德国维持繁荣必须保住欧元

    问题是希腊官僚机构起用德国公司不完全是因为高质量和共同货币，还因为他们得了好处。西门子（Siemens）、戴姆勒奔驰（Daimler）、德国铁路（Deutsche Bahn）和Ferrostaal等德国公司都曾被指向希腊官员行贿数百万欧元，以获取希腊政府的军用和民用项目。其中，西门子曾被指为获取2004年奥运会前雅典电信基础设施升级项目，向希腊官员行贿1亿欧元。

    德国公司执行的这些大型项目大多用于升级希腊陈旧的基础设施。但这些设施陈旧是有原因的——希腊并不阔绰。但由于汇率高估和廉价融资，希腊人乐得拿了钱就花。

    但是我们能谴责他们吗？汇率高估也意味着希腊经济变得毫无竞争力。希腊的主要出口商品，如橄榄，卖到国外就太贵了。与此同时，在希腊岛上开派对的成本也比在土耳其类似地点贵出了几倍。经济繁荣时期，这不是什么问题；但当经济低迷时，希腊旅游业受到的冲击就很大了。

    德国开足了马力出口时，希腊经济疲弱以及庞大的赤字应该是可以预见的。由于欧元区区内贸易量很大，一个成员国的经常项目顺差自然意味着另一个国家的逆差。

德国退出欧元区代价高昂

    瑞银（UBS)曾尝试评估德国退出欧元区的成本。分析人士预计一次性成本可能达到德国GDP的20%- 25%左右，或德国人人均6,000-8,000欧元。此后，每一年它都会耗费每个德国公民约3,500-4,000欧元。

    相比之下，瑞银估计如果欧元区吞下希腊、爱尔兰和葡萄牙50%的债务，每个德国人只需一次性付出略高于1,000欧元即可。这样的结果远好于退出欧元区。这项研究没有包括救助意大利，意大利的未偿债务总额是所有这些国家债务总额的3倍左右。为讨论计，不妨假设为意大利减债50%——约9,000亿欧元，这样的救助理论上成本仍然低于德国选择退出欧元。

    退出欧元的成本如此高昂，是因为如果德国改回使用自己的货币，汇率会很高，难以支撑其出口型经济。虽然很难预测新的德国货币汇率将会如何，最好的猜测也认为可能是1元兑2美元左右，比当前的欧元兑美元的汇率高了50%。这意味着50,000美元的中档奔驰轿车将涨价至75,000美元。虽然它仍是品质优异的汽车，但市场上还有很多非德国产的汽车，美国消费者可能会做出其他的选择。

    为了保持竞争力，德国政府将不得不向市场大量注入新货币，导致节俭的民众储蓄大为缩水，进而可能引发国内震荡，届时希腊的骚乱可能只能算是小菜一碟了。

    德国人需要欧元，需要欧元汇率低估才能实现经济增长。为此，德国需要希腊和其他边缘国家留在欧元区内。嘴上说说将希腊赶出欧元区，说说双速欧洲可能会获得政治加分，但其实脱离了当今欧洲各国经济相互依存的现实。

    What's troubling is that the Greek bureaucracy was persuaded to use German companies, not only because of the quality and the common currency, but also because they were paid off. German companies like Siemens (SI), Daimler, Deutsche Bahn, and Ferrostaal have been accused of funneling millions of euros to Greek politicians to secure military and civilian government contracts. In one incident, Siemens allegedly paid 100 million euros to Greek officials to secure a contract to upgrade Athens's telecommunications infrastructure for the 2004 Olympic Games.

    Most of the big-ticket projects executed by German companies helped upgrade Greece's antiquated infrastructure. But there was a reason it was antiquated – Greece is not a rich nation. But with an artificially strong currency and access to cheap debt, the Greeks took the money and ran.

    Would you blame them? The strong currency also meant that the Greek economy became totally uncompetitive. Greece's main exports, like olives, were too expensive to sell abroad. Meanwhile, partying on Greek Island became several times more expensive than partying on a similar one in Turkey. That was fine when the economy was good, but when it seized up, Greece's tourism industry took a dive.

    The weakness in the Greek economy and its big deficits should be expected when Germany's export machine is firing on all cylinders. Since there is so much intra-eurozone trade, a current account surplus in one member naturally means there will be a deficit in another.

A costly exit

    UBS tried to assess what it would cost Germany if it did break away. The analysts figured it would cost around 20% to 25% of the country's GDP or 6,000 to 8,000 euros per German citizen upfront to walk away. It would then cost around 3,500 to 4,000 euros per German citizen every year going forward.

    In contrast, UBS figured that if the eurozone swallowed 50% of the debt of Greece, Ireland and Portugal it would cost a little over 1,000 euros per German in a single hit. That's a much better outcome than going it alone. The study did not include extending a bailout to Italy, which has total debt outstanding that is around three times that of all those nations combined. But for the sake of argument, say one takes a 50% haircut on Italian debt – some 900 billion euros, that bailout would theoretically still cost less to the Germans than it would if they decided to leave the euro.

    The reason it costs so much is because a new German-only currency would be very strong – too strong to support its current export-driven economy. While it's tough to know what the new German currency would be valued at, some of the best guesses have been around two dollars per euro, which is a 50% increase to its current exchange rate with the greenback. That means a mid-range $50,000 Mercedes would now need to be priced at $75,000. While it's still a great quality automobile, there are many of other non-German options that American consumers would probably choose in that case.

    To get competitive, the German government would have to flood the market with their new currency, which would then decimate the savings of their penny-pinching populace. The instability within Germany that would result from such a move would probably make the riots in Greece look like a fun trip to the beer garden.

    The Germans need the euro, but they need it to be weak in order to survive. To do that, they are going to need Greece and the other peripheral countries to stay in. While talk of kicking Greece out of the eurozone and pursuing a two-speed Europe may score some political points, it doesn't reflect the reality of today's interconnected European economy.