惠普不是股价陷阱，抄底买入适逢其时？

    惠普股价大跌后，来自Good Haven基金的投资人拉里•皮特考斯基和基思•特劳纳也进行了一番研究。GoodHaven基金拥有7,000万美元资金。他们发现惠普在服务器领域的老大地位仍然无人能撼动，另外惠普的软件、服务和打印机业务也是赚钱的。不过他们认为过去几年惠普的运营收入应该比惠普官方公布的数据少了20%，部分原因是由于前CEO马克•赫德为了满足华尔街的胃口而削弱了公司的研发投入。因此惠普今年的每股运营收入应该不是官方公布的5美元，而是介于3.5美元到4美元之间。即便这样，惠普的市盈率仍在5%上下。“这还能有什么风险？”特劳纳反问。

    皮特考斯基和特劳纳曾经是费尔霉姆基金（Fairholme Fund）老板布鲁斯•伯克维茨的合伙人，他们经常购买其他投资人避之唯恐不及的股票，而且他们这样做已经有很长的历史了。10年前的科技泡沫时期，尽管纳斯达克股指一路飙升，他们却独具慧眼地持有了保险公司和能源公司的股票。他们新成立的GoodHaven基金自今年开张以来已经上涨了将近7%，让竞争对手黯然失色。

    他们二人还谈到了另一种研究市盈率的方法：不是用股价除以收益，而是收益除以股价。由此产生的“净收益率”可以告诉投资者，如果理论上收益不变的话，每投资1美元可以带来多少回报。惠普的净收益率几乎达20%。

    特劳纳称：“在大部分企业的净收益率接近0%的情况下，我们认为，我们在惠普身上实现的净收益率可能会接近20%，而且惠普还有非常庞大的企业业务基础。”

    当然，如果营收暴跌，光是有较高的净收益率也是没意义的。随着不景气的公司的市值变得越来越便宜，净收益率会产生一个“价值陷阱”。不过从特劳纳和皮特考斯基看来，惠普的各项业务并不会永远下滑。惠普的服务业务贡献了公司净利润的近40%，而且它还与大量客户签订了长期合同，可谓惠普的定海神针。另外惠普还偷师IBM，利用其服务器领域的老大地位，拓展利润更高的软件和服务领域。尽管惠普在低端打印机市场遭到了竞争对手的打击，但随着惠普把重心转向利润率更高的高端打印设备，惠普仍能保证这个领域的利润。

    砍掉WebOS及相关设备业务给惠普造成的损失高达10亿美元。不过特劳纳和皮特考斯基并不认为惠普的现金流会在短期内干涸。他们认为惠普的价值会渐渐恢复，一旦惠普理清头绪，其股价可能突破40美元。

    惠普的股票看起来似乎不如苹果的股票来钱快。惠普在欧洲有大量业务，因此欧洲的经济问题，加上美国销量的不景气，都会对给惠普带来压力。但这也正是为什么有些投资者认为现在买入惠普股票正是时候。

    译者：朴成奎

    Investors Larry Pitkowsky and Keith Trauner of the $70-million GoodHaven Fund (GOODX) also studied HP as shares declined this year. What they found was a company with a No. 1 position in servers and cash-generating businesses in software, services, and printers. They assumed HP's operating earnings over the past few years should have been 20% less than what was reported, in part because former CEO Mark Hurd was starving the company of R&D to satisfy Wall Street. So instead of almost $5 in operating earnings per share this year, HP will really earn more like $3.50 to $4 per share. That still works out to a mid-single digit price-to-earnings ratio. "What are you risking?" asks Trauner.

    Former partners of Bruce Berkowitz at the Fairholme Fund, Pitkowsky and Trauner have long histories buying stocks that others avoid. During last decade's tech bubble they held insurers and energy companies as the Nasdaq rocketed upward. Their new GoodHaven fund is pounding competitors, rising almost 7% since opening this year.

    The two talk about another way to look at price-to-earnings ratios. Instead of dividing price by earnings, you can do the opposite: divide earnings by the stock price. That produces an "earnings yield" and gives investors an idea, in theory, of what each dollar invested should return if earnings never change. HP's earnings yield is almost 20%.

    "In a near zero percent world," says Trauner, "we think we're approaching a 20% earnings yield on something where there really is a very large institutional base of business."

    Of course, a high earnings yield is meaningless if earnings fall off a cliff. That would create a value trap as declining businesses get cheaper and cheaper. But from what Trauner and Pitkowsky can tell, HP's businesses aren't undergoing permanent declines. The services business contributes almost 40% of profits and is anchored by large, and long-term contracts with customers. HP is borrowing a page from IBM (IBM) and building off its No. 1 position in servers into higher-margin software and services. And even though competitors are beating it in the low-priced printer market, HP is preserving profits by moving into higher-end, higher-margin printing devices.

    HP's taking a $1 billion charge to shut down its mobile operating system's devices business. But Trauner and Pitkowsky don't see HP's cash flows drying up anytime soon. They expect the value of HP to rise over time, and once things are sorted out, the stock to fetch more than $40.

    HP stock doesn't look like it could earn a quick buck like Apple's. Economic issues in Europe, where it does a lot of business, and sluggish sales in the U.S. are weighing on the company. But that's exactly why some investors think the stock is a deal today.