法国信用保级行动不力或激化欧元危机

    法国的问题是它靠借钱过日子的时间太长了。虽然还不像意大利那么糟糕，但法国的负债水平相对于其经济产出也已很高了。法国政府总负债约为1.3万亿欧元，负债/GDP比率约83%。相比希腊（140%）、意大利（120%）之流，法国的负债/GDP比率仍相对较低，但对于一个拥有完美AAA评级的国家来说还是太高——远高于今夏刚刚失去AAA评级的美国。

    假如法国的经济增长前景强劲，这样的负债/GDP比率根本就不是问题，但如今的法国在这方面面临着严峻的挑战。法国一度强大的制造业近年已经开始走下坡路，导致法国进口的商业日益增多。曾几何时法国拥有巨额的贸易顺差，如今却背负着巨额贸易逆差。今年前6个月法国的贸易逆差高达375亿欧元。这个数字固然庞大，但真正麻烦的问题是其速长之快，因为这个数字较去年同期增长了36%。

    法国的劳动力成本高，似乎是出口下降背后的原因。德国人在欧元区内外的贸易中都挫败了法国人。法国人输在了两方面。首先，法国劳动力的竞争力降低。2000年，法国工人比德国工人的收入低8%，如今法国工人比德国工人收入高10%。其次，现在法国对德贸易每个月逆差约为10亿欧元，相比2004年完全掉了个，当时德国对法贸易每个月逆差数以10亿欧元计。

    法国经济到底怎么了？政府规定的每周35小时工作制自然是个问题，但情况要比这复杂得多。法国的政府支出水平在欧元区内最高，约占GDP的54%。如此高水平的政府支出是为了支撑法国优厚的福利体系，而资金来源则是负债和高税收。企业税负重导致法国商品十分昂贵，最终在国际市场上失去了竞争力。据法国最大的雇主协会MEDEF的数据显示，当今法国的总劳动成本有约一半用于支撑法国的福利体系，而与其相邻的德国这一比例仅为28%。

    市场原本指望法国终于能下定决心削减开支，大幅缩减社会保障。结果法国给出的方案却指望靠加税来解决问题。大幅削减政府开支、放宽劳动法对解决法国的财政困境很有帮助。这么做需要政府向该国强大的工会组织摊牌，然而，即使是保守的尼古拉•萨科齐总统眼下似乎也不愿这样做。

    上周三，法国债券的保险成本再度升至约255个基点。法国债券的收益率现已远高于4%， 相对于德国债券处于历史高位。如果法国在解决经济问题方面迟迟不动真格，法国的借贷成本将继续增长直到难以为继。这样的一场危机肯定会进一步让欧元的前景岌岌可危。

    France's problem is that it simply has been living beyond its means for way too long. While not as bad as Italy, France has a very high debt compared to its economic output. Its total government debt of around 1.3 trillion euros equates to a debt-to-GDP ratio of around 83%. That is relatively low in comparison to the likes of Greece, which is at 140%, and Italy, which is at 120%, but it is high for a country that has a perfect triple-A credit rating – much higher than the United States, which lost its triple-A rating earlier this summer.

    If France's economic growth prospects were strong, then its debt-to-GDP ratio wouldn't be an issue, but the country is facing some serious challenges on that front. France's once strong manufacturing sector has decayed in recent years causing it to import increasingly more goods. Where once the country ran large trade surpluses, it now runs large deficits. In the first six months of this year France had a trade deficit of 37.5 billion euros. While that's a large number, what's really troubling is how fast it has grown, up 36% compared to the same time last year.

    France's high labor costs seem to be behind the drop off in exports. The Germans have trounced the French in both internal and external eurozone trade. France is actually helping the Germans win in two ways. First, it has allowed its workforce to become less competitive. In 2000, French workers were paid 8% less than German workers. Now, French workers are paid 10% more than German workers. Second, France runs a trade deficit with Germany of around 1 billion euros a month. That is a complete reversal from 2004 when it was Germany that was running the billion-euro-a-month trade deficit with France.

    What has happened to the French economy? The 35-hour government mandated work week surely hasn't helped matters much, but it goes deeper. France has the highest level of government spending in the eurozone at around 54% of GDP. That high level of spending goes to support the generous French welfare state, which is funded through borrowing and high taxes. Those taxes are passed through businesses, making French goods very expensive and ultimately uncompetitive on the world market. Today, around half of the gross labor costs in France go to prop up the French welfare state, while it is just 28% in neighboring Germany, according to MEDEF, France's largest union of employers.

    The market was looking for France to finally announce plans to reduce its spending and force through meaningful cuts in its social safety net. Instead, it got a plan where France would try to tax its way out of its problems. Meaningful cuts in government spending, followed by liberalization of the nation's labor laws, will go a long way to solving France's fiscal dilemma. That would require a showdown with the country's powerful unions, something that not even conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy seems to have the stomach for at this point.

    The cost to insure French debt jumped again on Wednesday to around 255 basis points. Yields on French debt are now well above 4% and are at historic highs versus German bonds. Until France gets real about its economic issues, it will see its borrowing costs continue to increase until it becomes way too expensive to maintain. Such a crisis would definitely put the euro's future in peril.