银行抛售欧洲国债，监管部门难辞其咎

美国经验

    令人忧惧的是，全欧所有银行都在竭尽全力满足新版资本充足率要求，他们将会首先抛售价值最低的资产——而这些正是意大利发行的政府债券，该国国债利率已超过7%，迫使马里奥•蒙蒂领导的新政府匆忙采取严厉的紧缩计划。目前人们开始担忧，意大利国债市值的下降将影响其他国家的银行的稳定性，比如法国银行。那又会导致法国国债出现一定程度的贬值，用一位分析师的话来说，形成一个永无止境的“死亡螺旋”。

    斯泰尔称，欧洲应当学习美国前财长亨利•保尔森的经验，后者于2008年10月13日召见美国最大的九家银行的首席执行官们，宣布他们别无选择，只能同意接受政府注入资本。他还让这些银行巨头签了承诺书，一致同意接受注资。

    斯泰尔称，保尔森的策略起到了效果，因为它没有给银行留下任何余地，后者只能接受政府注资。而欧洲银行业则可以在2012年6月之前调整资本充足率。

    布鲁塞尔欧洲政策研究中心（the Center for European Policy Studies in Brussels）金融市场部门主管卡雷尔•兰努成：“他们应当在10月26日立即进行注资，而不是等待九个月。因为在这段时间内，损失将会变成现实。”

    兰努还指出，欧洲央行新行长马里奥•德拉吉的声明乃是另一大政策失误。德拉吉公开表示，欧洲央行不会做意大利等深陷困境的国家的最后贷款人。

    “这是可能出现的最愚蠢的失误，”兰努严辞批评道。这番言论向市场释放了这样的信息：欧洲银行会在公开市场购入一些意大利国债，但规模有限。银行家们得出结论：他们必须在欧洲央行改变主意之前立即抛售，而争先恐后的涌向逃离市场的出口自然会引发“踩踏事故”。

    就是否继续购买境况不佳的欧洲国家的主权债券，以将其收益率维持在合理水平，欧洲央行目前陷入了政治分歧。

Lessons from the U.S.

    The fear is that with all of Europe's banks struggling to reach their new capital limits, they will dump the least valuable assets first. Those happen to be government bonds issued by Italy, where interest rates have topped 7%, forcing the new government of Prime Minister Mario Monti to adopt a severe austerity program in a hurry. Now the concern is that the falling value of Italian bonds will destabilize banks in other nations, such as France. That could lead to French bonds losing some of their value, in a never-ending "death spiral," as one analyst termed it.

    Steil says Europe should have learned from former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who on October 13, 2008 called in the CEOs of the nine largest U.S. banks and told them they had no choice but to agree to an infusion of government capital. He had them sign pledge cards agreeing to take the money.

    Paulson's approach worked, Steil says, because it didn't allow the banks any alternative but to take the money. Europe's banks, on the other hand, have until June 2012 to adjust their capital ratios.

    "They should have done it right away on Oct. 26 and not waited nine months," says Karel Lannoo, head of the financial markets unit at the Center for European Policy Studies in Brussels. "In the meantime, the damage will be done."

    Another policy mistake Lannoo cites is the statement by Mario Draghi, the new president of the European Central Bank, that the ECB would not be a lender of last resort to foundering countries like Italy.

    "This was the biggest stupidity you could have," Lannoo says. It sent a message to the markets that the ECB would buy some Italian bonds on the open market, but only a limited amount. Bankers concluded that they should sell immediately before the ECB changed its mind, triggering a stampede to the exits.

    The ECB is currently split politically over whether to continue buying sovereign debt of struggling European nations in order to keep interest rates at reasonable levels.