“阿拉伯之春”尚未释放外国投资热情

埃及：轰轰烈烈的革命

    埃及是阿拉伯之春政治经济意义上的样板。它是阿拉伯世界人口最多的国家，拥有最多元化的经济和最成熟的金融机构。其他今年以来经历了革命的北非国家要么经济规模太小（突尼斯），要么经济受到了重创（利比亚），近期内难以成为海外资本的理想目的地。

    埃及是中东地区最大的经济体，相对容易吸引海外投资；相比之下，在沙特，非海湾地区的外籍人士不能直接持有公开交易的沙特公司股票。埃及股票交易所的规模或流动性也远远难以比肩伦敦或东京。投资管理公司Vontobel的高级分析师布莱恩•班兹玛2010年曾经前往开罗物色潜在的投资目标。有几家上市公司给他留下了深刻影响，但由于成交量稀少，Vontobel只能决定一家也不买。

    西方投资者们为革命欢呼雀跃，但他们尚未将埃及视为一个投资机会，主要是因为政治动荡反过来也导致该国的经济陷入了瘫痪。即使是在11月份示威人群和军方爆发冲突之前，埃及的重要产业——旅游业已陷入停顿。邻国利比亚爆发革命后，很多在利比亚石油行业工作的埃及人要么回到了埃及家中，要么不再往家里寄钱。在阿拉伯之春前早已居高不下的埃及失业率已升至约40%。

    埃及央行支持本币和抵御通胀的努力具有副作用，受到惊吓的投资者可结清埃及投资，汇出资金，以免遭受汇率损失。与此同时，埃及央行的外汇储备已近用罄，外界普遍猜测今年6月曾拒绝国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund）贷款的埃及央行可能会在未来数月与国际货币基金组织达成类似协议。

    这些都是投资者所知道的事情，但真正阻止机构投资者进入埃及的却是大量的未知因素：控制了埃及很大一部分房地产资产的军队最终将在埃及国家治理体系中扮演怎样的角色？穆斯林兄弟会的伊斯兰教主义者以及其他政党在大选中的表现将如何？（下院选举11月末开始，随后是上院选举，2012年春季进行总统选举。）

    纽约证券经纪公司Auerbach Grayson的中东股票主管迈克尔•达乌德表示，鉴于所有的不确定性，目前根本没有办法知道外国资本何时会重返埃及以及被“阿拉伯之春”带入动荡的中东其他地区。他对埃及的看法要比其他人乐观得多：他跟踪一些基本消费品公司，如在埃及牛奶和乳制品市场上占据主导地位的Juhayna Food Industries；能源产品和服务供应商Elsewedy Electric以及总部位于开罗的CIB Bank。

    不过，他并不建议外国投资者贸然购买这些公司的股票。现在还不是时候，达乌德说，在选举计票开始前形势不会变得明朗。

    他说：“我宁可晚一点，也不愿太早。”

Egypt: A rolling revolution

    Egypt is the test case for the Arab Spring, politically and economically. It is the Arab world's most populous country and it has the most diversified economy and most mature financial institutions. Other North African economies that have had their own revolutions this year are either too small (Tunisia) or too badly damaged (Libya) to be candidates for much outside investment any time soon.

    Egypt is the largest Middle Eastern economy where it is comparatively easy for outsiders to invest; in Saudi Arabia, by contrast, foreigners from outside the Gulf cannot directly own publically traded Saudi equities. Not that the Egyptian stock exchange is anywhere as large or liquid as London or Tokyo's. Brian Bandsma, a senior analyst with the investment management firm Vontobel, went to Cairo to scope out possible investments in 2010. He saw a few public companies that impressed him but the firm decided not to buy any of them because they were too thinly traded.

    Western investors, who cheered the revolution, have yet to embrace Egypt as an investment opportunity, largely because of political uncertainty that is, in turn, paralyzing the country's economy. Even before clashes between protestors and the army broke out in November, tourism, a crucial industry, had ground to a halt. When revolution broke out in neighboring Libya, the many Egyptians who worked in that country's oil industry either came home or stopped sending money to their families. Egyptian unemployment, already high before the Arab Spring, has risen to about 40%.

    Efforts by the Egyptian Central Bank to support the Egyptian pound and head off inflation had the side effect of making it possible for skittish investors to liquidate their Egyptian investments and take their money out of the country without getting killed on the exchange rate. Meanwhile, the bank's reserves have been nearly depleted and it was widely expected that Egypt, which rejected an International Monetary Fund loan in June, would have to make some kind of deal with the IMF within the next few months.

    And those are the things investors know about; what's really keeping institutions out of Egypt are countless unknown factors: What role will the military, which controls a sizable chunk of the country's real estate, ultimately play in the governing of Egypt? How will the Islamists of the Muslim Brotherhood and other parties fare in major elections? (Elections for the lower house of parliament began in late November to be followed by elections for the upper house and for a new president in spring 2012.)

    Michael Daoud, head of Middle East equities at Auerbach Grayson, a New York brokerage specializing in the Middle East, says given all the uncertainty there's just no way to know when foreign capital will return to Egypt and other parts of the region that have been thrust into turmoil by the Arab Spring. He's more bullish on Egypt than many: he is tracking stable companies such as Juhayna Food Industries, which dominates the Egyptian market for milk and dairy products; energy products and services supplier Elsewedy Electric, and Cairo-based CIB Bank.

    Still, he can't recommend that an interested foreign investor rush out and buy stakes in those companies. Not now, Daoud says. Things won't start to get clearer until the election returns start to come in.

    "I'd rather be a little late," he says, "than too early."