最佳投资策略玩转新兴市场

    施罗德（Schroders）新兴市场集团驻伦敦的产品经理艾伦•埃尔表示，两个涵盖更广的指数可以更清楚地解释直接投资新兴市场的理由。 两个股票指数——富时跨国企业指数（FTSE Multinationals Index，成份股为海外营收占比不低于30%的跨国企业）和富时新兴市场指数（FTSE emerging market index，成份股为几个新兴市场的本土公司）过去10年都给了投资者不错的回报。但在这期间，购买新兴市场公司股票的投资者年度回报率却高出13个百分点，年度回报率达到了19%。“在发达市场中，倾向于新兴市场的公司比一般公司要好，”埃尔称。“但还是赶不上新兴（市场）本土的公司。”

估值便宜且波动性降低

    赫德斯和施罗德都销售立足于新兴市场的基金，因此他们的观点并非没有偏见。不过，不管赞同哪一方的观点，有三点是无可争议的。第一，新兴市场指数的估值低于像标普500指数（S&P 500）这样的发达市场指数。第二，如今新兴市场股票的波动性较十年前已经大大降低。第三，新兴市场的股息增长率是发达市场的近三倍。

    经过过去一年的大跌之后，摩根士丹利新兴市场指数（MSCI Emerging Markets index）当前的动态市盈率为9倍，而标普500指数为12.5倍。仅凭这一数据，并不足以买进（新兴市场股票）。投资者依然很担心中国和巴西的市场，以及发达国家大规模去杠杆化将对新兴国家的影响。

    “新兴市场资产的估值还没有便宜到投资者可以无视（08年）那场危机的地步，” 汇丰（HSBC）策略师帕布罗•哥德伯格在最近发布的一份报告中表示。不过，缩水的估值确实能给新的投资者一个较低的门槛，让他们进入这个曾经高涨的市场。此外，哥德伯格还看到了一些希望。“新兴市场不全都是坏消息。美国经济数据好于预期，但衰退风险依然存在，中国经济硬着陆的风险被夸大了，新兴市场的决策层面对经济大环境恶化正在积极应对。”

    Broader indexes make clearer the argument for direct exposure, says Alan Ayres of Schroders' emerging markets group in London. Two stock indexes, the FTSE Multinationals index, which comprises companies with at least 30% of sales earned outside their home market, and the FTSE emerging market index, which includes companies based directly in several developing markets, each paid investors well over the past decade. But investors who bought emerging markets companies earned 13 more percentage points annually over the period, for a 19% annual gain. "Developed companies with that bias towards emerging markets do better than normal developed companies," Ayres says, "but not as well as emerging [market] companies."

Cheap and less volatile

    Both Holderith and Schroders market funds based on emerging markets, so their opinions aren't without biases. But whatever side you agree with, three things aren't debatable. First, emerging market indices are cheaper than developed market ones like the S&P 500. Second, emerging market stocks are far less volatile than they were just a decade ago. Third, dividends are growing nearly three times as fast in emerging markets than in developed ones.

    After slumping for the past year, the MSCI Emerging Markets index trades at 9 times expected earnings over the next 12 months compared to 12.5 times for the S&P 500. The data alone aren't a case to buy. Investors are still plenty worried about markets in China and Brazil, and the effect massive deleveraging in developed countries will have on emerging countries.

    "Valuations of emerging markets assets are not cheap enough to suggest that investors should look through the crisis," HSBC strategist Pablo Goldberg writes in a recent report. Still, reduced valuations do offer new investors a reduced entry point into formerly skyrocketing markets. Goldberg also offers some hope. "Yet not all is bad news out there. US economic data have surprised on the upside but recession risks remain, fears of a China hard landing are exaggerated and emerging market policymakers are reacting to a weaker economic backdrop."