全球央行联手也拯救不了欧元

蓝色债券与红色债券

    其中一种结构是成员国同时发行欧洲债券和主权债券。欧洲债券（在该结构中被称为“蓝色债券”）将承担相当于成员国国内生产总值60%的债务。如果某成员国的债务占比高于其国内生产总值的60%（多数成员国都是如此），则超出部分将由各国发行的主权债券（即“红色债券”）承担。所以，对于债务占国内生产总值比例高达120%的意大利，其中一半的债务将由欧洲债券融资，其余部分将发行意大利债券。这种结构的弊端比较明显，红色债券的利率可能依然很高，部分国家难以承受。虽然高利率会促使其进行财政调整，但可能无法给这些国家足够的时间来恢复财政平衡。

    欧洲债券另一值得商榷的结构则是部分成员国发行统一的欧洲债券，而另外一些成员国则继续发行主权债券。这一结构的特点是，愿意放弃财政自主的成员国可以加入欧洲债券阵营，而不太愿意放弃财政权的成员国则可继续发行主权债券，同时仍使用欧元作为其国家货币。上周末，部分认为该结构能加快欧洲债券问世进程的德国和法国官员对此进行了讨论。由于该结构并不强制要求成员国加入欧洲债券阵营，所以不需要修订欧盟条约（EU treaty），而条约修订则需要欧盟27国的审批，包括未加入欧元区的其他欧盟成员国。

    虽然这或许能加快欧洲债券的面世，但却无法解决欧洲债务危机。据德国媒体称，法国和德国希望首批欧洲债券成员国的信用评级必须达到AAA级，以打造所谓的“精选”债券。尽管此举会使这些国家免受危机蔓延的冲击，但却无法解决债务危机。除非欧元区外围成员国可以加入新的“精选”俱乐部，否则它们将继续面临融资压力。不过，该俱乐部成员国可能反对财政状况较差的成员国加入，而这将与发行统一债券以稳定欧元区形势的初衷相悖。

    欧元区总体财政一体化似乎是避免欧元崩溃的最佳方式。但如果欧元区各国预算不同步，即便欧洲央行最终演变成像美联储那样的最后贷款人也将无济于事。德国和法国领导人预计将在12月9日举行的欧盟领导人重要会议上宣布欧洲债券计划的部分内容。如果计划呼吁统一的欧洲债券，市场的担忧情绪应该能够得到缓解，但任何分裂欧元区的都可能令欧元惨淡收场。

Blue and red bonds

    One of those structures would see member states issuing both eurobonds and sovereign bonds at the same time. Eurobonds, which are called "blue bonds" in this case, would cover any debt equal to 60% of a member's GDP. If a nation has a debt larger than 60% of its GDP, which most do, then it would be covered by sovereign bonds issued by each country, called "red bonds." So Italy, which has a debt to GDP ratio of 120%, would have half of its debt guaranteed as eurobonds and the rest issued as Italian bonds. The trouble with this scheme seems obvious – those red bonds would most likely still have an interest rate that was too high for some nations to handle. While it pressures them to make fiscal changes, it may not buy them enough time to get their fiscal house in order.

    Another questionable eurobond structure is one that would see some nations issuing joint eurobonds while others stick with their own sovereign debt. This would allow those member states comfortable enough to give up the power of the purse to do so, while those not so comfortable could continue issuing their own debt while keeping the euro as their national currency. The idea was discussed last weekend between German and French officials who viewed this as a faster way to get eurobonds issued. Since it didn't force members to join the eurobond, it therefore did not require a change in the EU treaty – something that all 27 nations of the EU, including those not in the eurozone, would need to approve.

    While this might get eurobonds out there faster, it wouldn't solve the crisis. According to the German press, the French and the Germans wanted the first eurobond members to be those with triple-A credit ratings, creating what they called the "elite" bond. Such a scenario would effectively be a life raft to protect those nations from contagion, but wouldn't be a solution to the crisis. The peripheral members of the euro would continue to face funding pressure unless they were let in the new "elite" club. Those in the club could possibly vote to keep the more profligate members from joining, which would defeat the whole idea of issuing a joint bond to stabilize the eurozone.

    Total fiscal integration across the eurozone appears to be the best way to keep the monetary union alive. Whether or not the ECB evolves into a Fed-like lender of last resort is irrelevant if the eurozone's various national budgets aren't in sync. German and French leaders are expected to reveal part of their eurobond plan at an important EU leadership conference on December 9th. A plan that calls for a united eurozone bond should ease market fears, but any attempt to divide the eurozone could cause the euro to finally bleed out.