平地惊雷：希腊挟公投倒逼欧盟

    那么，在这场较量中谁占上风呢？假如希腊举行了公投，民众很可能会否决新方案，在地区内引发一波震荡。作为回应，欧盟可能会停止对希腊输血，迫使该国出现债务违约。违约将导致希腊所有的大银行全部倒闭，因为它们是希腊债券最大的持有人。但与此同时，数家欧洲银行也要减记几十亿欧元的资产，因为它们也持有了相当数量的希腊债券。

雪球效应

    事情到这里还没有结束。假如希腊人不得不违约，希腊债券的信贷违约掉期（CDS）将飙升，意味着做多希腊债券的银行们将欠下那些做空希腊债券的银行和对冲基金数十亿欧元。人们普遍相信发行、有时甚至持有这些CDS合约的大银行并没有准备好足够多的资金用于平仓。结果可能导致很多金融机构出现美国国际集团（AIG）式的倒台。这正是周二全球银行股暴跌的原因，特别是那些在CDS市场有大量敞口的银行，比如美国银行（Bank of America）和摩根大通（JP Morgan Chase）的美股跌幅均达到了6%左右，以及欧洲的法国兴业银行（Societe Generale），其跌幅更是超过了16%。

    这种CDS连锁反应正是欧洲人为何这么长一段时间以来持续向希腊输血的重要原因之一。希腊经济全面崩溃当然不是什么好事，但在雷曼兄弟破产（Lehman Brothers）三年后的今天，如果全球银行体系再度陷入信心危机，则无疑是一场灾难。最新救助方案中的一项重要内容就是要求银行和其他希腊债券的主要持有人同意将债券减值50%。由于这样的减债是主动的“软违约”，不会引发CDS合约飙升，因而只会波及实际持有希腊债券的银行。

    硬违约可能会导致所有的希腊债券成为一堆废纸。虽然这能让希腊轻装上阵，但结果将是得不偿失，因为希腊经济将元气大伤。帕潘德里欧深知这一点，希腊国会中的主要反对党成员也知道这一点，因此一直严厉抨击这位总理，称其不顾后果。如果周五帕潘德里欧能在不信任投票中过关，世界就要准备好面对未来几个月市场可能延续震荡的局面。全民公投可能会在今年12月底或明年1月初进行。

    为了避免出现这种局面，法国和德国可能需要放下架子，与银行业一起给希腊制定一个更优惠的方案。根据现行方案，预计到2020年希腊的负债/GDP比率将为120%左右。虽然这相比2013年底 的190%（预测值）有所改善，但仍属高位。而且，前提是希腊政府进一步缩减开支以及希腊经济实现正增长。这两个假设都很乐观，因为缩减支出和欧元坚挺可能会导致经济增速更加放缓。为摆脱困境，希腊需要减债逾半。目前银行业仍不愿接受更大幅度的减债，但硬违约可能产生的严重后果或许让他们心生畏惧，只能做出让步。

    沃伦•巴菲特曾把衍生金融工具比作大规模杀伤性武器。眼下，希腊债券的CDS合约确实显现出极大的杀伤力，而帕潘德里欧正威胁要摁下按钮。为避免出现任何不可收拾的后果，欧洲人可能需要对希腊的要求作出让步。

    So who holds the advantage here? If Greece goes ahead with the referendum, its citizenry would most probably reject the plan, creating a wave of instability in the region. In response, the EU would probably cut its lifeline to Greece, forcing the nation to default on its debt. That would cause all of the major Greek banks to collapse, as they are the largest holders of Greek debt. But at the same time, it would cause several European banks to take billions of euros in write downs, as they too hold significant amounts of Greek debt.

Snowball effect

    It doesn't end there. Since the Greeks were forced into default, credit default swap contracts on Greek debt would be triggered. That means the banks and hedge funds that were short Greek debt would now be owed billions of euros in insurance payments by those that were long Greek debt. It is widely believed that the large banks, which issue and sometime hold on to all those CDS contracts, have not set aside enough capital to payout claims. This could lead to an AIG-style meltdown of many financial institutions. That explains why bank stocks around the globe fell hard yesterday, especially those that play big in the CDS market like Bank of America (BAC) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) in the U.S., which were both down around 6%, as well as those in Europe like Societe Generale, which was down over 16%.

    This CDS chain reaction is one of the major reasons why the Europeans have kept Greece on life support for so long. The total collapse of the Greek economy would be a sad event, but a confidence crisis in the word banking system, three years after the fall of Lehman Brothers, would be a catastrophe. One of the major planks of the latest fix-it plan was to get the banks and other major holders of Greek debt to agree to take a 50% haircut on their bonds. Since such a cut would be voluntary "soft default," it would not trigger the CDS contracts, therefore limiting the fallout to those banks that physically held Greek debt.

    A hard default would probably see all that Greek debt go to zero. While that would wipe the slate clean for the country, it would be a pyrrhic victory as its economy would be decimated. Papandreou is fully aware of this fact, as are members of Greece's main opposition party in parliament, which has blasted the prime minister for being reckless. If Papandreou survives a vote of no confidence Friday, the stage will be set for months of further market instability. The referendum would take place probably at the end of December or beginning of January.

    To avoid all of this, the French and the Germans may need to swallow their pride and work out a better deal for the Greeks with the banks. Under the current plan, Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to be around 120% by 2020. While that is an improvement from the projected 190% ratio projected by 2013, it's still very high. The plan assumes further cuts in Greek government spending and a positive economic growth rate. Those assumptions are generous, since the cuts in spending, coupled with a strong euro, would probably lead to much slower economic growth. To dig itself out of this hole, Greece needs to cut its debt by more than 50%. The banks have balked at taking a larger haircut, but the threat of a hard default may scare them into accepting a greater loss.

    Warren Buffett once called derivatives financial instruments of mass destruction. The CDS contracts attached to Greek debt are proving to be quite a destructive force indeed. Papandreou is now threatening to push the button. To avoid a nasty surprise, the Europeans will probably need to yield to Greece's demands.