欧洲银行甩卖问题资产

谁在买入

    欧洲银行正在抓紧时间进行瘦身。但出售5万亿欧元的资产需要时间，也需要有财力非常雄厚的买家——国际银行和投资公司，如对冲基金。但现在看来欧洲银行还没有达到恐慌性抛售的地步，因为欧洲央行已有效地化解了银行业的流动性风险，它们不会在一夜之间倒闭。欧洲银行业有了一定的喘息空间，有望能通过讨价还价将一些资产卖个好价钱。鉴于欧元区危机持续，需求最旺盛的资产是欧洲银行的海外资产。这类资产大多来自大银行。

    “我们看到欧洲银行系统有几十亿欧元的资产在售，来自多个国家的许多银行，”资产管理规模为100亿美元的对冲基金——马拉松资产管理公司（Marathon Asset Management）的联合董事总经理和首席执行官布鲁斯•理查上上周告诉《财富》杂志（Fortune）。“在欧盟的27个成员国中，有10个国家的银行出售的资产占到总额的90%以上。”

    欧洲人率先开始将海外资产售予资产所在地的银行和投资公司。他们也希望将海外的子公司剥离给当地银行和投资公司。据理查称，良性资产似乎以平价或接近平价出售。银行业看来不愿大幅折价出售良性资产，一些希望捡便宜的买家暂难如愿。

    但欧洲银行业看来确实愿意就不良资产达成交易。对冲基金经理们告诉《财富》杂志，已有几家欧洲银行和他们接触，洽谈出售几十亿欧元的贷款资产包，资产包里满是五花八门的不良证券化资产，如商业和住宅按揭支持证券。马拉松资产管理公司已以六折的价格向某家欧洲银行（银行名称未予披露）买入这样的一个资产包，理查预计公司在此项投资上的回报率至少为15%左右。

    每个贷款资产包都是定制的，因此银行和基金经理们都在对资产包内容进行大量的尽职调查。理查称，马拉松资产管理公司对另一个证券化产品包的出价仅为两折，因为其质量不如之前购入的资产包。现在还不清楚银行是否会接受这么低的价格，但看来他们愿意考虑这些能帮助他们处置所有不良资产的提议。

    只要有欧洲央行撑腰，欧洲银行业就不用着急。但如果欧洲决策层不能解决欧元区面临的结构性问题，一旦欧元崩溃，由此引发违约潮，即便是欧洲央行也救不了银行业。

Who's buying

    Banks have wasted no time slimming down. But the sale of 5 trillion euros worth of assets is going to take time and will need buyers with very deep pockets -- global banks and investment firms, like hedge funds. But the selling banks don't appear to be in panic mode just yet. That's because the ECB has effectively absorbed the banks' liquidity risk, which means that they won't be collapsing overnight. This has given the banks some breathing room, allowing them to negotiate some strong deals for some of their assets. Given the stress in the eurozone, the assets that are the most in demand are the banks' foreign assets. The majority of those assets seem to be coming from the big banks.

    "We are seeing billions of assets for sale from the European banking system from many banks in multiple different countries," Bruce Richards, the co-managing partner and chief executive of Marathon Asset Management, a $10 billion hedge fund, told Fortune last week. "From the 27 countries in the EU, the banks in 10 countries represent over 90% of the asset disposition."

    The Europeans are first offloading their foreign holdings to banks and investment firms where those assets live. They are also looking to spin off subsidiaries in foreign countries to local bank and investment firms. Performing assets seem to be selling at or near par value, Richards says. The banks appear unwilling to let those go at steep discounts, frustrating some buyers hoping to make a quick buck.

    But the banks do seem willing to cut a deal on those assets that aren't doing so well. Hedge fund managers tell Fortune that they have been approached by several European banks looking to offload large multi-billion euro loan packages, which have been stuffed with a hodge-podge of dodgy securitized assets, like commercial and residential mortgage backed securities. Marathon has been a buyer and managed to snap up one of those packages from an undisclosed European bank for 60 cents on the dollar. Richards expects the firm to make a return at least in the mid-teens on that investment.

    Each of these loan packages are bespoke, so banks and fund managers are doing a lot of due diligence on what's inside of them. Richards says Marathon just bid 20 cents on the dollar on another package of securitized products that were of lesser quality than the firm bought earlier. It is unclear if the banks are willing to go down that low, but it seems that they are willing to entertain such offers that could help them offload all those risky assets.

    The banks can continue to take their time as long as the ECB has their back. But if European leaders fail to fix the structural problems plaguing the eurozone, not even the ECB can save the banks from the deluge of defaults that could come from a broken euro.