2011年共同基金业五虎

赫斯曼策略全回报基金

    基金经理：约翰•赫斯曼

    交易代码： HSTRX

    资产规模： 27亿美元

    保守配置平均回报率： 2.2%

    今年迄今回报率： 5.8%

    目前看好的投资：矿业股

    赫斯曼预计几年内金价还将保持高位。他一直在买进矿业公司纽蒙特矿业公司（Newmont Mining）和 阿哥尼可老鹰矿场（Agnico-Eagle Mines）的股票。

    约翰•赫斯曼不是一个激进的冒险者。他的保本策略意味着在牛市狂飙的时候，他的基金表现落后于股市。但在像2011年这样的黑暗时期就会脱颖而出。这位49岁的前经济学教授（他有足够的智力在闲暇时研究孤独症的遗传因素）每周发给投资者的、充满机敏的信函拥有众多拥趸。特别是今年1月，他躲在马里兰州郊区办公室里给投资者写了一封信，信中大致描述了他对美联储（Federal Reserve）所谓二次量化宽松政策的效果非常担心。他在最后写到，二次量化宽松“的逆向操作几乎肯定会给美国经济带来严重的冲击”。

    赫斯曼据此对自己的投资组合进行了相应管理。赫斯曼策略全回报基金（Hussman Strategic Total Return）是他管理的三支基金之一，主要投资美国国债。但他可以将至多30%的资产配置于贵金属类股票、公用事业和外汇。由于黄金采矿类股的股价走势落后于黄金现货价格，赫斯曼增持贵金属采矿类股至原来的13倍，赚了钱。美国国债价格的上涨也带来了收益，但赫斯曼回避投资上涨更快的长期美国国债。他认为现在长期美国国债具有很强的投机性，利率上涨1%就可能会使这些债券的市值缩水15%。今年春季，赫斯曼曾预言股价已经达到岌岌可危的高位。8月份时他预言美国将陷入新一轮衰退，这是基于他对所跟踪的几十个数据的分析，包括股市点位、信贷利差、GDP增速和制造业报告等。

    目前，他有很多资金投资于期限较短的政府债券，并回避投资大多数股票。“投资者可能都有不撞南墙不回头的倾向，”他说。“我们希望比其他人更早躲开。”

Hussman Strategic Total Return

    Manager: John Hussman

    Ticker: HSTRX

    Assets: $2.7 billion

    Conservative allocation average: 2.2%

    Year-to-date return: 5.8%

    What he likes now: Mining stocks

    Hussman expects the price of gold to stay elevated for years. He's been buying up shares of miners Newmont Mining and Agnico-Eagle Mines.

    John Hussman isn't a big risk-taker. His strategy of preserving capital means that his fund will lag behind the stock market when bull markets are raging. But in difficult years like 2011, Hussman shines. The 49-year-old former economics professor -- who has the intellectual wattage to research the genetic causes of autism in his spare time -- has also earned a following for his astute weekly letters to investors. Notably, last January he holed up in his office in suburban Maryland and wrote a letter outlining his grave concerns about the effects of the Federal Reserve's so-called QE2 stimulus program. QE2, he concluded, "is almost impossible to reverse without extreme disruption to the economy."

    Hussman has managed his portfolio accordingly. In the total return fund, one of three he manages, he invests mostly in Treasuries. But he can allocate up to 30% of assets to precious-metal stocks, utilities, and foreign currencies. With gold-mining stocks lagging the metal's spot price, Hussman increased holdings of precious-metals miners 13-fold -- and profited. A rise in Treasury prices also led to gains, though Hussman avoided faster-rising long-term Treasuries, which today he considers dangerously speculative. A 1% rise in interest rates, he warns, can wipe out 15% of their value. By spring, Hussman was calling stocks dangerously overpriced. And by August he was predicting another U.S. recession. He came to that conclusion by analyzing dozens of data points he monitors, including stock market levels, credit spreads, GDP growth, and manufacturing reports.

    For now, he's keeping a lot of money in shorter-dated government debt and avoiding most stocks. "Investors have this tendency to wait till the train is right in front of them before they move off the track," he says. "We prefer to panic before everyone else does."