标普举起降级大棒，迫使欧洲央行出头

    标准普尔承认，欧元区经济和市场的紧密相连意味着他们的前途已经注定。欧元区形势进一步恶化将意味着包括北欧国家在内的所有成员国的经济衰退，从而加剧债务风险水平。

    上周末，德法两国开会讨论建立某种形式的财政联盟。这样的一个联盟将意味着朝着解决危机迈出了一大步。问题是这个由两个欧元区核心经济体提议的“联盟”看上去根本就不是什么联盟。初步报道显示，该财政联盟将敦促成员国遵守早已明文规定的债务上限水平。相关条例要求负债/GDP比率超过60%的成员国其预算赤字不得超过3%，但过去十年欧元区几乎所有成员国（包括德国）都曾在某个时候违反过这些条例。为什么？因为违反条例不会产生后果。这些“条例”更多地变成了“建议”，人们熟视无睹，结果才导致了今天的危机。

    “新财政条约”现在要对那些不遵守赤字规定的成员国实施“处罚”。目前不清楚具体如何执行。最初德国希望欧洲法院（European Court of Justice）能宣布国家预算无效，强制成员国遵守赤字条例，但法国反对这一提议。如果果真能赋予欧洲法院这个权力，那么“新财政条约”可能还会对市场产生一定的影响。没有这一条，“新财政条约”更像是一个建议，而不是具有约束力的协议。更糟糕的是，德法两国都认为，发行共同债券工具（即常说的欧元债券）不符合他们的利益。

    但一个真正的财政联盟意味着所有成员国的税收和债务共享共担。德国需要与希腊分享财富，意大利的债务压力则需要财力更为雄厚的成员国（如荷兰）来共同分担。税收的重新分配以及支出政策的协调将确保欧元区能够在欧洲央行的货币政策之下步调一致地采取行动。

    如果不能实现债务和税收共担共享，拯救欧元的唯一途径是欧洲央行必须正式成为欧元区的最后贷款人。欧洲央行将能按需印钱，用于购买和支持南欧国家的债券，直到私人投资者重返市场。欧洲央行行长上周表示，如果欧元区能够在协调财政政策方面取得更有更具实质意义的进展，央行愿意在市场中采取更积极的行动。

    目前不清楚欧洲央行是否会将法德计划视为具有实质性的意义。目前来看，该计划的力度仍显不够。标准普尔指出，欧洲央行的支持对于解决这场危机至关重要，也能避免大面积的评级下调。周一标准普尔公布上述消息后，法德两国发布了一项联合声明，称他们支持“新财政条约”。但如果本周末这项计划得不到充实，这两个国家都要做好评级被下调的准备。

    S&P recognized that the interconnectedness of the eurozone means that their fates are sealed. Further deterioration of the eurozone will mean a recession for all of its members, including those in the north, raising the risk level of their debt.

    Germany and France met last weekend to discuss forming some sort of fiscal union. Such a union would be a giant leap forward in solving this crisis. Trouble is, the "union" that was proposed by the two anchor members of the euro doesn't seem to be much of a union at all. Preliminary reports show that the fiscal union proposed would push nations to comply with debt ceiling levels that are already on the books. Those rules, which bar countries that have a debt to GDP ratio of over 60% from running budget deficits in excess of 3%, have been violated by almost all members of the eurozone at some point in the last decade – including Germany. Why? Because there was no consequence in doing so. The "rule" became more of a suggestion and everyone just ignored it, leading up to today's crisis.

    The agreement would now levy "sanctions" on those members that fail to adhere to the deficit rules. It is unclear how this will all work. Germany had originally wanted the European Court of Justice to be able to declare national budgets invalid and force nations to comply with the deficit rules, but France objected to that proposal. If the ECJ had that power, then this agreement might have stood a chance of impressing the markets. Taking that provision out now makes this union more a suggestion than a binding agreement. To make matters worse, both nations agreed that the issuing of a common debt instrument, known colloquially as a Eurobond, would not be in their best interest.

    But a true fiscal union would involve the pooling of tax receipts and debt among all members. The fortunes of Germany would need to be shared with that of Greece, while the burdens of Italy would need to be shouldered by stronger members, like the Netherlands. The redistribution of taxes and the harmonization of spending policies would ensure that the eurozone moves in lockstep with the monetary policies of the euro's central bank, the ECB.

    Without the pooling of debt and taxes, the only way that the euro can be saved is if the ECB officially becomes the lender of last resort for the eurozone. The ECB would be able to print as much money as needed to buy and support the debt of the southern European nations, until private investors get back in the game. The head of the ECB signaled last week that the bank would become more active in the market if it saw a more meaningful alignment of fiscal policies across the eurozone.

    It is unclear if the ECB would interpret the Franco-German plan as meaningful. As it stands now, the plan looks toothless. S&P noted that ECB backing would be critical to solving this crisis and that its support could avoid a mass downgrade. After S&P's announcement yesterday, France and Germany issued a joint statement saying they stand by their agreement. But if the plan isn't beefed up this weekend, then both nations should be prepare to fall together.