欧元坚挺的秘密

    过去一年帮助推高欧元的最后一个因素是市场盲目相信欧洲政界不会愚蠢到任由欧元崩溃。虽然过去一个月这方面的信心显著下降——最近10年期比利时、法国和德国债券的拍卖遇冷——但上周股市的反弹表明很多人仍相信，一切都会好起来。所有的眼睛都盯着本周五的欧盟峰会，分析人士正，这可能是挽救欧元的最佳机会，同时也是最后的机会之一。

欧元的出路在哪里

    身处风暴之中是很难看清方向的，但有一件事是肯定的：一谈到欧元区，所有人都立刻变得悲观。极端悲观者认为，欧元区的结构性和政治性问题大到难以解决，欧元将在今后几周内骤然瓦解。稍乐观一些的认为，经过几年经济衰退后，意大利、西班牙和希腊将退出欧元区，留下经济实力较强的几个国家。最乐观的则希望欧洲央行（European Central Bank）能挺身而出，购买西班牙和意大利的坏账，便于政界协商条约和修改法规，实现在德国牵头下欧洲在财政上和理念上更紧密地结合。

    在某种方式上，更紧密的财政联盟意味着欧元完成了一个轮回：从最初的政治联盟，到定义较窄的货币联盟，再回到政治联盟。这样的前景会让地区内的小国感到紧张，它们担心主权会受到侵害。但如果该地区要保住共同货币，现在需要的可能正是这样的举措。

    欧元的近期走势可能取决于欧洲央行领导人宣布的行动意愿到底有多坚决。交易员们表示，强硬的表态将使欧元汇率维持在5年交易区间内，而空洞的陈词滥调则会把它推上火山口。

    A final factor that may have helped prop up the euro over the past year is a measure of blind confidence that European politicians won't be stupid enough to let the euro fail. Though the past month marked a significant erosion of confidence on this front -- investors recently turned the other way at auctions of ten-year Belgian, French, and German bonds -- last week's equity rally suggests that many people still think that all will end well. All eyes are on Friday's EU summit, which analysts say could be one of the last, best opportunities to save the euro.

What's next for the euro

    It's hard to have perspective in the midst of a storm, but one thing is for certain: everyone is a bear right now when it comes to the eurozone. The die-hard bears believe that the eurozone's structural and political problems are too big to solve and that the euro will suddenly dissolve in the next few weeks. Less dramatic bears think that after a few recessionary years, Italy, Spain, and Greece will exit the euro, leaving the stronger countries bound together. The more optimistic bears hope that the European Central Bank will step up and buy up bad debt from Spain and Italy, which will allow politicians to negotiate their treaties and change statutes to bring Europe fiscally and thus ideologically closer together, with Germany at the helm.

    In a way, a tighter fiscal union would represent the euro coming full-circle: from its origins as a political union, to a more narrowly defined monetary one, and back to a political union. This is a frightening prospect for the region's smaller states, which fear an erosion of sovereignty. Yet it is likely needed now if the region is to retain its common currency.

    As for the resilient euro, its near-term future will likely hinge on the strength with which ECB leaders declare their willingness to act now. A firm commitment, traders say, could keep the currency within its five-year trading band. Empty rhetoric, on the other hand, could cause it to finally crater.