can lead HP's 320,000 employees and the enterprise-focused company.

    The value investors buying HP stock say it may not matter. Veteran Wally Weitz thinks at its current share price, the market is saying HP is broken. He sees a solid, albeit banged-up, tech giant with solid recurring cash flows in printers and services. "We've tried to get comfort that the individual businesses are good or at least pretty good," says Weitz. He bought shares in late September, betting on a market overreaction.