“阿拉伯之春”尚未释放外国投资热情

押注石油，还是人口？

    对于仍留在这个地区的、勇敢的投资者们，他们在MENA国家的投资要么是押注于海湾国家（沙特、阿曼、卡塔尔、科威特、巴林和阿联酋）主产的石油和天然气价格，要么是押注于人口更稠密的北非国家未来的人口结构趋势——摩洛哥、阿尔及利亚、突尼斯、利比亚、埃及、苏丹、黎巴嫩、叙利亚和约旦，这些国家中有几个（如埃及）是石油净进口国。

    世界银行（World Bank）现预计MENA地区2011年将增长3.6%，主要得益于海湾地区产油大国的经济增长。（在突尼斯和埃及长期执政的政府倒台以前，世界银行的预测经济增速是5%。）阿联酋迪拜一家金融咨询公司Isthmus Partners的合伙人哈维尔•切尔维诺表示，过去一年左右海湾经济已经企稳。沙特和阿联酋的房地产投资已企稳，电信公司，像沙特的Mobily和卡塔尔的Qtel近来表现不错。“在我们看来，叙利亚和埃及发生的事情很遥远，就跟远在纽约的人看这两个国家一样，”切尔维诺补充称。他说，相反倒是巴林不那么剧烈的、但持续不断的政治冲突对于海湾投资者而言更为紧迫。

    投资北非国家的依据是它们庞大、年轻以及（很多地方）教育程度良好的人口。这么庞大的工人、消费者和企业家群体需要就业和收入来满足个人和家庭支出需要。这就意味着经济增长，对资本投资者而言则意味着机会，当然，前提是投资者愿意承担投资“前沿”市场的风险，因为其中很多市场可能还没有出现股票交易所，也可能缺乏可信赖的法律体系。

    重大的问题是长期以来主导阿拉伯政坛的独裁者和君主们不想放弃对所在国家政治或经济的控制，尽管他们在过去几年采取了经济自由化举措。难以数计官僚和官员们同样不愿意，因为他们不想放弃从商人们那里获得的回扣和好处。事实上，“阿拉伯之春”的导火索之一就是一位美国外交官在一份遭到泄露的外交电报中称，突尼斯“似乎一半的”商界精英都是总统本•阿里的家族成员。一旦政府系统老迈的官僚们再也无力为本国百姓提供公共部门工作机会和福利而垮台后，真正意义上的阿拉伯之春就开始了。

A bet on oil or on people?

    For the hardy investors who have stayed in the region, their investments in MENA countries boil down to either a bet on the price of oil and natural gas produced mainly by the Persian Gulf states (Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates), or a bet on the demographics of the more densely populated countries of north Africa – Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Lebanon, Syria and Jordan, several of which (Egypt, for instance) are net oil importers.

    The World Bank expects the MENA region to grow 3.6% in 2011, mostly from gains by big oil producers of the Gulf. (Before the fall of longtime governments in Tunisia and Egypt the World Bank had predicted 5% growth.) Javier Cervino, a partner in Isthmus Partners, a financial consultancy in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, says the Gulf economy has stabilized over the last year or so. Real estate investment in Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. has stabilized and telecoms like Saudi Arabia's Mobily and Qatar's Qtel have done well lately. "From our point of view the events in Syria and Egypt seem as far away as they would to someone in New York," Cervino adds. Less explosive but still simmering political conflict in Bahrain, he says, was more urgent to Gulf investors.

    The investment argument for the North African countries is based on their large, youthful and in many places well-educated populations. This huge pool of workers, consumers and entrepreneurs wants jobs and income to spend on themselves and their families. That means economic growth and thus opportunity for investors who can supply the capital -- and are willing to take the risks that come with investing in "frontier" markets, many of which lack stock exchanges or trustworthy legal systems.

    The big problem is that the despots and monarchs who have long dominated Arab politics (recent moves toward economic liberalization over the last few years aside) don't want to give up either political or economic control of their countries. Neither do the countless bureaucrats and officials who rely on payoffs and kickbacks from business people. One of the initial sparks for the Arab Spring was the leak of a cable in which a U.S. diplomat commented that "seemingly half " the business elite of Tunisia were members of President Ben Ali's family. The Arab Spring began in earnest when the old politics of governments being able to buy off their populations with public sector jobs and subsidies finally collapsed.